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Turizmin Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerindeki Etkisi (1963-2015)

Year 2018, Volume: 3 Issue: 1, 11 - 22, 30.06.2018
https://doi.org/10.31822/jomat.364321

Abstract

ÖZET





Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’ye gelen turist sayısının ekonomiye etkisini
incelemektir. Çalışmada Vektör Otoregresif (VAR) modeli, Dickey
-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) birim kök testleri, Johansen eş-bütünsellik ve Granger nedensellik testleri
kullanılmıştır. Çalışma, 1963
-2015 yılları arasındaki gelen turist sayısı, Gayri Safi
Yurt İçi Hasıla (GSYİH) ve GSYİH büyüme hızı değişkenleri kullanılarak
yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, gelen turist sayısı, GSYİH ve GSYİH büyüme
oranı arasında eş bütünsellik olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuç turizm ve
ekonomi arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkiye işaret etmektedir. Granger
nedensellik testinden elde edilen bulgular gelen turist sayısının GSYİH ve
GSYİH büyüme oranını tek yönlü etkilediğini, tersi bir etkileşimin olmadığı
göstermektedir. Bu sonuç Turizm Güdümlü İktisadi Büyüme (TGİB) hipotezini
desteklemektedir. Çalışma, aynı zamanda, milli gelire ve ekonomik büyümeye uzun
dönemli katkısı bulunan turizm sektörünün ekonomik kalkınmada daha etkin rol
oynayabilmesi için sektör temsilcilerinin ve politika yapıcıların birlikte
sürdürülebilir turizm politikaları üretmesi gerektiğini de ortaya koymaktadır.



Abstract

The objective of this paper is to examine the impact
of number of tourists on the economic growth of Turkey. In this paper, the
Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, (ADF),
Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests, Johansen cointegration and Granger
causality tests were used. The data covers the period from 1963 to 2015 for the
number of tourist arrivals (NT), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP growth
rate (GDPGR) variables. Thus, the existence of cointegration among the
variables of number of tourist arrivals, Gross Domestic Product and GDP growth
rate indicates that there is a long-run relationship among these variables. The
findings of Granger causality test indicate the existence of unidirectional
causality from the number of tourist arrivals to GDP and GDP growth rate but
not vice versa. Hence, the results are in support of tourism-led growth
hypothesis for the Turkish economy rather than the growth-led tourism
hypothesis. Meanwhile, the findings of this paper have an important
contribution for better understanding the role of tourism on the economic
growth of Turkey.









References

  • Akan, Y., Arslan, İ., & Işık, C. (2008). The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey. Journal of Tourism 9(2), 47–69.
  • Akinboade, O. A., & Braimoh, L. A. (2010). International Tourism and Economic Development in South Africa: A Granger Causality Test. International Journal of Tourism Research, 12(2), 149–163.
  • Antonakakis, N., Dragouni, M., & Filis, G. (2015). How Strong is the Linkage between Tourism and Economic Growth in Europe?. Economic Modelling, 44 , 142-155.
  • Bahar, O. (2006). Turizm Sektörünün Türkiye’nin Ekonomik Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkisi: VAR Analizi Yaklasımı. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Celal Bayar Üniversitesi, 13(2), 137-150.
  • Bayramoğlu, T., & Arı, Y. O. (2015). The Relationship between Tourism and Economic Growth in Greece Economy: A Time Series Analysis. Computational Methods in Social Sciences, 3(1), 89-93.
  • Belloumi, M. (2010). The Relationship between Tourism Receipts, Real Effective Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Tunisia. International journal of tourism research, 12(5), 550–560.
  • Brida, J. G., Sanchez Carrera, E. J., & Risso, W. A. (2008). Tourism’s Impact on Longrun Mexican Economic Growth. Economics Bulletin, 3(21), 1-8.
  • Chou, M. C. (2013). Does Tourism Development Promote Economic Growth in Transition Countries? A Panel Data Analysis. Economic Modelling, 33, 226-232.
  • Corrie, K., Stoeckl, N., & Chaiechi, T. (2013). Tourism and Economic Growth in Australia: An Empirical Investigation of Causal Links. Tourism Economics, 19(6), 1317-1344.
  • Cortés-Jiménez, I. (2008). Which Type of Tourism Matters to the Regional Economic Growth? The Cases of Spain and Italy. International journal of tourism research, 10(2), 127-139.
  • Dritsakis, N. (2004). Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece using Causality Analysis. Tourism Economics, 10(3) , 305-316.
  • Engle, R.F. and C.W.J. Granger (1987) Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing, Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
  • Fayissa, B., Nsiah, C., & Tadasse, B. (2007). The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth and Development in Africa. Working Papers 200716: Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance , 807-818.
  • Gautam, B. P. (2011). Tourism and Economic Growth in Nepal. NRB Economic Review, 23(2) , 18-30.
  • Gokovali, U. (2010). Contribution of Tourism to Economic Growth in Turkey. Anatolia, 21(1) , 139-153.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1988) Some recent developments in the concept of causality, Journal of Econometrics, 39, 199-211.
  • Greene, William H. (2003). Econometric Analysis. New York: Pearson Educational International.
  • Gunduz, L., & Hatemi-J, A. (2005). Is the Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Turkey?. Applied Economics Letters, 12(8) , 499-504.
  • Johansen, S. (1998). Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, pp.231-254.
  • Katircioglu, S. T. (2009). Revisiting the Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis for Turkey Using the Bounds Test and Johansen Approach for Cointegration. Tourism Management, 30(1), 17-20.
  • Kreishan, F. M. (2011). Time-series Evidence for Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis: A Case Study of Jordan. International Management Review, 7(1), 89-93.
  • Lazar, D., & Pop, F. (2012). A Note on Tourism Demand in Romania: Time Series Analysis and Relationship with Economic Growth. Managerial Challenges of the Contemporary Society, (4), 7-11.
  • Massidda, C., & Mattana, P. (2013). A SVECM Analysis of the Relationship between International Tourism Arrivals, GDP and Trade in Italy. Journal of Travel Research, 52(1) , 93-105.
  • Mishra, P., Rout, H. B., & Mohapatra, S. S. (2011). Causality between Tourism and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from India. European Journal of Social Sciences, 18(4), 518-527.
  • Njoya, E. T., & M. Karim. (2013). The Economic Impact of Inbound Tourism in Kenya: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(7), 911-932.
  • Nonthapot, S. (2014). The Relationship between Tourism and Economic Development in the Greater Mekong Sub-region: Panel Cointegration and Granger Causality. Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, 5(1 (9)), 44-51.
  • Nowak, J.-J., Sahli, M., & Cortés-Jiménez, I. (2007). Tourism, Capital Good Imports and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence for Spain. Tourism Economics, 13(4), 515-536.
  • Odhiambo, N. M. (2012). Is Tourism Development an Engine for Economic Growth? The Zambian Exprience. Economics, Management, and Financial Markets, (4), 87-100.
  • Ozturk, I., & Acaravci, A. (2009). On the Causality between Tourism Growth and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Turkey. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 5(25), 73-81.
  • Ridderstaat, J., Croes, R., & Nijkamp, P. (2014). Tourism and Long-run Economic Growth in Aruba. International Journal of Tourism Research, 16(5), 472-487.
  • Samırkaş, M., & Samırkaş, M. C. (2014). Turizm Sektörünün Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi işletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 15(1), 63-76.
  • Savaş, B., Beşkaya, A., & Şamiloğlu, F. (2010). Analysing the Impact of International Tourism on Economic Growth in Turkey. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 6(12) ,121-136.
  • T.C. Kültür ve Turizm Bakanlığı (2016). Turizm İstatistikleri, (http://www.kultur.gov.tr, Erişim 10 Kasım 2016).
  • Topalli, N. (2015). Turizm Sektörünün Türkiye’nin Ekonomik Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkisi: 1963-2011. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, (14) , 339-352.
  • Trang, N. H. M., & Duc, N. H. C. (2013). The Contribution of Tourism to Economic Growth in Thua Thien - Hue Province, Vietnam. Middle East Journal of Business, 8(1), 70-77.
  • Uysal, D., Erdoğan, S., & Mucuk, M. (2004). Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirleri İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasindaki İlişki (1992-2003). Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 1(8) , 162-170.
  • World Bank (2016). World Development Indicators, (http://www.worldbank.org, Erişim 10 Kasım 2016).
  • World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2014). World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). Madrid, Spain: Calle Capitán Haya, 42.
  • World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2016). World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). Madrid, Spain: Calle Capitán Haya, 42.
  • Yamak, N., Tanriöver, B., & Güneysu, F. (2012). Turizm–Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Sektör Bazinda bir İnceleme. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 26(2), 205-220.
  • Yavuz, N. Ç. (2006). Türkiye'de Turizm Gelirlerinin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisinin Testi: Yapısal Kırılma ve Nedensellik Analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 7 (2), 162-171.
  • Yıldırım, J., & Öcal, N. (2004). Tourism and Economic Growth in Turkey. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 15(52-53), 131-141.
  • Zhang, Z., Goh, C., & Li, H. (2015). Is the Growth of Tourism-specialised Economies Sustainable? A Case Study of Sanya and Zhangjiajie in China. Journal of China Tourism Research, 11(1), 35-52.

The Impact of Tourism on Turkish Economy (1963-2015)

Year 2018, Volume: 3 Issue: 1, 11 - 22, 30.06.2018
https://doi.org/10.31822/jomat.364321

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to examine the impact
of number of tourists on the economic growth of Turkey. In this paper, the
Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, (ADF),
Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests, Johansen cointegration and Granger
causality tests were used. The data covers the period from 1963 to 2015 for the
number of tourist arrivals (NT), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP growth
rate (GDPGR) variables.Thus, the existence of cointegration among the variables
of number of tourist arrivals, Gross Domestic Product and GDP growth rate
indicates that there is a long-run relationship among these variables.The
findings of Granger causality test indicate the existence of unidirectional
causality from the number of tourist arrivals to GDP and GDP growth rate but
not vice versa. Hence, the results are in support of tourism-led growth
hypothesis for the Turkish economy rather than the growth-led tourism
hypothesis.

References

  • Akan, Y., Arslan, İ., & Işık, C. (2008). The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey. Journal of Tourism 9(2), 47–69.
  • Akinboade, O. A., & Braimoh, L. A. (2010). International Tourism and Economic Development in South Africa: A Granger Causality Test. International Journal of Tourism Research, 12(2), 149–163.
  • Antonakakis, N., Dragouni, M., & Filis, G. (2015). How Strong is the Linkage between Tourism and Economic Growth in Europe?. Economic Modelling, 44 , 142-155.
  • Bahar, O. (2006). Turizm Sektörünün Türkiye’nin Ekonomik Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkisi: VAR Analizi Yaklasımı. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Celal Bayar Üniversitesi, 13(2), 137-150.
  • Bayramoğlu, T., & Arı, Y. O. (2015). The Relationship between Tourism and Economic Growth in Greece Economy: A Time Series Analysis. Computational Methods in Social Sciences, 3(1), 89-93.
  • Belloumi, M. (2010). The Relationship between Tourism Receipts, Real Effective Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Tunisia. International journal of tourism research, 12(5), 550–560.
  • Brida, J. G., Sanchez Carrera, E. J., & Risso, W. A. (2008). Tourism’s Impact on Longrun Mexican Economic Growth. Economics Bulletin, 3(21), 1-8.
  • Chou, M. C. (2013). Does Tourism Development Promote Economic Growth in Transition Countries? A Panel Data Analysis. Economic Modelling, 33, 226-232.
  • Corrie, K., Stoeckl, N., & Chaiechi, T. (2013). Tourism and Economic Growth in Australia: An Empirical Investigation of Causal Links. Tourism Economics, 19(6), 1317-1344.
  • Cortés-Jiménez, I. (2008). Which Type of Tourism Matters to the Regional Economic Growth? The Cases of Spain and Italy. International journal of tourism research, 10(2), 127-139.
  • Dritsakis, N. (2004). Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece using Causality Analysis. Tourism Economics, 10(3) , 305-316.
  • Engle, R.F. and C.W.J. Granger (1987) Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing, Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
  • Fayissa, B., Nsiah, C., & Tadasse, B. (2007). The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth and Development in Africa. Working Papers 200716: Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance , 807-818.
  • Gautam, B. P. (2011). Tourism and Economic Growth in Nepal. NRB Economic Review, 23(2) , 18-30.
  • Gokovali, U. (2010). Contribution of Tourism to Economic Growth in Turkey. Anatolia, 21(1) , 139-153.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1988) Some recent developments in the concept of causality, Journal of Econometrics, 39, 199-211.
  • Greene, William H. (2003). Econometric Analysis. New York: Pearson Educational International.
  • Gunduz, L., & Hatemi-J, A. (2005). Is the Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Turkey?. Applied Economics Letters, 12(8) , 499-504.
  • Johansen, S. (1998). Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, pp.231-254.
  • Katircioglu, S. T. (2009). Revisiting the Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis for Turkey Using the Bounds Test and Johansen Approach for Cointegration. Tourism Management, 30(1), 17-20.
  • Kreishan, F. M. (2011). Time-series Evidence for Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis: A Case Study of Jordan. International Management Review, 7(1), 89-93.
  • Lazar, D., & Pop, F. (2012). A Note on Tourism Demand in Romania: Time Series Analysis and Relationship with Economic Growth. Managerial Challenges of the Contemporary Society, (4), 7-11.
  • Massidda, C., & Mattana, P. (2013). A SVECM Analysis of the Relationship between International Tourism Arrivals, GDP and Trade in Italy. Journal of Travel Research, 52(1) , 93-105.
  • Mishra, P., Rout, H. B., & Mohapatra, S. S. (2011). Causality between Tourism and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from India. European Journal of Social Sciences, 18(4), 518-527.
  • Njoya, E. T., & M. Karim. (2013). The Economic Impact of Inbound Tourism in Kenya: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(7), 911-932.
  • Nonthapot, S. (2014). The Relationship between Tourism and Economic Development in the Greater Mekong Sub-region: Panel Cointegration and Granger Causality. Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, 5(1 (9)), 44-51.
  • Nowak, J.-J., Sahli, M., & Cortés-Jiménez, I. (2007). Tourism, Capital Good Imports and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence for Spain. Tourism Economics, 13(4), 515-536.
  • Odhiambo, N. M. (2012). Is Tourism Development an Engine for Economic Growth? The Zambian Exprience. Economics, Management, and Financial Markets, (4), 87-100.
  • Ozturk, I., & Acaravci, A. (2009). On the Causality between Tourism Growth and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Turkey. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 5(25), 73-81.
  • Ridderstaat, J., Croes, R., & Nijkamp, P. (2014). Tourism and Long-run Economic Growth in Aruba. International Journal of Tourism Research, 16(5), 472-487.
  • Samırkaş, M., & Samırkaş, M. C. (2014). Turizm Sektörünün Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi işletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 15(1), 63-76.
  • Savaş, B., Beşkaya, A., & Şamiloğlu, F. (2010). Analysing the Impact of International Tourism on Economic Growth in Turkey. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 6(12) ,121-136.
  • T.C. Kültür ve Turizm Bakanlığı (2016). Turizm İstatistikleri, (http://www.kultur.gov.tr, Erişim 10 Kasım 2016).
  • Topalli, N. (2015). Turizm Sektörünün Türkiye’nin Ekonomik Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkisi: 1963-2011. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, (14) , 339-352.
  • Trang, N. H. M., & Duc, N. H. C. (2013). The Contribution of Tourism to Economic Growth in Thua Thien - Hue Province, Vietnam. Middle East Journal of Business, 8(1), 70-77.
  • Uysal, D., Erdoğan, S., & Mucuk, M. (2004). Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirleri İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasindaki İlişki (1992-2003). Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 1(8) , 162-170.
  • World Bank (2016). World Development Indicators, (http://www.worldbank.org, Erişim 10 Kasım 2016).
  • World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2014). World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). Madrid, Spain: Calle Capitán Haya, 42.
  • World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2016). World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). Madrid, Spain: Calle Capitán Haya, 42.
  • Yamak, N., Tanriöver, B., & Güneysu, F. (2012). Turizm–Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Sektör Bazinda bir İnceleme. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 26(2), 205-220.
  • Yavuz, N. Ç. (2006). Türkiye'de Turizm Gelirlerinin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisinin Testi: Yapısal Kırılma ve Nedensellik Analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 7 (2), 162-171.
  • Yıldırım, J., & Öcal, N. (2004). Tourism and Economic Growth in Turkey. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 15(52-53), 131-141.
  • Zhang, Z., Goh, C., & Li, H. (2015). Is the Growth of Tourism-specialised Economies Sustainable? A Case Study of Sanya and Zhangjiajie in China. Journal of China Tourism Research, 11(1), 35-52.
There are 43 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Tourism (Other)
Journal Section Research Papers
Authors

Ahmad Wali Furmolly

Berna Kırkulak Uludağ 0000-0001-9622-0363

Publication Date June 30, 2018
Acceptance Date June 5, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 3 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Furmolly, A. W., & Kırkulak Uludağ, B. (2018). Turizmin Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerindeki Etkisi (1963-2015). Disiplinlerarası Akademik Turizm Dergisi, 3(1), 11-22. https://doi.org/10.31822/jomat.364321