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TÜRKİYE İLE OECD ÜLKELERİ ARASINDAKİ DIŞ TİCARET İLİŞKİSİNİN ANALİZİ: MEKANSAL PANEL YER ÇEKİMİ MODELLERİ YAKLAŞIMI

Year 2022, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 1 - 30, 23.03.2022

Sinem Güler Kangallı Uyar , Emre Kılıç

https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.791332
Cited By: 1

Abstract

Yer çekimi modeli ülkeler arasındaki ticaretin açıklanmasında yaygın olarak kullanılan bir yöntemdir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ile OECD ülkeleri arasındaki ticaret ilişkisi mekânsal yer çekimi modeli kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Analiz, 1993-2017 dönemi için gerçekleştirilmiştir. Mekânsal çekim modeli, dış ticaretin her yönünün incelenebilmesi için Türkiye’nin OECD ülkeleri ile yaptığı ithalat, ihracat ve toplam ticareti (İthalat + İhracat) üzerine ayrı ayrı uygulanmıştır. Bağımsız değişken olarak; gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla (GDP), nüfus (POP), döviz kuru (EXCH), mesafe (DIST) ve ülkelerin aynı denize kıyılarının olma durumu (SEA) değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada, uluslararası ticaretteki mekân etkisi panel veri kapsamında mekânsal ekonometrik yöntemler kullanılarak dikkate alınmıştır. Panel veri için uygulanan mekânsal bağımlılık test sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye’nin OECD ülkeleri ile olan ithalat ve toplam ticaretinde mekânsal bağımlılığın olduğu görülmüştür. Yerçekimi modelinde mekânsal bağımlılığın dikkate alınmasının sonuçlar üzerinde önemli etkisinin olduğu görülmüştür. Yöntemsel farklılıktan kaynaklanan bu durum, ticaret ilişkilerinin daha sağlıklı açıklanması noktasında önem arz etmektedir.

Keywords

Dış Ticaret OECD Yer Çekimi Modeli Mekansal Panel Veri Ekonometrisi

References

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  • Anselin, L. (2001). A Companion to Theoretical Econometrics içinde Spatial Econometrics (ss. 310–330). Blackwell Oxford. DOI:10.1002/9780470996249
  • Anselin, L., Bera, A.K., Florax, R. ve Yoon, M.J. (1996). Simple Diagnostic Tests For Spatial Dependence, Reg Sci Urban Econ, 26(1), 77–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-0462(95)02111-6
  • Anselin, L., Le Gallo, J. ve Jayet, H. (2008). The Econometrics of Panel Data içinde Spatial Panel Econometrics (3. Baskı ss, 624–660). Berlin, Heidelberg, Germany: Springer-Verlag. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-75892-1_19
  • Antonucci, D. ve Manzocchi, S. (2006). Does Turkey Have A Special Trade Relation With The EU? A Gravity Model Approach. Economic Systems, 30, 157-169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2005.10.003
  • Atabay Baytar, R. (2012). Türkiye ve BRIC Ülkeleri Arasındaki Ticaret Hacminin Belirleyicileri: Panel Çekim Modeli Analizi. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 21(1), 403-424.
  • Avis, D. ve Horton, J. (1985). Remarks On The Sphere of Influence Graph. Annals of The New York Academy of Sciences, 440(1), 323-327. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-6632.1985.tb14563.x
  • Azam, S. (2016). Trade and Environment: Do Spatial Effects Matter? Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research, 6(2), 161-174. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/73113
  • Baltagi, B. H., Song, S. H. ve Koh, W. (2003). Testing panel data regression models with spatial error correlation. Journal of Econometrics, 117(1), 123-150. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00120-9
  • Baltagi, B. H., Song, S. H., Jung, B. C. ve Koh, W. (2007). Testing for serial correlation, spatial autocorrelation and random effects using panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 140(1), 5-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2006.09.001
  • Baltagi, B.H. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. 3rd edn. Wiley, Chichester.
  • Bebek, U. G. (2006). An Assessment Of The Impact Of Customs Union On Turkish Bilateral Trade Flows With The EU: A Gravity Model Approach. Marmara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü (Basılmamış Doktora Tezi), İstanbul.
  • Bergstrand, J. H., (1985). The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 3(67), 474-481. https://doi.org/10.2307/1925976
  • Bo, P. (2013). Bilateral Trade of China and The Linder Hypothesis: A Gravity Model Approach. Jonkoping International Business School (Basılmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi), Sweden.
  • Burridge, P. (1980). On The Cliff-Ord Test For Spatial Autocorrelation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series:B, 42(1), 107–108. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1980.tb01108.x
  • Burtan Doğan, B. ve Özörnek Tunç, Ş. (2015). Türkiye’nin Afrika Ülkeleri ile Olan Dış Ticaretinin Belirleyicileri: Panel Çekim Modeli Yaklaşımı. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), 12(7), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.20990/aacd.47582
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  • Do, T.T. (2006). A Gravity Model for Trade Between Vietnam and Twenty Three European Countries. (Basılmamış Doktora Tezi). Department of Economics and Society, Dalarna University, Sweden.
  • Eaton, J. ve Korton, S. (1997). Technology and Bilateral Trade. NBER Working Paper, No. 6253, Cambridge MA, 1-53.
  • Elhorst, J.P. (2010). Spatial Panel Data Models. In: Fischer M.M., Getis A. (eds),. Springer, Berlin.
  • Elhorst, J.P. (2014). Spatial Econometrics From Cross-Sectional Data to Spatial Panels. SpringerBriefs in Regional Science. Springer Heidelberg, New York.
  • Genç, M.C., Artan, S. ve Berber, M. (2011). Karadeniz Ekonomik İş Birliği Bölgesinde Ticaret Akımlarının Belirleyicileri: Çekim Modeli Yaklaşımı. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 2(25), 207-224.
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  • IMF Data. (15 Kasım 2018). http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=61726510
  • IMF Data. (5 Mart 2020). https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/weoselgr.aspx
  • Işık, N. (2016). Türkiye ile Şanghay İş Birliği Örgütü Arasındaki Ticaret Akımlarının Panel Çekim Modeli ile Analizi. UİİİD-İJEAS, 17, 151-174. https://doi.org/10.18092/ijeas.04182
  • Kangallı Uyar, S.G. ve Kılıç, E. (2017). Yabancıların Konut Talebinin Türkiye’deki Bölgesel Konut Talebi Üzerine Etkisi: Mekânsal Ekonometrik Analiz. Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 4(4), 292-306. https://doi.org/10.30803/adusobed.355485
  • Kapoor, M., Kelejian, H. H. ve Prucha, I. R. (2007). Panel data models with spatially correlated error components. Journal of Econometrics, 140(1), 97-130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2006.09.004
  • Karagöz, K. ve Karagöz, M. (2009). Türkiye’nin Küresel Ticaret Potansiyeli: Çekim Modeli Yaklaşımı. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisati ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 2(10), 127-144.
  • Karagöz, K. ve Saray M. O. (2010). Trade Potential of Turkey with Asia-Pacific Countries: Evidence from Panel Gravity Model. International Economic Studies, 36(1), 19-26. DOI: 10.22108/IES.2022.15523
  • Lesage, J. ve Fischer, M.M. (2010). Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis içinde, Spatial Econometric Methods for Modeling Origin-Destination Flows (M.M. Fischer ve A. Getis (eds.), ss. 409-432) Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-03647-7_20
  • Lesage, J. ve Pace, K. R. (2008). Spatial Econometric Modeling of Origin-Destination Flows. Journal of Regional Science, 48(5), 941–967. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9787.2008.00573.x
  • Linnemann, H. (1966). An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows. North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam.
  • Metulini, R. (2013). Spatial Gravity Models for International Trade: A Panel Analysis Among OECD Countries. (Conference Paper, 1-17), Econstor.
  • OECD Data. (10 Ocak 2018). http://www.oecd.org/about/membersandpartners/
  • OECD Data. (28 Ocak 2018). https://data.oecd.org/conversion/exchange-rates.htm
  • Porojan, A. (2001). Trade Flows and Spatial Effects: The Gravity Model Revisited. Open Economies Review, 12, 265–280. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011129422190
  • Pöyhönen, P. (1963). A Tentative Model For The Volume of Trade Between Countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90(1), 93–100.
  • Roemer, J.E. (1977). The Effects of Sphere of Influence and Economic Distance on the Commodity Composition of Trade in Manufactures. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 59(3), 318-27. https://doi.org/10.2307/1925050
  • Stewart, B. M. ve Zhukov, Y. (2010). Choosing Your Neighbors: The Sensitivity of Geographical Diffusion in International Relations. Annual Meeting Paper.
  • Strateji Bütçe Başkanlığı (SBB). (19 Aralık 2020). https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/08_TurkiyeninDisEkonomikiliskileri.pdf
  • Tatlıcı, Ö. ve Kızıltan, A. (2011). Çekim Modeli: Türkiye’nin İhracatı Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Atatürk Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 10. Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu Özel Sayısı, 287-299.
  • Tiefelsdorf, M. (2003). Misspecifications in Interaction Model Distance Decay Relations: A Spatial Structure Effect. Journal of Geographical Systems, 5, 25–50. DOI: 10.1007/s101090300102
  • Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the World Economy:Suggestions for an International Economic Policy. New York: Twentieth Century Fund.
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ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TURKEY AND OECD COUNTRIES: THE SPATIAL PANEL GRAVITY MODELS APPROACH

Year 2022, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 1 - 30, 23.03.2022

Sinem Güler Kangallı Uyar , Emre Kılıç

https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.791332
Cited By: 1

Abstract

The gravity model is a widely used method to explain the trade between countries. In this study, trade relationships between OECD countries and Turkey were examined by using the spatial gravity model. The analysis was carried out for the period 1993-2017. Spatial gravity model was examined separately on Turkey’s import, export and trade volume (imports + exports) with OECD countries for international trade to be considered in all aspects. As the independent variables; gross domestic product (GPD), population (POP), the exchange rate (EXCH), distance (DIST) and the situation of countries being in the same coastal seas (SEA) variables are used. In this study, the spatial effect in international trade has been taken into consideration by using spatial econometrics methods in the context of panel data. According to the spatial dependence test results applied for panel data, it was decided that there is a spatial effect on Turkey’s imports and trade volumes with OECD countries. It has been observed that considering spatial dependency in the gravity model has a significant effect on the results. This situation arising from the methodological difference is important in terms of explaining trade relations more properly.

Keywords

International Trade OECD Gravity Model Spatial Panel Data Econometrics

References

  • Anselin, L. (1988). Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models, Kluwer Academic Publishers. Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
  • Anselin, L. (2001). A Companion to Theoretical Econometrics içinde Spatial Econometrics (ss. 310–330). Blackwell Oxford. DOI:10.1002/9780470996249
  • Anselin, L., Bera, A.K., Florax, R. ve Yoon, M.J. (1996). Simple Diagnostic Tests For Spatial Dependence, Reg Sci Urban Econ, 26(1), 77–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-0462(95)02111-6
  • Anselin, L., Le Gallo, J. ve Jayet, H. (2008). The Econometrics of Panel Data içinde Spatial Panel Econometrics (3. Baskı ss, 624–660). Berlin, Heidelberg, Germany: Springer-Verlag. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-75892-1_19
  • Antonucci, D. ve Manzocchi, S. (2006). Does Turkey Have A Special Trade Relation With The EU? A Gravity Model Approach. Economic Systems, 30, 157-169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2005.10.003
  • Atabay Baytar, R. (2012). Türkiye ve BRIC Ülkeleri Arasındaki Ticaret Hacminin Belirleyicileri: Panel Çekim Modeli Analizi. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 21(1), 403-424.
  • Avis, D. ve Horton, J. (1985). Remarks On The Sphere of Influence Graph. Annals of The New York Academy of Sciences, 440(1), 323-327. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-6632.1985.tb14563.x
  • Azam, S. (2016). Trade and Environment: Do Spatial Effects Matter? Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research, 6(2), 161-174. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/73113
  • Baltagi, B. H., Song, S. H. ve Koh, W. (2003). Testing panel data regression models with spatial error correlation. Journal of Econometrics, 117(1), 123-150. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00120-9
  • Baltagi, B. H., Song, S. H., Jung, B. C. ve Koh, W. (2007). Testing for serial correlation, spatial autocorrelation and random effects using panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 140(1), 5-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2006.09.001
  • Baltagi, B.H. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. 3rd edn. Wiley, Chichester.
  • Bebek, U. G. (2006). An Assessment Of The Impact Of Customs Union On Turkish Bilateral Trade Flows With The EU: A Gravity Model Approach. Marmara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü (Basılmamış Doktora Tezi), İstanbul.
  • Bergstrand, J. H., (1985). The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 3(67), 474-481. https://doi.org/10.2307/1925976
  • Bo, P. (2013). Bilateral Trade of China and The Linder Hypothesis: A Gravity Model Approach. Jonkoping International Business School (Basılmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi), Sweden.
  • Burridge, P. (1980). On The Cliff-Ord Test For Spatial Autocorrelation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series:B, 42(1), 107–108. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1980.tb01108.x
  • Burtan Doğan, B. ve Özörnek Tunç, Ş. (2015). Türkiye’nin Afrika Ülkeleri ile Olan Dış Ticaretinin Belirleyicileri: Panel Çekim Modeli Yaklaşımı. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), 12(7), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.20990/aacd.47582
  • CEPII Database. (27 Ekim 2018). http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/download.asp?
  • Cografyaharita Web Site (11 Kasım 2018). http://cografyaharita.com/haritalarim/3g_dunya_siyasi_haritasi.png
  • Comtrade Data. (11 Kasım 2018). https://comtrade.un.org/data/
  • Deardorff, A.V. (1998). Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World. The National Bureau of Economic Research, University of Chicago Press, 7-32. https://doi.org/10.7208/9780226260228-005
  • Do, T.T. (2006). A Gravity Model for Trade Between Vietnam and Twenty Three European Countries. (Basılmamış Doktora Tezi). Department of Economics and Society, Dalarna University, Sweden.
  • Eaton, J. ve Korton, S. (1997). Technology and Bilateral Trade. NBER Working Paper, No. 6253, Cambridge MA, 1-53.
  • Elhorst, J.P. (2010). Spatial Panel Data Models. In: Fischer M.M., Getis A. (eds),. Springer, Berlin.
  • Elhorst, J.P. (2014). Spatial Econometrics From Cross-Sectional Data to Spatial Panels. SpringerBriefs in Regional Science. Springer Heidelberg, New York.
  • Genç, M.C., Artan, S. ve Berber, M. (2011). Karadeniz Ekonomik İş Birliği Bölgesinde Ticaret Akımlarının Belirleyicileri: Çekim Modeli Yaklaşımı. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 2(25), 207-224.
  • IMF Data. (11 Kasım 2018). http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=61726508
  • IMF Data. (15 Kasım 2018). http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=61726510
  • IMF Data. (5 Mart 2020). https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/weoselgr.aspx
  • Işık, N. (2016). Türkiye ile Şanghay İş Birliği Örgütü Arasındaki Ticaret Akımlarının Panel Çekim Modeli ile Analizi. UİİİD-İJEAS, 17, 151-174. https://doi.org/10.18092/ijeas.04182
  • Kangallı Uyar, S.G. ve Kılıç, E. (2017). Yabancıların Konut Talebinin Türkiye’deki Bölgesel Konut Talebi Üzerine Etkisi: Mekânsal Ekonometrik Analiz. Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 4(4), 292-306. https://doi.org/10.30803/adusobed.355485
  • Kapoor, M., Kelejian, H. H. ve Prucha, I. R. (2007). Panel data models with spatially correlated error components. Journal of Econometrics, 140(1), 97-130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2006.09.004
  • Karagöz, K. ve Karagöz, M. (2009). Türkiye’nin Küresel Ticaret Potansiyeli: Çekim Modeli Yaklaşımı. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisati ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 2(10), 127-144.
  • Karagöz, K. ve Saray M. O. (2010). Trade Potential of Turkey with Asia-Pacific Countries: Evidence from Panel Gravity Model. International Economic Studies, 36(1), 19-26. DOI: 10.22108/IES.2022.15523
  • Lesage, J. ve Fischer, M.M. (2010). Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis içinde, Spatial Econometric Methods for Modeling Origin-Destination Flows (M.M. Fischer ve A. Getis (eds.), ss. 409-432) Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-03647-7_20
  • Lesage, J. ve Pace, K. R. (2008). Spatial Econometric Modeling of Origin-Destination Flows. Journal of Regional Science, 48(5), 941–967. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9787.2008.00573.x
  • Linnemann, H. (1966). An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows. North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam.
  • Metulini, R. (2013). Spatial Gravity Models for International Trade: A Panel Analysis Among OECD Countries. (Conference Paper, 1-17), Econstor.
  • OECD Data. (10 Ocak 2018). http://www.oecd.org/about/membersandpartners/
  • OECD Data. (28 Ocak 2018). https://data.oecd.org/conversion/exchange-rates.htm
  • Porojan, A. (2001). Trade Flows and Spatial Effects: The Gravity Model Revisited. Open Economies Review, 12, 265–280. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011129422190
  • Pöyhönen, P. (1963). A Tentative Model For The Volume of Trade Between Countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90(1), 93–100.
  • Roemer, J.E. (1977). The Effects of Sphere of Influence and Economic Distance on the Commodity Composition of Trade in Manufactures. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 59(3), 318-27. https://doi.org/10.2307/1925050
  • Stewart, B. M. ve Zhukov, Y. (2010). Choosing Your Neighbors: The Sensitivity of Geographical Diffusion in International Relations. Annual Meeting Paper.
  • Strateji Bütçe Başkanlığı (SBB). (19 Aralık 2020). https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/08_TurkiyeninDisEkonomikiliskileri.pdf
  • Tatlıcı, Ö. ve Kızıltan, A. (2011). Çekim Modeli: Türkiye’nin İhracatı Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Atatürk Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 10. Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu Özel Sayısı, 287-299.
  • Tiefelsdorf, M. (2003). Misspecifications in Interaction Model Distance Decay Relations: A Spatial Structure Effect. Journal of Geographical Systems, 5, 25–50. DOI: 10.1007/s101090300102
  • Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the World Economy:Suggestions for an International Economic Policy. New York: Twentieth Century Fund.
  • TUIK Data. (19 Aralık 2020). http://tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1046
  • Worldbank Data. (27 Ocak 2018). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=AU
There are 49 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Sinem Güler Kangallı Uyar 0000-0003-3694-150X

Emre Kılıç 0000-0003-2900-5123

Publication Date March 23, 2022
Submission Date September 7, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 9 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Kangallı Uyar, S. G., & Kılıç, E. (2022). TÜRKİYE İLE OECD ÜLKELERİ ARASINDAKİ DIŞ TİCARET İLİŞKİSİNİN ANALİZİ: MEKANSAL PANEL YER ÇEKİMİ MODELLERİ YAKLAŞIMI. Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty, 9(1), 1-30. https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.791332

Cited By

TÜRKİYE AÇISINDAN ŞANGHAY İŞBİRLİĞİ ÖRGÜTÜ AVRUPA BİRLİĞİNİN ALTERNATİFİ OLABİLİR Mİ? PANEL ÇEKİM MODELİ YAKLAŞIMI İLE ANALİZİ
Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi
https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.1107096
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