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THE IMPACT OF TRADE OPENNESS ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION UNDER STRUCTURAL BREAKS: THE EXAMPLE OF TURKEY

Year 2019, Volume: 6 Issue: 2, 316 - 332, 29.08.2019
https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.534538

Abstract

In this study, the effect of trade openness on
energy consumption was investigated over the period of 1970-2015 in the example
of Turkish economy. The DF-GLS, KPSS and Ng-Perron conventional unit root tests
and Vogelsang-Perron unit root test with structural break were used to
determine the stationary degrees of the variables. The results obtained from
the unit root tests allowed the use of the ARDL bounds test to determine the
long-term relationship between the series. Bounds test results supported the
existence of a long-term relationship between the variables. According to the
long run results, it was detected that trade opennes positively affected energy
consumption. The causality relations between the variables were investigated by
using Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis. The causality results found the
existence of a bidirectional causality relationship between trade openness and
energy consumption. The results can provide important policy recommendations
for Turkish economy.

References

  • AHMED, K. (2017), Revisiting the role of financial development for energy-growth-trade nexus in BRICS economies, Emergy, 128, 487-495.
  • AL-MULALİ, U., ÖZTÜRK, I. (2015), The effect of energy consumption, urbanization, trade openness, industrial output, and the political stability on the environmental degradation in the MENA (the Middle East and North African) region. Energy, 84, 382-389.
  • AZAM, M., KHAN, A. O., ZAFEİRİOU, E., ARABATZİS, G. (2016), Socio-economic determinants of energy consumption: An empirical survey for Greece, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 57, 1556-1567.
  • AZAM, M., KHAN, A. O., ZAMAN, K., AHMAD, M. (2015), Factors determining energy consumption: Evidence from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 47, 1123-1131.
  • BROWN, R.L., DURBİN, J., EVANS, J.M. (1975). Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relations over Time, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(2), 149-163.
  • COLE, M.A. (2006), Does trade liberalization increase national energy use?, Economic Letters, 92, 108-112.
  • ELLİOT, G., ROTHENBERG, T. J., STOCK, J. H. (1996), Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root, Econometrica, 64, 813-836.
  • FARHANİ, S., SHAHBAZ, M., AROURİ, M., TEULON, F. (2014), The role of natural gas consumption and trade in Tunisia's output, Energy Policy, 66, 677-684.
  • FURUOKA, F. (2015), Financial development and energy consumption: Evidence from a heterogeneous panel of Asian countries, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 52, 430-444.
  • HALICIOĞLU, F. (2011), A dynamic econometric study of income, energy and exports in Turkey, Energy, 36, 3348-3354.
  • JEBLİ, M.B., YOUSSEF, S.B. (2015), The environmental Kuznets curve, economic growth, renewable and non-renewable energy, and trade in Tunisia, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 47, 173-185.
  • KEHO, Y. (2016), What drives energy consumption in developing countries? The experience of selected African countries, Energy Policy, 91, 233-246.
  • KOENKAN, M. (2018), The positive impact of trade openness on consumption of energy: Fresh evidence from Andean community countries, Energy, 158, 936-943.
  • KUMAR, R. R., STAUVERMANN, P. J., LOGANATHAN, N., KUMAR, R. D. (2015), Exploring the role of energy, trade and financial development in explaining economic growth in South Africa: A revisit, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 52, 1300-1311.
  • KURNİAWAN, R., MANAGİ, S. (2018), Coal consumption, urbanization, and trade openness linkage in Indonesia, Energy Policy, 121, 576-583.
  • KWİATKOWSKİ, D., PHİLLİPS, P. C. B., SCHMİDT, P., SHİN, Y. (1992), Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?, Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.
  • KYOPHİLAVONG, P., SHAHBAZ, M., ANWAR, S., MASOOD, S. (2015), The energy-growth nexus in Thailand: Does trade openness boost up energy consumption?, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 46, 265-274.
  • NASREEN, S., ANWAR, S. (2014), Causal relationship between trade openness, economic growth and energy consumption: A panel data analysis of Asian countries, Energy Policy, 69, 82-91.
  • NG, S., PERRON, P. (2001), Lag Lenght Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power, Econometrica, 69, 1519-1554.
  • ÖZBUĞDAY, F.C., ERBAS, B.C. (2015), How effective are energy efficiency and renewable energy in curbing CO2 emissions in the long run? A heterogeneous panel data analysis, Energy, 82, 734-745.
  • PAO, H.T., FU, H.C. (2013), Renewable energy, non-renewable energy and economic growth in Brazil, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25, 381-392.
  • PERRON, P. (1994), Unit root and structural change in macroeconomic time series, In Rao. B. (ed.) Cointegration for the Applied Economist, Macmillan, London.
  • PERRON, P., NG, S. (1996), Useful Modifications to Some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and Their Local Asymptotic Properties, The Review of Economic Studies, 63, 435-463.
  • PERRON, P., VOGELSANG, T. (1992), Nonstationarity and level shifts with a application to purchasing power parity, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, 301-320.
  • PESARAN, M. H., SHİN, Y., SMİTH, R. (2001), Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 389-326.
  • RAFİNDADİ, A. A., ÖZTÜRK, İLHAN (2016). Effects of financial development, economic growth and trade on electricity consumption: Evidence from post-Fukushima Japan, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 54, 1073-1084.
  • RAZZAQUE, B. H., KHONDKER, N. A., MUJERİ, M. K. (2003), Trade liberalization and economic growth: Empirical evidence on Bangladesh, MAP technical paper, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies.
  • SADORSKY, P. (2012), Energy consumption, output and trade in South America, Energy Economics, 34, 476-488.
  • SBİA R, SHAHBAZ M, HAMDİ H. (2014), A contribution of foreign direct investmentclean energy, trade openness, carbon emissions and economic growth to energy demand in UAE, Economic Modelling, 36, 191-197.
  • SHAHBAZ, M., HYE, Q.M.A., TİWARİ, A. K., LEİTAO, N. C. (2013b), Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO2 emissions in Indonesia, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25, 109-121.
  • SHAHBAZ, M., KHAN, S., TAHİR, M. I. (2013a), The dynamic links between energy consumption, economic growth, financial development and trade in China: Fresh evidence from multivariate framework analysis, Energy Economics, 40, 8-21.
  • SHAHBAZ, M., LEAN, H.H. (2012), Does financial development increase energy consumption? The role of industrialization and urbanization in Tunisia, Energy Policy, 40, 473-479.
  • SHAHBAZ, M., LOGANATHAN, N., SBİA, R., AFZA, T. (2015), The effect of urbanization, affluence and trade openness on energy consumption: A time series analysis in Malaysia, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 47, 683-693.
  • SHAHBAZ, M., NASREEN, S., LİNG, C.H., SBİA, R. (2014), Causality between trade openness and energy consumption: What causes what in high, middle and low income countries, Energy Policy, 70, 126-143.
  • SİNHA, A., SHAHBAZ, M. (2018), Estimation of Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 Emission: Role of Renewable Energy Generation in India, Renewable Energy, 119, 703-711.
  • SU, J., AMSLER, C., SCHMİDT, P. (2012), A Note on the Size of the KPSS Unit Root Test, Economics Letters, 117(3), 697-699.
  • TİBA, S., FRİKHA, M. (2018), Income, trade openness and energy interactions: Evidence from simultaneous equation modeling, Energy, 147, 799-811.
  • TODA, H.Y., YAMAMOTO, T. (1995), Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes, Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
  • VOGELSANG, T. J., PERRON, P. (1998), Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend at an Unknown Time, International Economic Review, 39, 1073-1100.

YAPISAL KIRILMA ALTINDA TİCARİ DIŞA AÇIKLIĞIN ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2019, Volume: 6 Issue: 2, 316 - 332, 29.08.2019
https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.534538

Abstract

Bu çalışmada ticari dışa açıklığın enerji
tüketimi üzerindeki etkisi, Türkiye ekonomisi bağlamında 1970-2015 döneminde
araştırılmıştır. Serilerin durağanlık derecelerinin tespiti için DF-GLS, KPSS
ve Ng-Perron geleneksel birim kök testleri ile Vogelsang-Perron yapısal
kırılmalı birim kök testi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen birim kök test sonuçları,
seriler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin tespiti için ARDL sınır testinin
kullanımına imkân sunmuştur. Sınır testi sonuçları, değişkenler arasında uzun
dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığını desteklemiştir. Uzun dönem sonuçlarına göre,
ticari dışa açıklığın enerji tüketimini pozitif etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Toda-Yamamoto
nedensellik analizi kullanılarak değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri
araştırılmıştır. Nedensellik sonuçları, ticari dışa açıklık ile enerji tüketimi
arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını belirlemiştir.
Sonuçlar, Türkiye ekonomisi için önemli politika önerileri sunabilmektedir.

References

  • AHMED, K. (2017), Revisiting the role of financial development for energy-growth-trade nexus in BRICS economies, Emergy, 128, 487-495.
  • AL-MULALİ, U., ÖZTÜRK, I. (2015), The effect of energy consumption, urbanization, trade openness, industrial output, and the political stability on the environmental degradation in the MENA (the Middle East and North African) region. Energy, 84, 382-389.
  • AZAM, M., KHAN, A. O., ZAFEİRİOU, E., ARABATZİS, G. (2016), Socio-economic determinants of energy consumption: An empirical survey for Greece, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 57, 1556-1567.
  • AZAM, M., KHAN, A. O., ZAMAN, K., AHMAD, M. (2015), Factors determining energy consumption: Evidence from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 47, 1123-1131.
  • BROWN, R.L., DURBİN, J., EVANS, J.M. (1975). Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relations over Time, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(2), 149-163.
  • COLE, M.A. (2006), Does trade liberalization increase national energy use?, Economic Letters, 92, 108-112.
  • ELLİOT, G., ROTHENBERG, T. J., STOCK, J. H. (1996), Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root, Econometrica, 64, 813-836.
  • FARHANİ, S., SHAHBAZ, M., AROURİ, M., TEULON, F. (2014), The role of natural gas consumption and trade in Tunisia's output, Energy Policy, 66, 677-684.
  • FURUOKA, F. (2015), Financial development and energy consumption: Evidence from a heterogeneous panel of Asian countries, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 52, 430-444.
  • HALICIOĞLU, F. (2011), A dynamic econometric study of income, energy and exports in Turkey, Energy, 36, 3348-3354.
  • JEBLİ, M.B., YOUSSEF, S.B. (2015), The environmental Kuznets curve, economic growth, renewable and non-renewable energy, and trade in Tunisia, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 47, 173-185.
  • KEHO, Y. (2016), What drives energy consumption in developing countries? The experience of selected African countries, Energy Policy, 91, 233-246.
  • KOENKAN, M. (2018), The positive impact of trade openness on consumption of energy: Fresh evidence from Andean community countries, Energy, 158, 936-943.
  • KUMAR, R. R., STAUVERMANN, P. J., LOGANATHAN, N., KUMAR, R. D. (2015), Exploring the role of energy, trade and financial development in explaining economic growth in South Africa: A revisit, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 52, 1300-1311.
  • KURNİAWAN, R., MANAGİ, S. (2018), Coal consumption, urbanization, and trade openness linkage in Indonesia, Energy Policy, 121, 576-583.
  • KWİATKOWSKİ, D., PHİLLİPS, P. C. B., SCHMİDT, P., SHİN, Y. (1992), Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?, Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.
  • KYOPHİLAVONG, P., SHAHBAZ, M., ANWAR, S., MASOOD, S. (2015), The energy-growth nexus in Thailand: Does trade openness boost up energy consumption?, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 46, 265-274.
  • NASREEN, S., ANWAR, S. (2014), Causal relationship between trade openness, economic growth and energy consumption: A panel data analysis of Asian countries, Energy Policy, 69, 82-91.
  • NG, S., PERRON, P. (2001), Lag Lenght Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power, Econometrica, 69, 1519-1554.
  • ÖZBUĞDAY, F.C., ERBAS, B.C. (2015), How effective are energy efficiency and renewable energy in curbing CO2 emissions in the long run? A heterogeneous panel data analysis, Energy, 82, 734-745.
  • PAO, H.T., FU, H.C. (2013), Renewable energy, non-renewable energy and economic growth in Brazil, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25, 381-392.
  • PERRON, P. (1994), Unit root and structural change in macroeconomic time series, In Rao. B. (ed.) Cointegration for the Applied Economist, Macmillan, London.
  • PERRON, P., NG, S. (1996), Useful Modifications to Some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and Their Local Asymptotic Properties, The Review of Economic Studies, 63, 435-463.
  • PERRON, P., VOGELSANG, T. (1992), Nonstationarity and level shifts with a application to purchasing power parity, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, 301-320.
  • PESARAN, M. H., SHİN, Y., SMİTH, R. (2001), Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 389-326.
  • RAFİNDADİ, A. A., ÖZTÜRK, İLHAN (2016). Effects of financial development, economic growth and trade on electricity consumption: Evidence from post-Fukushima Japan, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 54, 1073-1084.
  • RAZZAQUE, B. H., KHONDKER, N. A., MUJERİ, M. K. (2003), Trade liberalization and economic growth: Empirical evidence on Bangladesh, MAP technical paper, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies.
  • SADORSKY, P. (2012), Energy consumption, output and trade in South America, Energy Economics, 34, 476-488.
  • SBİA R, SHAHBAZ M, HAMDİ H. (2014), A contribution of foreign direct investmentclean energy, trade openness, carbon emissions and economic growth to energy demand in UAE, Economic Modelling, 36, 191-197.
  • SHAHBAZ, M., HYE, Q.M.A., TİWARİ, A. K., LEİTAO, N. C. (2013b), Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO2 emissions in Indonesia, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25, 109-121.
  • SHAHBAZ, M., KHAN, S., TAHİR, M. I. (2013a), The dynamic links between energy consumption, economic growth, financial development and trade in China: Fresh evidence from multivariate framework analysis, Energy Economics, 40, 8-21.
  • SHAHBAZ, M., LEAN, H.H. (2012), Does financial development increase energy consumption? The role of industrialization and urbanization in Tunisia, Energy Policy, 40, 473-479.
  • SHAHBAZ, M., LOGANATHAN, N., SBİA, R., AFZA, T. (2015), The effect of urbanization, affluence and trade openness on energy consumption: A time series analysis in Malaysia, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 47, 683-693.
  • SHAHBAZ, M., NASREEN, S., LİNG, C.H., SBİA, R. (2014), Causality between trade openness and energy consumption: What causes what in high, middle and low income countries, Energy Policy, 70, 126-143.
  • SİNHA, A., SHAHBAZ, M. (2018), Estimation of Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 Emission: Role of Renewable Energy Generation in India, Renewable Energy, 119, 703-711.
  • SU, J., AMSLER, C., SCHMİDT, P. (2012), A Note on the Size of the KPSS Unit Root Test, Economics Letters, 117(3), 697-699.
  • TİBA, S., FRİKHA, M. (2018), Income, trade openness and energy interactions: Evidence from simultaneous equation modeling, Energy, 147, 799-811.
  • TODA, H.Y., YAMAMOTO, T. (1995), Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes, Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
  • VOGELSANG, T. J., PERRON, P. (1998), Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend at an Unknown Time, International Economic Review, 39, 1073-1100.
There are 39 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Murat Çetin 0000-0002-7886-4162

Selin Saygın 0000-0003-4617-3882

Publication Date August 29, 2019
Submission Date March 1, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019 Volume: 6 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Çetin, M., & Saygın, S. (2019). YAPISAL KIRILMA ALTINDA TİCARİ DIŞA AÇIKLIĞIN ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÖRNEĞİ. Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty, 6(2), 316-332. https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.534538