A View from 2025 on the NATO 2030 Transatlantic Agenda

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 125 - 143, 30.06.2025

Murat Demirel

https://doi.org/10.54472/jobig.1727260

Öz

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is an international organization founded in 1949, based on collective defense and prioritizing military cooperation. It has proven its military effectiveness in the international system. Since its establishment, NATO has sought to adapt to the changing conditions of the international system and has outlined key strategic directions. As part of an initiative launched in 2019, NATO developed a strategy titled “NATO 2030.” In this context, the adoption of the NATO 2030 Agenda at the Brussels Summit in June 2021 marked a significant step toward outlining a long-term vision aimed at strengthening the Alliance’s political cohesion, resilience, and global engagement. However, under the new threat perceptions triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the extent to which NATO's 2030 Agenda aligns with emerging circumstances has come into question. This study examines the trajectory of NATO’s 2030 strategy from the perspective of the year 2025. The research question of the study is formulated as follows: “To what extent do the core policies outlined in the NATO 2030 Agenda match up with the policies presented in NATO’s discourse in 2025?” Within this scope, the study employs content analysis to examine 69 speeches—most of which were delivered by the NATO Secretary General—published under the "Speeches and Transcripts" section of NATO’s official website between January 1, 2025, and June 9, 2025. The analysis provides insights into NATO’s threat perceptions and key policy trends and assesses the points of convergence and divergence between these findings and the 2030 strategy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

NATO , NATO 2030 , Ukraine , China’s Build-up , Russia

‘NATO 2030’ Transatlantik Gündemine 2025 Yılından Bir Bakış

Öz

Kuzey Atlantik Antlaşması Örgütü (NATO) 1949 yılında kurulmuş, müşterek savunmayı temel alan ve askeri alanda işbirliğini ön planda tutan, uluslararası sistemde sahadaki askeri etkinliğini kanıtlamış bir uluslararası örgüttür. Kuruluşundan bugüne NATO, uluslararası sistemdeki değişen şartlara uyum sağlamaya çalışmış, temel stratejiler belirlemiştir. 2019 yılında başlayan bir çabayla, “NATO 2030” başlıklı bir strateji geliştirmiştir. Bu bağlamda, Haziran 2021'deki Brüksel Zirvesi'nde NATO 2030 Gündemi'nin kabul edilmesi, İttifak'ın siyasi uyumunu, dayanıklılığını ve küresel katılımını güçlendirmeyi amaçlayan uzun vadeli bir vizyon çizme yönünde önemli bir girişim olmuştur. Ancak, Rusya'nın 2022'de Ukrayna'yı tam ölçekli işgaliyle tetiklenen yeni tehdit algıları, NATO 2030 gündeminin ortaya çıkan koşullara ne ölçüde uyumlu olduğu hususunda soru işaretleri doğurmuştur. Bu çalışma, NATO’nun 2030 stratejisinin gidişatını, 2025 yılından bir bakışla incelemektedir. Çalışmanın araştırma sorusu “NATO 2030 Gündemi dâhilindeki temel politikalar ile 2025 yılındaki NATO söylemlerinin ortaya koyduğu politikalar ne ölçüde örtüşmektedir?” şeklinde kurgulanmıştır. Bu kapsamda çalışma, içerik analizi yöntemini kullanarak NATO’nun resmi internet sayfasında “Konuşmalar ve Transkripsiyon” sekmesi altında yer alan 1 Ocak 2025 tarihinden 9 Haziran 2025 tarihine kadar çoğunluğuna yakını NATO Genel Sekreteri tarafından yapılmış 69 konuşmayı inceleyerek NATO’nun tehdit algılamaları ve temel politika eğilimlerine dair çıkarımlarda bulunmuş, ilgili çıktıların 2030 stratejisi ile örtüşen ve ayrışan noktalarına dair çözümlemelerde bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

NATO , NATO 2030 , Ukrayna , Çin’in Güçlenmesi , Rusya

Kaynakça

• Cambridge Çevrimiçi Sözlük. (t.y.). Resilient. Cambridge Dictionary. https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english-turkish/resilient?q=resilience (Erişim tarihi: 15 Haziran 2025).
• Kecskeméthy, K.S. (2021). The NATO 2030 Report. Strategic Priorities of the Alliance. International Conference Knowledge-based Organization. 27 (1), ss. 118-124.
• Moller, S. B., & Rynning, S. (2021). Revitalizing Transatlantic Relations: NATO 2030 and Beyond. The Washington Quarterly, 44(1), 177–197. https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2021.1896133
• NATO. (t.y.) NATO 2030: Making a Strong Alliance Even Stronger. https://www.nato.int/nato2030/index.html (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (25 Kasım 2020). NATO 2030: United for a New Era - Analysis and Recommendations of the Reflection Group Appointed by the NATO Secretary General. www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/12/pdf/201201-Reflection-Group-Final-Report-Uni.pdf (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (Haziran 2021). NATO 2030 [Factsheet]. https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2021/6/pdf/2106-factsheet-nato2030-en.pdf (Erişim Tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (13 Ocak 2025). by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs and Subcommittee on Security and Defence [Remarks]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_232125.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (14 Ocak 2025). by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte with the President of Finland Alexander Stubb and the Prime Minister of Estonia Kristen Michal at the Baltic Sea NATO Allies Summit. [Joint press conference]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_232116.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (15 Ocak 2025). by the Chair of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the meeting of the Military Committee in Chiefs of Defence [Opening remarks]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/naönltohq/opinions_232160.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (16 Ocak 2025). by the Chair of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Christopher Cavoli and the Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, Admiral Pierre Vandier [Joint Press Conference]. Speeches&Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_232213.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (23 Ocak 2025). by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte during a panel discussion “Your Country First – Win With Us” at the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland [Remarks]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_232545.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (3 Şubat 2025). by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte with the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer.[Joint press conference] Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_232757.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (12 Şubat 2025). by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte ahead of the meeting of NATO Defence Ministers in Brussels [Pre-Ministerial press conference]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_232941.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (13 Şubat 2025). by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the North Atlantic Council in Defence Ministers Session [Opening Remarks]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_232949.htm?selectedLocale=en( Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (17 Şubat 2025). by NATO Deputy Secretary General Radmila Shekerinska at the opening ceremony of the Joint Analysis, Training and Education Centre [Remarks]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_232954.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (20 Şubat 2025). by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte followed by a Q&A at the Comenius University, in Bratislava [Speech]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_233223.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (24 Şubat 2025). by NATO Deputy Secretary General Radmila Shekerinska at the ceremony marking three years of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine [Remarks]. Speeches & Transcripts.https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_233466.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO (28 Nisan 2025). by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the ceremony marking the 70th Anniversary of Germany in NATO [Speech]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_234896.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (20 Mart 2025). by NATO Deputy Secretary General Radmila Shekerinska at the European Parliament’s Committee on Security and Defence followed by a moderated discussion. [Opening Remarks]. Speeches&Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_233899.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (26 Mart 2025). by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte followed by moderated discussion at the Warsaw School of Economics [Speech]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_233924.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (2 Nisan 2025). by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte ahead of the meetings of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs [Pre-ministerial press conference]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_234072.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (3 Nisan 2025). by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs in Brussels [Remarks]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_234085.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (4 Nisan 2025). by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte following the meetings of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs [Press Conference]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_234095.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (8 Nisan 2025). by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte with the Minister of Defence of Japan, Gen Nakatani [Remarks]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_234397.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (9 Nisan 2025). by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte with the Prime Minister of Japan, Shigeru Ishiba [Press Conference]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_234471.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (25 Nisan 2025). Conversation with NATO Deputy Secretary General Radmila Shekerinska at the 2025 NATO Youth Summit [Setting the scene]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_234806.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (9 Mayıs 2025). with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and the Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz [Joint press conference]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_235026.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (14 Mayıs 2025a) by Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, Chair of the NATO Military Committee [Press Conference]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_235097.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (14 Mayıs 2025b) by Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, Chair of the NATO Military Committee [Opening Remarks]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_235099.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (15 Mayıs 2025). by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte following the Informal meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs in Antalya. [Press Conference]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_235107.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (21 Mayıs 2025). with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and the President of Czechia, Petr Pavel [Joint Press Conference]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_235514.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (26 Mayıs 2025). by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, followed by a moderated conversation [Address]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_235647.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (31 Mayıs 2022 [Güncelleme]. 2021 NATO Summit. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/184620.htm (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (4 Haziran 2025) by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte ahead of the meeting of NATO Defence Ministers in Brussels [Pre-ministerial press conference]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_235761.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (5 Haziran 2025). by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte following the meeting of NATO Ministers of Defence in Brussels [Press Conference]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_235894.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (9 Haziran 2025). Building a Better NATO - Speech by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at Chatham House - London, United Kingdom. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_235867.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (24 Haziran 2025). by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the NATO Public Forum [Remarks]. Speeches & Transcripts. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_236426.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 25 Haziran 2025).
• NATO News. (14 Haziran 2021). NATO Secretary General's press conference at NATO Summit Brussels, 14 JUN 2021 [Video]. Youtube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChB5b_J5Ddo (Erişim Tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• NATO. (14 Haziran 2021). Brussels Summit Communiqué - Issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Brussels 14 June 2021. NATO News. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_185000.htm?selectedLocale=en (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025). Oxford Çevrimiçi Sözlük. (t.y.). Resilience. Oxford Learner’s Dictionary. https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/definition/english/resilience?q=resilience (Erişim tarihi: 15 Haziran 2025).
• T.C. Dışişleri Bakanlığı. (t.y.) NATO 2030: Yeni Bir Çağ İçin Birliktelik [Dış Politika / Uluslararası Kuruluşlar ve İlişkilerimiz / Kuzey Atlantik Antlaşması Teşkilatı]. https://www.mfa.gov.tr/nato-2030.tr.mfa (Erişim tarihi, 15 Haziran 2025).
• Thierry Tardy (2020). “NATO 2030. United for a new era”: a Digest. NATO Defense College. http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep32322