Ekonomik Kriz Sürecinde Pamuk Çiftçilerinin Üretim Kararları ve Piyasa Davranışlarındaki Değişimlerin İncelenmesi; 2018 Türkiye Ekonomik Krizi Örneği

Öz

Türkiye gelişmiş tekstil sanayisi ve pamuk üretimiyle dünyada önde gelen ülkeler arasında yer almaktadır. Ülkede 2018 yılında başlayan ekonomik kriz 2020 yılında COVID-19 salgını ile daha da tırmanmış nitekim 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş depremleri ile ülkenin kriz karnesi daha da büyümüştür. Girdilerde dışa bağımlılığın yüksek olduğu tarım sektörü bu süreçten olumsuz yönde etkilenmiş ve üreticilerin üretim kararlarında değişiklikler yaşanmasına neden olmuştur. Bu çalışmada, ülkede gerçekleştirilen pamuk üretiminin büyük bölümünü temsil eden Harran ovasında pamuk üretimi yapan üreticilerin kriz etkisi altında üretim süreçlerinin nasıl etkilendiğini ortaya koymak amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmada 165 pamuk üreticisi ile yüz yüze anket çalışması gerçekleştirilmiştir. Üreticilerin kriz öncesi dönem ve kriz sürecinde girdi ve ürün piyasalarını takiplerinin ilişkiselliğini test etmek üzere ki kare bağımsızlık testleri ile girdi ve ürün piyasalarını takip sıklıkları arasında ilişki olup olmadığını analiz etmek üzere bağımlı örneklem t-testleri kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analizler sonucunda, kriz sürecinde çiftçilerin pamuk ve girdi fiyatlarını iç ve dış piyasalarda takip etme oranlarında ve piyasaları takip etme sıklıklarında, kriz öncesi döneme kıyasla istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir artış yaşandığı (p<0,05) tespit edilmiştir. Nitekim girdilerde dışa bağımlılığın yüksek olduğu bir üretimde, ekonomik krizlerin etkisiyle döviz kurlarında yaşanan yüksek artışlar, üreticilerin üretim ve satış kararlarını olumsuz yönde etkileyerek üretimi azaltmakta ve likidite varlıklarının oluşum sürecinde düzensizliğe yol açmaktadır. Ürün fiyatlarının artmasına ilişkin bir beklenti ile ertelenen satış kararı, girdi maliyetlerinde sürekli artışla mukayese edildiğinde üretici için daha kötü sonuçlar doğurabilmektedir. Nitekim girdi fiyatlarındaki yüksek artışların yanı sıra, uluslararası piyasaların baskısı altında iç piyasada pamuk fiyatlarının beklenen artışı gösterememesi, çiftçilerin üretim kararlarını büyük ölçüde etkilemiş ve maliyetleri düşürme yönünde harekete geçmelerine neden olmuştur. Bu durum üretimi olumsuz etkileyerek verim kayıplarına ve dolayısıyla üretimin azalmasına neden olmuştur. Bu çalışma sonucunda tarımsal ürünlere yönelik uygulanan politikaların sadece tarıma dayalı sanayiyi değil, aynı zamanda yurtiçi üretimin ana kaynağı olan çiftçileri de koruması gerektiği sonucunu bir kez daha vurgulamak doğru olacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Pamuk üretimi
• Ekonomik krizler
• Üretim kararları
• Karşılaştırmalı analizler
• Şanlıurfa

Examination of Changes in Production Decisions and Market Behavior of Cotton Farmers During the Economic Crisis; The Example of 2018 Türkiye Economic Crisis

Öz

Türkiye is among the leading countries in the world with its developed textile industry and cotton production. The economic crisis that started in the country in 2018 escalated further with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and the country's crisis report card grew even bigger with the February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. The agricultural sector, which has a high dependency on foreign inputs, was negatively affected by this process and caused changes in the production decisions of producers. This study aims to reveal how the production processes of cotton farmers in the Harran plain, which represents the majority of cotton production in the country, were affected by the crisis. In the study, a face-to-face survey was conducted with 165 cotton farmers. Chi-square independence tests were used to test the relationship between the farmers' monitoring of input and product markets in the pre-crisis period and during the crisis and paired sample t-tests were used to analyze whether there was a relationship between the frequencies of monitoring input and product markets. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was a statistically significant increase (p<0.05) in the rate of farmers following cotton and input prices in domestic and foreign markets and the frequency of following the markets during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Indeed, in a production where external dependency on inputs is high, high increases in exchange rates due to economic crises negatively affect the decisions of producers, reducing production and causing irregularities in the formation process of liquidity assets. A postponed sales decision due to an expectation of an increase in product prices may lead to worse outcomes for the farmers when compared to a continuous increase in input costs. In fact, in addition to the high increases in input prices, the fact that cotton prices in the domestic market failed to show the expected increase under the pressure of international markets greatly affected the production decisions of farmers and caused them to take action to reduce costs. This negatively affected production and caused losses in yield and therefore a decrease in production. As a result of this study, it would be correct to reiterate the conclusion that the policies implemented for agricultural products should protect not only the agriculture-based industry but also the farmers who are the main source of domestic production.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Cotton production
• Economic crises
• Production decisions
• Comparative analysis
• Şanlıurfa

Kaynakça

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