A geographical perspective on the geopolitical importance of water: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Year 2025, Volume: 13 Issue: 2, 191 - 222, 31.10.2025

Mustafa Murat Kale , Onur Han Çetmi

https://doi.org/10.57115/karefad.1725976

Abstract

This study examines the geopolitical and hydropolitical impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), one of the largest water infrastructure projects on the African continent, from a geographical perspective within the Nile River Basin. Considering that access to water has historically been a decisive factor in the development of civilizations, it is evident that the possession and management of water resources has equated to undeniable power in the struggle for survival among civilizations. In arid and semi-arid regions, in particular, the presence of transboundary water resources often creates significant areas of contention due to power asymmetries between riparian states. The GERD project, initiated by Ethiopia, is regarded as a manifestation of upstream countries’ efforts to achieve their own development goals, while downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, have taken a firm stance against the project due to their historical claims and dependency on the Nile waters. In this context, the study analyzes the struggle over water allocation in the Nile Basin from a multidimensional perspective, incorporating hydrological characteristics of the basin, historical processes, population dynamics, international law, and energy security. The geopolitical and hydropolitical significance of the GERD is addressed, and its impact on regional power balances is explored in depth.

Keywords

Transboundary water , Geopolitics , Hydropolitics , Nile River , Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

SUYUN JEOPOLİTİK ÖNEMİNE COĞRAFİ BAKIŞ: BÜYÜK ETİYOPYA RÖNESANS BARAJI

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Nil Nehri Havzası’nda yer alan ve kıtanın en büyük su projelerinden biri olan Büyük Etiyopya Rönesans Barajı’nın (BERB) jeopolitik ve hidropolitik etkilerini coğrafi bakış ile incelemektedir. Suya erişimin tarih boyunca medeniyetlerin gelişimindeki belirleyici faktörlerden biri olduğu dikkate alındığında, medeniyetlerin var olma mücadelelerinde su kaynaklarına sahip olma ve yönetme üstünlüğünün yadsınamaz bir güce sahip olma anlamı taşıdığı aşikardır. Özellikle kurak ve yarı kurak bölgelerde sınır aşan sulara sahip ülkeler arasında yaşanan güç asimetrileri, havza yönetiminde önemli bir çekişme alanı yaratmaktadır. Etiyopya’nın başlattığı BERB projesi, yukarı kıyıdaş ülkelerin kendi kalkınma hedeflerini gerçekleştirme çabasının bir ürünü olarak değerlendirilmekte, aşağı kıyıdaş Mısır ve Sudan’ın ise tarihsel hak iddiaları ve Nil Nehri’ne olan bağımlılıkları nedeniyle bu projeye karşı sert tavırlar sergilediği görülmektedir. Bu bağlamda çalışmada Nil Havzası’ndaki su paylaşım mücadelesi; havza hidrolojik özellikleri, tarihsel süreç, nüfus dinamikleri, uluslararası hukuk ve enerji güvenliği bağlamında çok boyutlu olarak incelenerek BERB’in jeopolitik ve hidropolitik önemi ele alınmış ve projenin bölgesel güç dengeleri üzerindeki etkisi çok yönlü olarak araştırılmıştır.

Keywords

Sınır aşan su , Jeopolitik , Hidropolitik , Nil Nehri , Büyük Etiyopya Rönesans Barajı

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