Tarım Sektörünün Çevre Kirliliği Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Bir Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik Analizi

Year 2020, , 329 - 345, 29.09.2020

Murat Çetin , Selin Saygın , Harun Demir

https://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.678764

Cited By: 30

Abstract

Son yıllarda çevre kirliliği ve onu etkileyen temel faktörlerin doğru tespit edilebilmesi, önemli bir inceleme konusudur. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de tarım sektörü ve çevre kirliliği arasındaki ilişkiyi 1968-2016 dönemi için araştırmaktır. Literatürde tarım sektörü ve çevre kirliliği arasındaki ampirik ilişki hakkında bir fikir birliği bulunmamaktadır. Bu nedenle çalışma hem literatüre katkı sağlamakta hem de gelecekteki çalışmalar için önemli bir kanıt sunmaktadır. Çalışmada tarımın belirleyicileri olarak tarımsal katma değer ve tarımsal arazi serileri tercih edilirken çevre kirliliğinin ölçütü olarak karbondioksit emisyonu kullanılmaktadır. Ayrıca, ekonomik büyüme ve yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi diğer bağımsız değişkenler olarak modellere dahil edilmektedir. Ampirik analizde tarım ve çevre kirliliği ilişkisi iki model kurularak tahmin edilmektedir. Yöntem, üç aşamadan oluşmaktadır. İlk olarak, serilerin durağanlık özellikleri DF-GLS ve Ng-Perron gibi geleneksel birim kök testleri ile test edilmektedir. Ek olarak, serilerin durağanlık seviyeleri Zivot-Andrews ve Lee-Strazicich yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri ile araştırılmaktadır. İkinci olarak, ARDL modeli ile seriler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ve uzun dönem katsayıları tahmin edilmektedir. Son olarak, seriler arasındaki nedenselliğin varlığı Toda-Yamamoto testi ile belirlenmektedir. Bulgular, çalışmada ele alınan seriler arasında bir eşbütünleşmeyi işaret etmektedir. Bulgular aynı zamanda uzun dönemde tarımsal katma değer ve tarımsal arazinin karbondioksit emisyonunu azalttığını ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışma, çevresel Kuznets eğrisi (ÇKE) hipotezinin Türkiye ekonomisi için geçerli olduğunu ispatlamaktadır. Tarımın karbondioksit emisyonuna neden olduğu tespit edilmektedir. Dahası tarımsal katma değer ve tarımsal arazinin yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminin nedeni olduğu saptanmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, politika yapıcıları Türkiye’de sürdürülebilir bir ekonomik gelişme için tarım sektörüne daha fazla önem vermelidir. Ayrıca tarım arazileri korunmalı ve katma değerli üretim için teşvik edilmelidir. Böylece çevre kirliliği azalış eğiliminde olacaktır.

Keywords

Tarım, Karbondioksit emisyonu, Yapısal kırılma, ARDL, Türkiye

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