TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND REVENUES: THE CASE OF TURKIYE AND EUROPEAN UNION (EU) COUNTRIES

Year 2025, Volume: 27 Issue: 49, 641 - 662, 29.08.2025

Mustafa Gökmenoğlu

https://doi.org/10.18493/kmusekad.1504069

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between public expenditures and revenues for the EU-27, EU-19, and EU-13 TR countries during the period 1995-2023. The research aims to test the validity of theoretically proposed hypotheses, including the tax-spend, spend-tax, fiscal synchronization, and institutional separation hypotheses, and to determine whether these hypotheses differ across country groups. Empirical tests conducted indicate the presence of cross-sectional dependence among the EU-13 and TR, EU-19 and TR, and EU-27 and TR groups throughout the examined period. In this context, CIPS tests, which are second-generation unit root tests, were applied, and it was found that the series are integrated of order one (I(1)). After applying differencing for stationarity, it was determined that the unit root was eliminated in the series. The results of the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test indicate a relationship from public revenues to expenditures in all country groups, but public expenditures do not cause public revenues. These results, which support Friedman's tax-spend hypothesis, were further analyzed using GMM estimators. The analysis for the EU-13 and TR reveals a positive and significant relationship between expenditures and revenues. In the tests conducted for the EU-19 and TR, it was determined that logexp led to a 0.203% increase in the current period, while logrev resulted in a 0.450% increase. Similarly, the analysis for the EU-27 and TR found a positive and significant relationship. In this context, a 1% increase in logexp led to a 0.644% increase in the current period, while a 1% increase in logrev led to a 0.512% increase in logexp. In conclusion, it was determined that public revenues cause expenditures, but there is no differentiation among country groups.

Keywords

Public Expenditure , Tax Revenue , Fiscal Synchronization , Tax-Expenditure , Institutional Separation Hypothesis

Project Number

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KAMU HARCAMALARI VE GELİRLERİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN SINANMASI: TÜRKİYE-AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ (AB) ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 1995-2023 döneminde AB-27, AB-19 ve AB-13 TR ülkeleri için kamu harcamaları ve gelirleri arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmektedir. Araştırma, teorik olarak öne sürülen vergi-harcama, harcama vergi, mali senkronizasyon ve kurumsal ayrılık hipotezlerinin geçerliliğini test etmeyi ve bu hipotezlerin ülke grupları arasında farklılık gösterip göstermediğini belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Yapılan ampirik testler, incelenen dönem boyunca AB-13 ve TR, AB-19 ve TR ile AB-27 ve TR grupları arasında yatay kesit bağımlılığı olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Bu bağlamda, II. nesil birim kök testlerinden olan CIPS testleri uygulanmış ve serilerin I(1) durumda olduğu saptanmıştır. Durağanlık için fark işlemi uygulamış, serilerdeki birim kökün ortadan kalktığı tespit edilmiştir. Dumitrescu-Hurlin nedensellik testi sonuçları, tüm ülke gruplarında kamu gelirlerinden harcamalara doğru bir ilişki olduğunu ancak kamu harcamalarının kamu gelirlerine neden olmadığını göstermiştir. Friedman'ın vergi-harcama hipotezinin desteklendiği bu sonuçlar GMM tahmincileri ile daha detaylı incelenmiştir. AB-13 ve TR için yapılan analizler, harcamalar ve gelirler arasında pozitif ve anlamlı bir ilişki olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. AB-19 ve TR için yapılan testlerde logexp'nin cari dönemde %0.203, logrev'in ise %0.450 artışa neden olduğu belirlenmiştir. AB-27 ve TR için yapılan analizlerde de pozitif ve anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Bu bağlamda, logexp'nin %1’lik artışının cari dönemde %0.644, logrev'in %1’lik artışının ise logexp'yi %0.512 artırdığı görülmüştür. Sonuç olarak kamu gelirlerinin harcamalara neden olduğu ancak ülke grupları arasında farklılaşma olmadığı belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

Kamu Harcamaları , Kamu Gelirleri , Mali Senkronizasyon , Vergi-Harcama , Kurumsal Ayrılık Hipotezi

Project Number

-

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