Development of Trend analysis-based Forecast Models for Türkiye’s Fossil Fuel Consumption

Nokta Nurani Bektaş; İzzet Karakurt; Gökhan Aydın

doi:10.31466/kfbd.1667202

TR EN

Türkiye'nin Fosil Yakıt Tüketimine Yönelik Trend Analizine Dayalı Tahmin Modellerinin Geliştirilmesi

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, 1965'ten 2023'e kadar Türkiye için toplam nüfus ve fosil yakıt tüketimini bağımsız ve bağımlı değişkenler olarak kullanan trend analizine dayalı tahmin modelleri geliştirilmiştir. Daha sonra, geliştirilen modellerin determinasyon katsayısı (R2), F ve t testleri ve tahmin edilen ile gerçek verilerin karşılaştırılması gibi çeşitli istatistiksel yaklaşımlarla doğrulaması yapılmıştır. Ayrıca, geliştirilen modellerin tahmin doğrulukları, ortalama mutlak sapma (MAD), ortalama karesel hata (MSE), ortalama karekök hata (RMSE), %95'te belirsizlik (U95), bağıl ortalama karekök hata (RRMSE), maksimum mutlak bağıl hata (erMAX) ve ortalama mutlak yüzdelik hata (MAPE) göstergeleri kullanılarak ölçülmüştür. Ek olarak, önerilen modeller ile Türkiye'nin fosil yakıt tüketimi 2025'ten 2035'e kadar tahmin edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, Türkiye'nin gelecekteki fosil yakıt tüketiminin önerilen modellerden biri ile başarılı bir şekilde tahmin edilebileceğini ortaya koymuştur. Dahası, tahmin sonuçları Türkiye'nin gelecekteki fosil yakıt tüketiminde önemli artışların beklendiğini açıkça göstermiştir.

Keywords

Fosil yakıt tüketimi, Trend analizi, Model, Tahmin, Türkiye

Development of Trend analysis-based Forecast Models for Türkiye’s Fossil Fuel Consumption

Abstract

In this study, trend analysis-based forecast models were developed for Türkiye using total population (TP) and fossil fuel consumption (FFC) as independent and dependent variables from 1965 to 2023. The developed models were then verified by various statistical approaches such as determination coefficient (R2), F – and t tests and predicted vs actual data. Additionally, forecasting accuracies of the developed models were measured using the indicators of mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), uncertainty at 95% (U95), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), maximum absolute relative error (erMAX) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Moreover, Türkiye’s FFC was projected from 2025 to 2035 using the proposed models. The results reveal that the future FFC of Türkiye can be successfully forecasted with one of the proposed models. Furthermore, the forecasting results evidently show that substantial increases are expected in Türkiye's future FFC.

Keywords

Fossil fuel consumption, Trend analysis, Model, Forecast, Türkiye

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Energy, Coal

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Nokta Nurani Bektaş
0009-0007-0016-4936
Türkiye

İzzet Karakurt ^*
0000-0002-3360-8712
Türkiye

Gökhan Aydın
0000-0002-6670-6458
Türkiye

Publication Date

September 15, 2025

Submission Date

March 28, 2025

Acceptance Date

August 31, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2025 Volume: 15 Number: 3

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1667202

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA29MN62KH

APA

Bektaş, N. N., Karakurt, İ., & Aydın, G. (2025). Development of Trend analysis-based Forecast Models for Türkiye’s Fossil Fuel Consumption. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 15(3), 1325-1340. https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1667202

AMA

1.Bektaş NN, Karakurt İ, Aydın G. Development of Trend analysis-based Forecast Models for Türkiye’s Fossil Fuel Consumption. KFBD. 2025;15(3):1325-1340. doi:10.31466/kfbd.1667202

Chicago

Bektaş, Nokta Nurani, İzzet Karakurt, and Gökhan Aydın. 2025. “Development of Trend Analysis-Based Forecast Models for Türkiye’s Fossil Fuel Consumption”. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 15 (3): 1325-40. https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1667202.

EndNote

Bektaş NN, Karakurt İ, Aydın G (September 1, 2025) Development of Trend analysis-based Forecast Models for Türkiye’s Fossil Fuel Consumption. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 15 3 1325–1340.

IEEE

[1]N. N. Bektaş, İ. Karakurt, and G. Aydın, “Development of Trend analysis-based Forecast Models for Türkiye’s Fossil Fuel Consumption”, KFBD, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 1325–1340, Sept. 2025, doi: 10.31466/kfbd.1667202.

ISNAD

Bektaş, Nokta Nurani - Karakurt, İzzet - Aydın, Gökhan. “Development of Trend Analysis-Based Forecast Models for Türkiye’s Fossil Fuel Consumption”. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 15/3 (September 1, 2025): 1325-1340. https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1667202.

JAMA

1.Bektaş NN, Karakurt İ, Aydın G. Development of Trend analysis-based Forecast Models for Türkiye’s Fossil Fuel Consumption. KFBD. 2025;15:1325–1340.

MLA

Bektaş, Nokta Nurani, et al. “Development of Trend Analysis-Based Forecast Models for Türkiye’s Fossil Fuel Consumption”. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 15, no. 3, Sept. 2025, pp. 1325-40, doi:10.31466/kfbd.1667202.

Vancouver

1.Nokta Nurani Bektaş, İzzet Karakurt, Gökhan Aydın. Development of Trend analysis-based Forecast Models for Türkiye’s Fossil Fuel Consumption. KFBD. 2025 Sep. 1;15(3):1325-40. doi:10.31466/kfbd.1667202

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