Türkiye'nin Fosil Yakıt Tüketimine Yönelik Trend Analizine Dayalı Tahmin Modellerinin Geliştirilmesi

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 3, 1325 - 1340, 15.09.2025

Nokta Nurani Bektaş , İzzet Karakurt , Gökhan Aydın

https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1667202

Öz

Bu çalışmada, 1965'ten 2023'e kadar Türkiye için toplam nüfus ve fosil yakıt tüketimini bağımsız ve bağımlı değişkenler olarak kullanan trend analizine dayalı tahmin modelleri geliştirilmiştir. Daha sonra, geliştirilen modellerin determinasyon katsayısı (R2), F ve t testleri ve tahmin edilen ile gerçek verilerin karşılaştırılması gibi çeşitli istatistiksel yaklaşımlarla doğrulaması yapılmıştır. Ayrıca, geliştirilen modellerin tahmin doğrulukları, ortalama mutlak sapma (MAD), ortalama karesel hata (MSE), ortalama karekök hata (RMSE), %95'te belirsizlik (U95), bağıl ortalama karekök hata (RRMSE), maksimum mutlak bağıl hata (erMAX) ve ortalama mutlak yüzdelik hata (MAPE) göstergeleri kullanılarak ölçülmüştür. Ek olarak, önerilen modeller ile Türkiye'nin fosil yakıt tüketimi 2025'ten 2035'e kadar tahmin edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, Türkiye'nin gelecekteki fosil yakıt tüketiminin önerilen modellerden biri ile başarılı bir şekilde tahmin edilebileceğini ortaya koymuştur. Dahası, tahmin sonuçları Türkiye'nin gelecekteki fosil yakıt tüketiminde önemli artışların beklendiğini açıkça göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fosil yakıt tüketimi , Trend analizi , Model , Tahmin , Türkiye

Development of Trend analysis-based Forecast Models for Türkiye’s Fossil Fuel Consumption

Öz

In this study, trend analysis-based forecast models were developed for Türkiye using total population (TP) and fossil fuel consumption (FFC) as independent and dependent variables from 1965 to 2023. The developed models were then verified by various statistical approaches such as determination coefficient (R2), F – and t tests and predicted vs actual data. Additionally, forecasting accuracies of the developed models were measured using the indicators of mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), uncertainty at 95% (U95), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), maximum absolute relative error (erMAX) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Moreover, Türkiye’s FFC was projected from 2025 to 2035 using the proposed models. The results reveal that the future FFC of Türkiye can be successfully forecasted with one of the proposed models. Furthermore, the forecasting results evidently show that substantial increases are expected in Türkiye's future FFC.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fossil fuel consumption , Trend analysis , Model , Forecast , Türkiye

Kaynakça

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