Türkiye’de Banka Kredi Kanalı: 2001-2008 Dönemi

Year 2013, Volume: 12 Issue: 3, 567 - 587, 01.12.2013

Özer Arabacı Meryem Filiz Baştürk

Abstract

Toplulaştırılmış verilerle yapılan çalışmalar banka kredi kanalı ile ilgili bilgi sağlasa da, bu çalışmalardaki ampirik modeller tanımlama problemi içermektedir. Tanımlama problemi ile burada ifade edilen, sıkı para politikası sonucu kredilerde gözlemlenen azalmanın, bankaların kredi arzını kısmasından mı, yoksa kredi talep edenlerin azalmasından mı kaynaklandığının belirlenememesidir. Aslında ilk durum kredi kanalının çalışmasını, ikinci durum ise faiz oranı kanalının çalışmasını ifade eder. Bu çalışmanın amacı banka kredi kanalının işleyişini, IMF ile yapılan son iki stand by anlaşmasının geçerli olduğu 2001:052008:05 dönemi içerisinde incelemektedir. Çalışmada Yapısal VAR modelinden elde edilen bulgulara göre, incelenen dönem zarfında, banka kredi kanalının Türkiye ekonomisi için çalıştığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır

Keywords

Tanımlama Problemi, Yapısal VAR, Para Politikası, Kredi Talebi, Kredi Arzı,

Bank Lending Channel In Turkey: 2001-2008 Period

Abstract

Although yet the studies done with the aggregated data provides information related with
bank credit channel, the empirical models within this studies involve a definition problem.
The definition problem mentioned here refers to the nondisclosure whether these studies
arise from the decrease observed within the credits as a result of tight monetary policy is
thence the loan supplies retrench of the banks or the decrease in the loan demands.
Indeed, the first case indicates the credit channel operation, and the second case states the interest rate channel operation. The aim of this study is to analyze the operation of
the bank loan channel within the 2001:05-2008:05 term during when the last two stand
by agreements done with the IMF was valid. In accordance with the findings acquired
from the structural VAR model in the study, it is found that the bank loan channel worked
for the Turkish economy during the inspected term.

Keywords

Definition problem, Structural VAR, Monetary policy, Loan demand, Loan supply

References

• Amisano, G. & Giannini, C. (1997). Topics in structural VAR econometrics. Second edition, Berlin: Springer.
• Aysan, Ahmet F. (2009). Bankacılık Sektörü, Türkiye Ekonomisi: Yeni Yapı (2000-2008), (eds. N.Özkaramete Coşkun), Ankara: İmaj Kitabevi, 83- 113.
• Bacchetta, P. & Ballabriga F. (2000). The Impact of Monetary Policy and Banks Balance Sheets: Some International Evidence, Applied Financial Economics, 10, 15-26.
• BDDK (2009), Finansal Piyasalar Raporu, Sayı.13, Mart 2009. Bernanke, Ben S. & Blinder, A. (1988). Credit, Money and Aggregate Demand, The American Economic Review, 78(2), 435-439.
• Bernanke, Ben S. (1992-93). Credit in the Macroeconomy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Quarterly Review, Spring, 50- 70.
• Bernanke, Ben S. & Blinder, A. (1992). The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission, The American Economic Review, 82(4), 901-921.
• Bernanke, Ben S. & Blinder, A. (1988). Credit, Money and Aggregate Demand, The American Economic Review, 78(2), pp.435-439.
• Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the Black Box: the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission, Journal of Economic Perspective, 9(4), 27-48.
• Bilgin, Hüseyin M. & Kartal F. (2009). Türkiye’de Enflasyon ve Bankacılık Sektörü Kredileri: 2002-2008 Dönemi Üzerine Bir İnceleme, Maliye Finans Yazıları, Yıl.23, Sayı.85, 65-78.
• Boivin, J. vd. (2010). How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time, NBER Working Paper 15879, Cambridge, http://www.nber.org/papers/w15879, (12.10.2010).
• Cecchetti, Stephen G. (1995). Distinguishing Theories of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism, Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Economic Review, May/June, pp.83-97.
• Cengiz, V. & Duman, M. (2008). Türkiye’de Banka Kredi Kanalının Önemi Üzerine Etki Tepki Fonksiyonlarına Dayalı Bir Değerlendirme (1990-2006), H.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 26(2), 81-104.
• De Bondt, Gabe J. (1997). Monetary Transmission in six EU Countries: an Introduction and Overview, Research Memorandum WO&E, nr 527/9742, http://ideas.repec.org/p/dnb/wormem/527.html, (05.06.2010).
• Demiralp, S. (2007). Parasal Aktarım Mekanizmasında Para’nın Yeri: Türkiye İçin Bir Analiz, Çalışma Raporu 0712, Tusiad-Koç Üniversitesi Ekonomik Araştırma Forumu Çalışma Raporları Serisi, http://ideas.repec.org/p/koc/wpaper/0712.html, (05.07.2010).
• Erdoğan, S. & Beşballı G. (2009). Türkiye’de Banka Kredileri Kanalının İşleyişi Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 11(1), ss.28-41.
• Ford, Jim L. vd. (2003). Bank Behaviour and the Channel of Monetary Policy in Japan, 1965-1999, The Japanese Economic Review, 54(3), 275-299.
• Garretsen, H. & Swank J. (1998). The Transmission of Interest Rate Changes and the Role of Bank Balance Sheets: A VAR-Analysis for the Netherlands, Journal of Macroeconomics, 20(2), 325-339.
• Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S. (1993). The Role of Credit Market Imperfections in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Arguments and Evidence, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 95(1), 43-64.
• Gündüz, L. (2001). Türkiye’de Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması ve Banka Kredi Kanalı, İMKB Dergisi, 5(18), Nisan/Mayıs/Haziran, 13-30.
• Holtemöller, O. (2002). Further VAR Evidence for the Effectiveness of a Credit Channel in Germany, http://www.jpeco.rwth-aachen.de/CrCh-Final.pdf (1.03.2010).
• Hubbard, Glenn R. (1995). Is There a “Credit Channel” for Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, May/June, pp.63-77.
• İnan Alpan E. (2001). Parasal Aktarım Mekanizmasının Kredi Kanalı ve Türkiye, Bankacılar Dergisi, Yıl.12, Sayı.39, Türkiye Bankalar Birliği, 3-19.
• Juks, R. (2004). The Importance of the Bank-Lending Channel in Estonia: Evidence from Micro-Economic Data, Working Papers of Eesti Pank, No.6, pp.1-38.
• Kakes, J. (2000). Identifying the Mechanism: Is There a Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Transmission in the Netherlands?, Applied Economics Letters, 7(2), 63-67.
• Kashyap, Anil K. & Stein, J. (1995). The Impact of Monetary Policy on Bank Balance Sheets, Carnegie – Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 42, 151-195.
• Kashyap, Anil K. & Stein, J. (1994). Monetary Policy and Bank Lending, Monetary Policy, (eds.N.G.Mankiw), Chicago:The University of Chicago Pres.
• Kashyap, Anil K. vd. (1993). Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance, The American Economic Review, 83(1), 78-98.
• Kim, S. (1999). Do monetary policy shocks matter in the G-7 countries? Using common identifying assumptions about monetary policy across countries. Journal of International Economics, 48, 387-412.
• Meltzer, Allan H. (1995). Monetary, Credit and (Other) Transmission Processes: A Monetarist Perspective, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 49-72.
• Mishkin, Frederic S. (1996). The Channels of Monetary Transmission: Lessons for Monetary Policy, NBER Working Paper 5464, Cambridge, http://www.nber.org/papers/w5464, (16.10.2009).
• Pfaff, B. (2008). VAR, SVAR and SVEC Models: Implementation within R Package VARs, Journal of Statistical Software, 27(4), 1-32.
• Peker, O. & Canbazoğlu, B. (2011). Türkiye’de Banka Kredi Kanalının İşleyişi: Ampirik Bir Analiz, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 18(2), 127-143.
• Roosa, R. (1951). Interest Rates and the Central Bank in Money, Trade and Economic Growth: Essays in Honor of John H. Williams, New York: Macmillan.
• Smant, D. (2002). Bank Credit in the Transmission of Monetary Policy: A Critical Review of the Issues and Evidence, MPRA Paper No.19816, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19816/, (16.11.2010).
• Smets, F. (1997). Measuring monetary policy shocks in France, Germany and Italy: the role of the exchenge rate. Bank for International Settlements Working Papers, 42.
• Smets, F., & Wouters, R. (1999). The exchange rate and the monetary transmission mechanism in Germany. De Economist, 147(4), 489-521
• SPK (2008). Faaliyet Raporu, Ankara: Sermaye Piyasası Kurulu.
• Sun, L. vd. (2010). Bank Loans and the Effects of Monetary Policy in China: VAR/VECM Approach, China Economic Review, 21, 65-97.
• Suzuki, T. (2004a). Credit Channel of Monetary Policy in Japan: Resolving the Supply versus Demand Puzzle, Applied Economics, 36(21), 2385-96.
• Suzuki, T. (2004b). Is the Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Dominant in Australia?, The Economic Record, 80(249), 145-156.
• Suzuki, T. (2008). Credit Channel of Monetary Policy between Australia and New Zealand: an Empirical Note, pp.1-12, http://amw2008.econ.usyd.edu.au/pdfs/B-4_Tomoya%20Suzuki.pdf , (05.06.2010).
• Şengönül, A. (2005). Banking Risks and Effectiveness of Bank Lending Channel in Turkey, C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 6(1), 15-35.
• TBB (2008). 50.Yılında Türkiye Bankalar Birliği ve Türkiye’de Bankacılık Sistemi “1958-2007”, Yayın No.262.
• TCMB (2001), Para Politikası Raporu: 2001 Kasım. Thornton, Daniel L. (1994). Financial Innovation, Deregulation and the “Credit View” of Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Economic Review, 76(1), 31-49.