The Relationship of the Between Food Insecurity, External Debt Stock and Import: Quantile Regression Analysis

Abstract

In the world increasing awareness of food insecurity has been of great importance for underceveloped and developing countries. In recent years these countries have made little progress in reducing food insecurity. External debt stocks and food imports of these countries have been an upward trend during the same period. In this study impact of long term external debt and food imports to merchandise imports on food security was tested with Quantile Regression Method for period 2000-2015 and 50 underdeveloped and developing countries which have undernourishment prevalence. Quantile Regression Method reveals the whole picture by taking the entire distribution of the dependend variable though the determined quantiles contrary to the mean estimation methods. As a result of the analysis, it has been revealed that the increase in the long term external debt stock and food imports to merchandise imports reduced food insecurity in food insecure countries especially. This result is thought to be consistent with expectations.

Keywords

• Food Insecurity,External Debt Stock,Food Import

Gıda Güvencesizliği, Dış Borç Stoku ve İthalat İlişkisi: Kantil Regresyon Analizi

Abstract

Dünyada farkındalığı artan gıda güvencesizliği az gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için büyük önem arz etmektedir. Son yıllarda bu ülkeler gıda güvencesizliğini azaltma yönünde az da olsa ilerleme kaydetmiştir. Bu ülkelerin gıda ithalatı ve dış borç stoku aynı dönem içerisinde artış trendi içerisine girmiştir. Bu çalışmada uzun dönem dış borç stoku ve gıda ithalatının mal ithalatına oranının gıda güvencesizliğine etkisi 2000-2015 dönemi ve 50 yetersiz beslenme yaygınlığına sahip az gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülke için Kantil Regresyon Yöntemi ile test edilmiştir. Kantil Regresyon Yöntemi ortalama tahmin yöntemlerinin aksine belirlenen kantiller yoluyla bağımlı değişkenin tüm dağılımını ele alarak tüm resmi ortaya çıkartmaktadır. Yapılan analiz sonucunda uzun dönem dış borç stoku ve gıda ithalatının mal ithalatına oranındaki artışın gıda güvencesizliğini genellikle daha gıda güvencesiz ülkelerde daha çok azalttığı ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu sonucun beklentilerle uyumlu olduğu düşünülmektedir.

Keywords

• Gıda Güvencesizliği,Dış Borç Stoku,Gıda İthalatı

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