Şehirlerde Daralmanın Sonuçlarının ve Geleceğe İlişkin Öngörülerin Farklı Ülke Örnekleri Çerçevesinde Tartışılması

Abstract

Avrupa başta olmak üzere 1990’lı yıllardan başlayarak, doğum oranlarının düşmesi ve nüfusun yaşlanması ile demografik dönüşümün ortaya çıkması bazı şehirlerin nüfuslarını kaybetmesine neden olmuştur. Nüfusun öngörülenden fazla azalması vergi gelirlerinin düşmesine, teknik altyapı sistemlerinde kapasite fazlalarının oluşmasına, bakım ve işletim maliyetlerinin artmasına, sosyal donatı alanlarının terk edilmesine ve sonuç olarak da bu alanların çöküntü alanlarına dönüşmesine ve özellikle şehir merkezi dışında yeni yerleşim alanlarının oluşturulması ve şehir merkezinde yaşayan nüfusun bu bölgelere kaymasına neden olmuştur. Kamu politika ve stratejileri de şehirlerin daralması süreçlerinde etkili aktörler olmuşlardır. Literatürde daralma açısından özellikle incelenmiş olan ülkeler seçilerek farklı daralma nedenleri tespit edilmiştir. İstatistiksel veriler ışığında Türkiye’de daralmaya ilişkin veriler toplanarak hem geleceğe ilişkin öngörüler belirlenmiş hem de politikalar incelenmiştir. Bu çalışmada hem ekonomik hem de demografik değişimi kapsayan çok boyutlu bir bakış açısıyla daralan şehirleri tartışmak amacıyla temel bir yaklaşım geliştirilmeye ve çözüm önerileri sunulmaya çalışılmıştır. Kentsel daralmanın planlama aşamasından başlayarak öngörülmesi ve kentsel yayılmanın kontrollü bir şekilde gerçekleşmesi gerektiği varsayımı altında; daralmaya başlayan şehirlerde vergilerin düşürülmesi, yeni iş imkanlarının sunulması ve şehirlerin sosyal ve ekonomik açıdan daha cazip hale getirilmesi çözüm önerisi olarak tartışılmıştır.

Keywords

• Kentsel daralma
• nüfus kaybı
• daralan şehirler
• göç

Discussion of the Results and the Projections for the Future of the Shrinking Cities in the Framework of Different Country Cases

Abstract

Starting from the 1990s, especially in Europe, the drop in birth rates and the aging of the population and the emergence of demographic transformation caused some cities to lose their populations. The decrease in the population more than anticipated has led to a decrease in tax revenues, excess capacity in technical infrastructure systems, increase in maintenance and operating costs, abandonment of social facilities and turning these areas into collapse areas and especially caused the creation of new residential areas outside the city center and the population living in the city center shifting to these regions. Public policies and strategies have also been effective actors in the narrowing of cities. Different causes of shrinking have been identified by selecting the countries that have been particularly examined in terms of shrinking in the literature. In the light of statistical data, data on the contraction in Turkey were collected, both future projections were determined and policies were examined. In this study in order to discuss the shrinking cities with a multidimensional perspective covering both economic and demographic change, a basic approach was developed and solutions were proposed. Urban contraction has to be predicted starting from the planning phase and urban sprawl must take place in a controlled manner. It was discussed as a solution proposal to reduce taxes in cities that are beginning to contract, to offer new job opportunities and to make cities more attractive socially and economically.

Keywords

• Urban shrinkage
• population loss
• shrinking cities
• immigration

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