FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS: ASYMMETRIC PANEL CAUSALITY ANALYSIS FOR THE FRAGILE FIVE COUNTRIES

Year 2022, , 542 - 560, 23.03.2022

Hamza Çeştepe , Havanur Ergün Tatar

https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.913434

Cited By: 5

Abstract

Economic growth is one of the main macroeconomic variables with which financial development interacts. The main aim of developing countries is to become a developed country with stable and sustainable growth. In this study, the causality relationship between financial development and economic growth is investigated in five developing countries, called the fragile five countries. In the study in which the 1980-2019 period data of the mentioned countries are used, asymmetric panel causality analysis is performed after the traditional and new unit root tests. According to the results of the causality analysis, it is revealed that “supply-leading hypothesis” and “demand-following hypothesis” are valid for Indonesia whereas “ feedback hypothesis” is valid for Turkey. This situation can be interpreted as the variables used in the causality relationship and the sample group are effective, and these factors should be taken into consideration for new studies to be conducted on the subject.

Keywords

Financial Development, Economic Growth, Fragile Five Countries, Asymmetric Panel Causality Analysis

FİNANSAL GELİŞME VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: KIRILGAN BEŞLİ ÜLKELERİ İÇİN PANEL ASİMETRİK NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Abstract

Finansal gelişmenin etkileşim içerisinde olduğu temel makroekonomik değişkenlerin başında ekonomik büyüme gelmektedir. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerin başlıca amacı da, istikrarlı ve sürdürülebilir büyümeyle gelişmiş bir ülke haline gelebilmektir. Bu çalışmada, kırılgan beşli ülkeleri olarak adlandırılan beş gelişmekte olan ülke örneğinde, finansal gelişme ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi araştırılmıştır. Adı geçen ülkelerin 1980-2019 dönemi verilerinin kullanıldığı çalışmada, geleneksel ve yeni birim kök testlerinden sonra asimetrik panel nedensellik analizi yapılmıştır. Nedensellik analizi sonuçlarına göre, Endonezya için “arz öncüllü hipotez” ve “talep takipli hipotez”in, Türkiye için ise “geri bildirim hipotezi”nin geçerli olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu durum, nedensellik ilişkisinde kullanılan değişkenler ve örneklem grubunun etkili olduğu, konuyla ilgili yapılacak yeni çalışmalarda bu unsurların dikkate alınması gerektiği şeklinde yorumlanabilir.

Keywords

Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme, Kırılgan Beşli Ülkeleri, Asimetrik Panel Nedensellik Analizi

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