YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI YÖNTEMİ İLE PETROL FİYATLARI TAHMİNİ

Öz

Petrol fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmalar başta 1973 Petrol krizi olmak üzere birçok ekonomik krizin temel nedeni olarak görülmektedir. Ekonominin arz ve talep yanını aynı anda etkileyen bu faktörde meydana gelen fiyat hareketlerinin öngörülmesi ve tahmin edilmesi önem arz etmektedir. Literatürde petrol fiyatlarının yönünün kestirilmesinde farklı yöntemler kullanarak yapılmış birçok çalışma bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışma kapsamında ise yapay sinir ağları yönteminde farklı modeller kullanılarak petrol fiyatlarına ilişkin öngörü başarıları incelenerek karşılaştırma yapmak amaçlanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yapay Sinir Ağları
• Fiyat Tahmini
• Petrol Fiyatı
• Enerji Piyasası

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