Mali Stresin Bir Göstergesi Olarak Bütçe Stresi: Türkiye’de Eğilimler ve Belirleyiciler

Öz

Mali stres, bir hükümetin bütçesel hedeflerine ulaşma kapasitesini ve kamu hizmetlerini sağlamak için gerekli kaynakları elde etme yeteneğini olumsuz etkileyen bir durumdur. Bütçe stresi ise, gelir ve harcamalar arasındaki dengesizlikten kaynaklanan bir baskıdır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de mali stresi Arnett (2011) ile Boukari ve Veiga (2018) tarafından geliştirilen bütçe stresi göstergesi kullanarak incelemektedir. 1984-2023 dönemi için yıllık bütçe stresi hesaplanmış ve koalisyon hükümetleri, seçim dönemleri, ekonomik krizler ve ek bütçe uygulamaları gibi özel dönemlerdeki değişimi analiz edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, bütçe stresinin özellikle koalisyon hükümetleri ve ek bütçe çıkarılan yıllarda yüksek olduğunu, ancak kriz ve seçim dönemlerinin sınırlı bir etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışmanın ikinci aşamasında, 2005-2024 dönemi aylık verileri kullanılarak, mali stresi etkileyen makroekonomik faktörler Prais-Winsten regresyon analiziyle incelenmiştir. Bulgular, işsizlik oranı ve döviz kurunun mali stresi artırdığını; cari açık ve ithalatın ise azalttığını ortaya koymuştur. Enflasyon, faiz harcamaları ve ihracat anlamlı bir etki göstermemiştir. Sonuç olarak, Türkiye’de bütçe stresi ekonomik ve politik dinamiklerin etkileşimiyle şekillenmekte olup, bu durum mali politika oluşturma sürecinde dikkate alınması gereken önemli bir unsurdur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Bütçe Stresi
• Mali Stres
• Bütçe Yönetimi
• Bütçenin Sürdürülebilirliği
• Prais-Winsten Regresyonu

Budget Stress as an Indicator of Fiscal Stress: Trends and Determinants in Türkiye

Öz

Fiscal stress disrupts a government's ability to meet budgetary objectives and secure resources for public services. Budget stress, a related concept, arises from an imbalance between revenues and expenditures. This study examines fiscal stress in Turkey using the budget stress indicator developed by Arnett (2011) and Boukari and Veiga (2018). Fiscal stress was calculated annually for 1984-2023, focusing on its variation during coalition governments, election years, economic crises, and supplementary budget periods. Results indicate that fiscal stress was notably high during coalition governments and years with supplementary budget allocations, while crises and elections had limited effects. The second phase of the study investigates macroeconomic factors influencing fiscal stress using Prais-Winsten regression analysis on monthly data from 2005 to 2024. Findings reveal that unemployment and exchange rates increase fiscal stress, whereas the current account deficit and imports reduce it. Inflation, interest expenses, and exports showed no significant impact. In conclusion, Turkey’s budget stress is shaped by economic and political dynamics, emphasizing the importance of these factors in fiscal policy. This study provides insights into understanding and managing fiscal challenges in developing effective budget strategies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Budget Stress
• Fiscal Stress
• Budget Management
• Budget Sustainability
• Prais-Winsten Regression

Kaynakça

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