Modeling of Natural Gas Consumption: An Analysis for Turkey with the MARS Method

Abstract

In this study, it is aimed to present a model for estimating the natural gas demand in Turkey. Natural gas consumption is considered as the dependent variable, and accordingly, macroeconomic data, climatic conditions, energy and price data, and social and cultural data are used as independent variables. In this study, in which monthly data were evaluated, 78 observations of the variables between January 2015 and June 2021 were included in the scope. MARS method was used in the Madelin analysis process. The model includes 3 basic functions and 2 variables as temperature rate and renewable energy rate. As long as temperature decreases are at reasonable levels, it is seen that the rate of increase in renewable energy has a very important effect on the decrease in natural gas consumption. In order to reduce the share of natural gas, which is 99% dependent on imports, in macroeconomic balances, it is revealed as a result of the analysis that renewable energy investments should be continued without slowing down, since we cannot control the temperature changes.

Keywords

• Natural Gas Consumption
• Energy Economics
• Energy Supply
• MARS

Doğal Gaz Tüketiminin Modellenmesi: Türkiye İçin MARS Yöntemiyle Bir Analiz

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’deki doğal gaz talebinin tahmin edilmesine yönelik model ortaya konması amaçlanmaktadır. Doğal gaz tüketimi bağımlı değişken olarak ele alınmış, buna bağlı olarak makroekonomik veriler, iklim koşulları, enerji ve fiyat verileri ile toplumsal ve kültürel veriler bağımsız değişken olarak kullanılmaktadır. Aylık verilerin değerlendirildiği bu çalışmada değişkenlere ait 2015 yılı ocak ayı ile 2021 yılı haziran ayı arasındaki 78 gözlem kapsama dâhil edilmiştir. Madelin analiz sürecinde MARS yönteminden faydalanılmıştır. Modelde 3 temel fonksiyon ile sıcaklık oranı ve yenilenebilir enerji oranı olarak 2 değişken yer almaktadır. Sıcaklık azalışları makul seviyelerde olduğu sürece yenilenebilir enerjideki artış oranının doğal gaz tüketiminin düşmesinde çok önemli etkiye sahip olduğu görülmektedir. %99 oranında ithalata bağımlı olan doğal gazın makroekonomik dengeler içerisindeki payını azaltmak için, sıcaklık değişikliklerimi kontrol edemediğimiz bir durum olduğundan, yenilenebilir enerji yatırımlarına hız kesmeden devam edilmesi gerektiği analiz sonucunda ortaya çıkmaktadır.

Keywords

• Doğalgaz Tüketimi
• Enerji Ekonomisi
• Enerji Tedariki
• MARS

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