Ekonomik Kriz Sürecinde Pamuk Çiftçilerinin Üretim Kararları ve Piyasa Davranışlarındaki Değişimlerin İncelenmesi; 2018 Türkiye Ekonomik Krizi Örneği

Year 2026, Volume: 23 Issue: 2, 888 - 904, 16.03.2026

Muhammed Ali Palabiçak , Gülsüm Ödemiş

https://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.1782730

https://izlik.org/JA64LJ76XC

Abstract

Türkiye gelişmiş tekstil sanayisi ve pamuk üretimiyle dünyada önde gelen ülkeler arasında yer almaktadır. Ülkede 2018 yılında başlayan ekonomik kriz 2020 yılında COVID-19 salgını ile daha da tırmanmış nitekim 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş depremleri ile ülkenin kriz karnesi daha da büyümüştür. Girdilerde dışa bağımlılığın yüksek olduğu tarım sektörü bu süreçten olumsuz yönde etkilenmiş ve üreticilerin üretim kararlarında değişiklikler yaşanmasına neden olmuştur. Bu çalışmada, ülkede gerçekleştirilen pamuk üretiminin büyük bölümünü temsil eden Harran ovasında pamuk üretimi yapan üreticilerin kriz etkisi altında üretim süreçlerinin nasıl etkilendiğini ortaya koymak amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmada 165 pamuk üreticisi ile yüz yüze anket çalışması gerçekleştirilmiştir. Üreticilerin kriz öncesi dönem ve kriz sürecinde girdi ve ürün piyasalarını takiplerinin ilişkiselliğini test etmek üzere ki kare bağımsızlık testleri ile girdi ve ürün piyasalarını takip sıklıkları arasında ilişki olup olmadığını analiz etmek üzere bağımlı örneklem t-testleri kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analizler sonucunda, kriz sürecinde çiftçilerin pamuk ve girdi fiyatlarını iç ve dış piyasalarda takip etme oranlarında ve piyasaları takip etme sıklıklarında, kriz öncesi döneme kıyasla istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir artış yaşandığı (p<0,05) tespit edilmiştir. Nitekim girdilerde dışa bağımlılığın yüksek olduğu bir üretimde, ekonomik krizlerin etkisiyle döviz kurlarında yaşanan yüksek artışlar, üreticilerin üretim ve satış kararlarını olumsuz yönde etkileyerek üretimi azaltmakta ve likidite varlıklarının oluşum sürecinde düzensizliğe yol açmaktadır. Ürün fiyatlarının artmasına ilişkin bir beklenti ile ertelenen satış kararı, girdi maliyetlerinde sürekli artışla mukayese edildiğinde üretici için daha kötü sonuçlar doğurabilmektedir. Nitekim girdi fiyatlarındaki yüksek artışların yanı sıra, uluslararası piyasaların baskısı altında iç piyasada pamuk fiyatlarının beklenen artışı gösterememesi, çiftçilerin üretim kararlarını büyük ölçüde etkilemiş ve maliyetleri düşürme yönünde harekete geçmelerine neden olmuştur. Bu durum üretimi olumsuz etkileyerek verim kayıplarına ve dolayısıyla üretimin azalmasına neden olmuştur. Bu çalışma sonucunda tarımsal ürünlere yönelik uygulanan politikaların sadece tarıma dayalı sanayiyi değil, aynı zamanda yurtiçi üretimin ana kaynağı olan çiftçileri de koruması gerektiği sonucunu bir kez daha vurgulamak doğru olacaktır.

Keywords

Pamuk üretimi , Ekonomik krizler , Üretim kararları , Karşılaştırmalı analizler , Şanlıurfa

Ethical Statement

This study was prepared under the permission numbered 2023/103, dated 16/06/2023, from the Ethics Committee of Harran University Social and Human Sciences Ethics Board.

Supporting Institution

TÜBİTAK

Thanks

The data used in the preparation of this study was obtained from the project number 1919B012203976, supported by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye (TÜBİTAK) 2209/A program, Türkiye.

Examination of Changes in Production Decisions and Market Behavior of Cotton Farmers During the Economic Crisis; The Example of 2018 Türkiye Economic Crisis

https://izlik.org/JA64LJ76XC

Abstract

Türkiye is among the leading countries in the world with its developed textile industry and cotton production. The economic crisis that started in the country in 2018 escalated further with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and the country's crisis report card grew even bigger with the February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. The agricultural sector, which has a high dependency on foreign inputs, was negatively affected by this process and caused changes in the production decisions of producers. This study aims to reveal how the production processes of cotton farmers in the Harran plain, which represents the majority of cotton production in the country, were affected by the crisis. In the study, a face-to-face survey was conducted with 165 cotton farmers. Chi-square independence tests were used to test the relationship between the farmers' monitoring of input and product markets in the pre-crisis period and during the crisis and paired sample t-tests were used to analyze whether there was a relationship between the frequencies of monitoring input and product markets. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was a statistically significant increase (p<0.05) in the rate of farmers following cotton and input prices in domestic and foreign markets and the frequency of following the markets during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Indeed, in a production where external dependency on inputs is high, high increases in exchange rates due to economic crises negatively affect the decisions of producers, reducing production and causing irregularities in the formation process of liquidity assets. A postponed sales decision due to an expectation of an increase in product prices may lead to worse outcomes for the farmers when compared to a continuous increase in input costs. In fact, in addition to the high increases in input prices, the fact that cotton prices in the domestic market failed to show the expected increase under the pressure of international markets greatly affected the production decisions of farmers and caused them to take action to reduce costs. This negatively affected production and caused losses in yield and therefore a decrease in production. As a result of this study, it would be correct to reiterate the conclusion that the policies implemented for agricultural products should protect not only the agriculture-based industry but also the farmers who are the main source of domestic production.

Keywords

Cotton production , Economic crises , Production decisions , Comparative analysis , Şanlıurfa

Ethical Statement

This study was prepared under the permission numbered 2023/103, dated 16/06/2023, from the Ethics Committee of Harran University Social and Human Sciences Ethics Board.

Supporting Institution

Tübitak

Thanks

The data used in the preparation of this study was obtained from the project number 1919B012203976, supported by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye (TÜBİTAK) 2209/A program, Türkiye.

References

• Ağır, H. B. and Akbay, C. (2022). Impact of contract farming on beef cattle farmers' income: a propensity score matching analysis. Kahramanmaras Sutcu Imam University Journal of Agriculture and Nature, 25(2), 392-399. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.896094
• Ahmad, S., Iqbal, M., Muhammad, T., Mehmood, A., Ahmad, S. and Hasanuzzaman, M. (2018). Cotton productivity enhanced through transplanting and early sowing. Acta Scientiarum. Biological Sciences, 40, 1-7. https://doi.org/10.4025/actascibiolsci.v40i1.34610
• Akın, S. and Şimşek, M. (2021). Monitoring of quality-quantity and determination of water application efficiency in water returning from irrigation under farmer conditions in Harran Plain. Journal of Agriculture Faculty of Ege University, 58(3), 365-376 (In Turkish). https://doi.org/10.20289/zfdergi.668163
• Akkoç, S. (2023). The 2018 Currency Shock and Its Reflections on The Turkish Economy. International Review of Economics and Management, 11(2), 75-96 (In Turkish). https://doi.org/10.18825/iremjournal.1366215 Asuero, A. G., Sayago, A. and González, A. G. (2006). The correlation coefficient: An overview. Critical reviews in analytical chemistry, 36(1), 41-59. https://doi.org/10.1080/10408340500526766
• Basal, H., Karademir, E., Goren, H. K., Sezener, V., Dogan, M. N., Gencsoylu, I. and Erdogan, O. (2019). Cotton production in Turkey and Europe. Cotton production, 297-321. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119385523.ch14
• Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB). (2024). Inflation data. https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/ connect/TR/TCMB+TR/Main+Menu/Istatistikler/Enflasyon+Verileri/ (Accessed Date: 01.05.2024).
• Cevahir, E. (2020). A guide to quantitative data analysis with SPSS. Kibele Publications, Istanbul, Türkiye.
• Çuhadar, M. and Kaytancı, M. (2023). Determining the Factors Affecting Consumers' Green Product Purchasing Behavior. Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences, 10(4), 1129-1136. (In Turkish) https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.1331075
• Engin, M., and Özdemir, G. (2022). The Effect of Multi-Dimensional Policies in Cooperatives on Partner Satisfaction and Cooperative Awareness: Agricultural Credit Cooperatives. Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty, 19(1), 28-38. (In Turkish) https://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.865374
• FAOSTAT. (2025a). Food and Agriculture Organization Statistical Database. https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/ QCL (Accessed Date: 04.03.2025).
• FAOSTAT. (2025b). Food and Agriculture Organization Statistical Database. https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/ TCL (Accessed Date: 04.03.2025).
• Fisher, R. A. (1922). On the mathematical foundations of theoretical statistics. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical or Physical Character, 222(594-604), 309-368. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.1922.0009
• Google Earth Engine. (2024). https://earthengine.google.com/timelapse/ (Accessed Date: 01.05.2024).
• Gülcan, Y., Akgüngör, S. and Kuştepeli, Y. (2011). Knowledge generation and innovativeness in Turkish textile industry: Comparison of Istanbul and Denizli. European Planning Studies, 19(7), 1229-1243. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2011.573134
• Haviland, M. G. (1990). Yates's correction for continuity and the analysis of 2×2 contingency tables. Statistics in Medicine, 9(4), 363-367. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780090403
• Holt, D., Scott, A. J. and Ewings, P. D. (1980). Chi‐squared tests with survey data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (General), 143(3), 303-320. https://doi.org/10.2307/2982131
• İkikat Tümer, E., Ağır, H. B., and Aydoğan, İ. (2020). Evaluating technical efficiency of hair goat farms in Turkey: The case of Mersin Province. Tropical Animal Health and Production, 52(6), 3707-3712. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11250-020-02407-2
• Işık, A., and Atun, İ. (1998). Agricultural structure and mechanisation characteristics of the Şanlıurfa-Harran Plain. Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry, 22(2), 151-160. (In Turkish) https://journals.tubitak.gov.tr/ agriculture/vol22/iss2/7
• Kalaycı, Ş. (2010). SPSS Applied Multivariate Statistical Techniques (Vol. 5, p. 359). Asil Publishing and Distribution, Ankara, Türkiye (In Turkish).
• Kanji, G. K. (2006). 100 Statistical Tests (3rd ed.). Sage Publications, London, United Kingdom.
• Karaalp, H. S. and Yilmaz, N. D. (2012). Assessment of trends in the comparative advantage and competitiveness of the Turkish textile and clothing industry in the enlarged EU market. Fibres and Textiles in Eastern Europe. 20, 3(92), 8-12. https://yadda.icm.edu.pl/baztech/element/bwmeta1.element.baztech-article-BPW7-0021-0069
• Kaya, M. (2004). The Phenomenon of Polygamy in the Southeastern Anatolia Region (Case of Şanlıurfa) (MSc. Thesis). Harran University, Institute of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology, Şanlıurfa, Türkiye. (In Turkish) https://tez.yok.gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi/tezDetay.jsp?id=05BaL04SrOsdFh2P-Q6emQ&no=E_CKz5 LF94O5NB7YsL7MmA
• Khan, M. A., Wahid, A., Ahmad, M., Tahir, M. T., Ahmed, M., Ahmad, S. and Hasanuzzaman, M. (2020). World cotton production and consumption: An overview. In Cotton Production and Uses: Agronomy, Crop Protection, and Postharvest Technologies (pp. 1-7). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-1472-2_1
• Kılıç, S. (2016). Chi-square test. Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, 6(3), 180-182. https://doi.org/10.5455/jmood.20160803110534
• Kim, T. K. (2015). T test as a parametric statistic. Korean Journal of Anesthesiology, 68(6), 540. https://doi.org/10.4097/kjae.2015.68.6.540
• Loizou, E., Karelakis, C., Galanopoulos, K. and Mattas, K. (2019). The role of agriculture as a development tool for a regional economy. Agricultural Systems, 173, 482-490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.04.002
• Lorcu, F. (2015). Data Analysis with Examples: SPSS Applications. Detay Publishing, Ankara, Türkiye (In Turkish).
• Magnello, M. E. (2005). Karl Pearson, paper on the chi-square goodness of fit test (1900). In Landmark Writings in Western Mathematics 1640-1940 (pp. 724-731). Elsevier Science. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-044450871-3/50137-6
• Maheshwari, P. and Kovalchuk, I. (2016). Genetic transformation of crops for oil production. In Thomas, A. M., Douglas, G. H., David, F. H., and Randall, J. W. (Eds.), Industrial Oil Crops (pp. 379–412). AOCS Press, Urbana. ISBN 9781893997981. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-1-893997-98-1.00014-2
• McHugh, M. L. (2013). The chi-square test of independence. Biochemia Medica, 23(2), 143-149. https://doi.org/10.11613/BM.2013.018
• Miran, B. (2003). Basic Statistics. Bornova, Ege University Press, İzmir, Türkiye (In Turkish).
• Mishra, P., Singh, U., Pandey, C. M., Mishra, P. and Pandey, G. (2019). Application of Student's t-test, analysis of variance, and covariance. Annals of Cardiac Anaesthesia, 22(4), 407-411. https://doi.org/10.4103/aca.ACA_94_19
• Munir, H., Rasul, F., Ahmad, A., Sajid, M., Ayub, S., Arif, M., Iqbal, P., Khan, A., Fatima, Z., Ahmad, S. and Khan, M. A. (2020). Diverse uses of cotton: From products to byproducts. In Cotton Production and Uses: Agronomy, Crop Protection, and Postharvest Technologies (pp. 629-641). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-1472-2_30
• Newbold, P. (1995). Statistics for Business and Economics. Prentice-Hall International, New Jersey, United States.
• Nowacki, A. (2017). Chi-square and Fisher’s exact tests. Biostatistics and Epidemiology Lecture Series. Cleveland Clinic Journal of Medicine, 84, 9. https://doi.org/10.3949/ccjm.84.s2.04
• Ökten, Ş. and Tüysüz, S. (2017). Rural development and women’s poverty: The case of Şanlıurfa Harran. Trakya University Journal of Social Sciences, 19(2), 381-404. (In Turkish) https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/392055
• Palabıçak, M. A. and Binici, T. (2023). Investigating the effects of dynamics and crises on livestock production in developing countries by using time series and future forecasting with ARIMA: A case study of sheep production in Türkiye. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 21(6), 5785-5806. https://doi.org/10.15666/aeer/2106_57855806
• Ross, A., Willson, V. L., Ross, A. and Willson, V. L. (2017). Paired samples t-test. In Basic and Advanced Statistical Tests: Writing Results Sections and Creating Tables and Figures (pp. 17-19). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-6351-086-8_4
• Serin, H., Taşdelen, S. M., Seyhan, D., Çağlayan, T. and Tekin, M. E. (2023). Historical development of sampling distributions: Chi-square, t, and F distributions. Veterinary Physicians Association Journal, 94(1), 96-109. (In Turkish) https://doi.org/10.33188/vetheder.1177510
• Sevinç, M. R. (2021). Farmers’ perception of agricultural cooperatives: The case of Şanlıurfa, Turkey. Ciência Rural, 51, e20200445. https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-8478cr20200445
• Sezal, L. (2020). The effect of the August 2018 crisis on the Turkish banking sector. Journal of Economics and Research, 1(1), 17-32. (In Turkish) https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1633286
• Sheidai, M., Noormohammadi, Z. and Alishah, O. (2024). Future cultivation of cotton for industrial use: Landscape cytogenetics and species distribution modeling. Genetic Resources and Crop Evolution, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10722-024-01916-5
• Tallarida, R. J. and Murray, R. B. (1987). Chi-square test. In Manual of Pharmacologic Calculations (pp. 379-412). Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-4974-0_43
• Tokel, D., Doğan, I., Hocaoglu-Ozyigit, A. and Ozyigit, I. I. (2022). Cotton agriculture in Turkey and worldwide economic impacts of Turkish cotton. Journal of Natural Fibers, 19(15), 10648-10667. https://doi.org/10.1080/15440478.2021.2002759
• TURKSTAT. (2025a). Turkish Statistical Institute Statistical Database. https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=92& locale=tr (Accessed Date: 04.03.2025).
• TURKSTAT. (2025b). Turkish Statistical Institute Statistical Database, Inflation and price statistics. https://data.tuik. gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=Enflasyon-ve-Fiyat-106 (Accessed Date: 04.03.2025).
• Üçok, S. and Yang, X. (2025). Chemical composition and methane production potential of agricultural residues: Olive pomace, cottonseed meal and red pepper processing waste. Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty, 22(1), 195-204. https://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.1513484
• Uyanık, S. and Çelikel, D. C. (2019). General status of the Turkish textile industry. Technical Sciences Journal, 9(1), 32-41. (In Turkish) https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/649677
• Wendel, J. F., Brubaker, C. L. and Seelanan, T. (2010). The origin and evolution of Gossypium. In Physiology of Cotton (pp. 1-18). Dordrecht, Netherlands: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3195-2_1
• Yenigun, I., Bilgili, A. V., Yesilnacar, M. I. and Yalcin, H. (2021). Seasonal and spatial variations in water quality of deep aquifer in the Harran Plain, GAP Project, Southeastern Anatolia, Turkey. Environmental Earth Sciences, 80, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-021-09858-2
• Zimmerman, D. W. (1997). Teacher’s corner: A note on interpretation of the paired-samples t test. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 22(3), 349-360. https://doi.org/10.3102/10769986022003349