PARA POLİTİKASI TASARIMLARINDA FİYAT VE FİNANSAL İSTİKRAR İLİŞKİSİ: EURO ALANINDAN KANITLAR (1999:01-2020:12)

Year 2022, , 262 - 293, 23.03.2022

Ömer Yalçınkaya , Halil İbrahim Aydın

https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.862481

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, para politikası tasarımlarının fiyat istikrarı ile finansal istikrar arasındaki ilişkileri açıklamakta 1990’lardan buyana Geleneksel Bilgelik ve Yeni Ortam Hipotezleriyle gösterdiği gelişim gözetilerek Euro alanındaki ülkelerin para politikası tasarımlarında fiyat istikrarı ile finansal istikrar arasındaki ilişkilerin ampirik olarak incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu amaçla çalışmada, para politikalarının fiyat istikrarı temel amacı doğrultusunda tasarlandığı Euro alanındaki ülkelerde, fiyat istikrarı ile finansal istikrar arasındaki zamanla değişen ilişkiler 1999:01-2020:12 dönemi için TVP-VAR modeliyle ekonometrik olarak incelenmektedir. Çalışmanın sonucunda, Euro alanındaki ülkelerde inceleme döneminde fiyat istikrarı ile finansal istikrar arasındaki ilişkilerin zamanla değiştiği ve Yeni Ortam Hipotezi kapsamında karşılıklı olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, Euro alanındaki ülkelerde para politikalarının Yeni Ortam Hipotezinin ve parasal ile finansal değişkenler arasındaki ilişkilerin zamanla değişen yapısının gözetilerek yeniden tasarlanmasının gerekliliğine işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

Para Politikası Tasarımları, Yeni Ortam Hipotezi, Euro Alanı, TVP-VAR

THE RELATION OF PRICE AND FINANCIAL STABILITY IN MONETARY POLICY DESIGN: EVIDENCE FROM EURO AREA (1999:01-2020:12)

Abstract

In this study, it is aimed to examine the relations between price stability and financial stability in the monetary policy designs of the euro area countries empirically, taking into account the development of monetary policy designs since the 1990s with Conventional Wisdom and New Environment Hypotheses. For this purpose, in the study are examined the time-changing relations between price stability and financial stability in euro area countries where monetary policies are designed for the main purpose of price stability econometrically using the TVP-VAR model for the period 1999:01-2020:12. As a result of the study, it was found that the relations between price stability and financial stability during the review period in euro area countries changed over time and were mutual within the scope of the New Environment Hypothesis. These results point to the necessity of redesigning monetary policies in the euro area countries, taking into account the New Environment Hypothesis and the changing structure of the relations between monetary and financial variables over time.

Keywords

Monetary Policy Designs, New Environment Hypothesis, The Euro Area, TVP-VAR

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