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PARA POLİTİKASI TASARIMLARINDA FİYAT VE FİNANSAL İSTİKRAR İLİŞKİSİ: EURO ALANINDAN KANITLAR (1999:01-2020:12)

Year 2022, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 262 - 293, 23.03.2022
https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.862481

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, para politikası tasarımlarının fiyat istikrarı ile finansal istikrar arasındaki ilişkileri açıklamakta 1990’lardan buyana Geleneksel Bilgelik ve Yeni Ortam Hipotezleriyle gösterdiği gelişim gözetilerek Euro alanındaki ülkelerin para politikası tasarımlarında fiyat istikrarı ile finansal istikrar arasındaki ilişkilerin ampirik olarak incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu amaçla çalışmada, para politikalarının fiyat istikrarı temel amacı doğrultusunda tasarlandığı Euro alanındaki ülkelerde, fiyat istikrarı ile finansal istikrar arasındaki zamanla değişen ilişkiler 1999:01-2020:12 dönemi için TVP-VAR modeliyle ekonometrik olarak incelenmektedir. Çalışmanın sonucunda, Euro alanındaki ülkelerde inceleme döneminde fiyat istikrarı ile finansal istikrar arasındaki ilişkilerin zamanla değiştiği ve Yeni Ortam Hipotezi kapsamında karşılıklı olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, Euro alanındaki ülkelerde para politikalarının Yeni Ortam Hipotezinin ve parasal ile finansal değişkenler arasındaki ilişkilerin zamanla değişen yapısının gözetilerek yeniden tasarlanmasının gerekliliğine işaret etmektedir.

References

  • Babu, T. Ramesh and Venkateswarlu, M. (2017). Dynamics of Financial Stress and Economic Performance of India, International Journal of Applied Business and Economic Research, 15, 5: 1-17.
  • Başçı, E., & Kara, H. (2011). Finansal istikrar ve para politikası. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 26(302), 9-25.
  • Billi, R.M., Verdin, A., 2014. Monetary policy and financial stability-A simple story. Sveriges Bank Economic Review 7e22.
  • Blot, C., Creel, J., Hubert, P., Labondance, F., & Saraceno, F. (2015). Assessing the link between price and financial stability. Journal of financial Stability, 16, 71-88.
  • Bordo, M.D., & Wheelock, D.C. (1998). Price Stability and Financial Stability: The Historical Record. Review, 80, 41–60. doi:10. 20955/r.80.41-62.
  • Bordo, M.D., Dueker, M.J., & Wheelock, D.C. (2002). Aggregate price shocks and financial instability: A historical analysis. Economic Inquiry, 40, 521–538. doi:10.1093/ei/40.4.521.
  • Borio, C. (2014a). The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?. Journal of Banking & Finance, 45, 182-198.
  • Borio, C., (2014b). Monetary policy and financial stability: what role in prevention and recovery? BIS Working Paper, 440. 1-23.
  • Borio, C., English, B., Filardo, A., 2003. A Tale of Two Perspectives: Old or New Challenges for Monetary Policy. Bank of International Settlements (BIS) BIS Working Papers No 127, 1-66.
  • Borio, C., Lowe, P., 2002. Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring thenexus. BIS Working Paper, 114. 1-47.
  • Crockett, A. (1997). Why is financial stability a goal of public policy? Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 82, 5–22.
  • Cuestas J. C. and Garrant, D. (2011), “Is Real GDP Per Capita a Stationary Process? Smooth Transitions, Nonlinear Trends and Unit Root Testing”, Empirical Economics, 41, 555-563.
  • Dahem, A., Skander, S., & Fatma, S. G. (2017). Time Varying VAR Analysis for Disaggregated Exchange Rate Pass-through in Tunisia. Munich Personal RePEc Archivei MPRA Paper No. 79759.
  • Demirguc-Kunt, A., & Detragiache, E. (1998). The determinants of banking crises in developing and developed countries. IMF Staff Papers, 45, 81–109. doi:10.2307/3867330
  • Dhal, S., Kumar, P., & Ansari, J. (2011). Financial stability, economic growth, inflation and monetary policy linkages in India: An empirical reflection. Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, 32(3), 1-35.
  • ECB, The European Central Bank, www.ecb.europa.eu 2020
  • Fouejieu, A. (2017). Inflation targeting and financial stability in emerging markets. Economic Modelling, 60, 51-70.
  • Fouejieu, A., Popescu, A., & Villieu, P. (2019). Trade-offs between macroeconomic and financial stability objectives. Economic Modelling, 81, 621-639.
  • Frappa, S., & Mésonnier, J. S. (2010). The housing price boom of the late 1990s: Did inflation targeting matter?. Journal of Financial Stability, 6(4), 243-254.
  • Gadanecz, B., & Jayaram, K. (2008). Measures of financial stability-a review. Irving Fisher Committee Bulletin, 31, 365–383.
  • Granville, B., & Mallick, S. (2009). Monetary and financial stability in the euro area: Pro-cyclicality versus trade-off. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 19(4), 662-674.
  • Hamilton, J. (2017). Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter. NBER Working Paper, No: 23429.
  • Hardy, D., Pazarbasioglu, C., 1999. Determinants and leading indicators of bankingcrises: further evidence. IMF Staff Papers, 463. pp. 247-258.
  • Harvey, D. I., and Leybourne, S. J. (2007), Testing for Time Series Linearity. Econometrics Journal, 10, 149-165.
  • Harvey, D. I., Leybourne, S. J. and Xiao, B. (2008), A Powerful Test for Linearity When the Order of Integration is Unknown. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 12(3), 1-22.
  • Hollo, D., Kremer, M., Lo Duca, M., 2012. “CISS – a composite indicator of systemicstress in the financial system”, ECB Working Paper Series, No.1426. 1-49.
  • Hoque, M. E., & Zaidi, M. A. S. (2019). The impacts of global economic policy uncertainty on stock market returns in regime switching environment: Evidence from sectoral perspectives. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 24(2), 991-1016.
  • Issing, O. (2003). Monetary and financial stability: is there a trade-off? BIS Papers, 18, 16–23.
  • Kapetanios G., Shin Y. and Snell A. (2003), “Testing for a Unit Root in the Nonlinear STAR Framework”, Journal of Econometrics, 112, 359-379.
  • Karanovic, G., & Karanovic, B. (2015). Developing an aggregate index for measuring financial stability in the Balkans. Procedia Economics and Finance, 33, 3-17.
  • Kim, S., & Mehrotra, A. (2017). Managing price and financial stability objectives in inflation targeting economies in Asia and the Pacific. Journal of Financial Stability, 29, 106-116.
  • Leijonhufvud, A. (2007). Monetary and financial stability. CEPR Policy Insight, 14.1–25.
  • Mishkin, F. S. (2011). Monetary policy strategy: lessons from the crisis (No. w16755). National Bureau of Economic Research. 1-62.
  • Nair, A. R., & Anand, B. (2020). Monetary policy and financial stability: Should central bank lean against the wind?. Central Bank Review. 20, 133-142.
  • Nakajima, J. (2011). Time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility: An overview of methodology and empirical applications, Monetary and Economic Studies, 29: 107-142.
  • Orphanides, A., van Norden, S. (2002). The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real-Time. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84, 569–583.
  • Özatay, F. (2012). Para politikasında yeni arayışlar. Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 27(315), 51-75.
  • Primiceri, Giorgio E. (2005). The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 72, Issue 3, July 2005, Pages 821–852.
  • Rajan, R.G. (2005). Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier? NBER working paper n.11728. 1-45.
  • Roldán-Peña, J., Torres-Ferro, M., & Torres García, A. (2017). Trade-offs between inflation targeting and financial stability objectives: Drivers of gains from coordinating monetary and macroprudential policies (No. 2017-22). Working Papers.1-35.
  • Sahoo, J. (2020). Financial stress index, growth and price stability in India: Some recent evidence. Transnational Corporations Review, 1-15.
  • Schwartz, A.J. (1995). Why financial stability despends on price stability. Economic Affairs, 15, 21–25.
  • Sethi, D., & Acharya, D. (2020). Monetary policy and financial stability: the role of inflation targeting. Australian Economic Review, 53(1), 50-75.
  • Smets, F. (2014). Financial stability and monetary policy: How closely interlinked?. the International Journal of Central Banking, 35th issue (June 2014), 263-300.
  • Sollis, R. (2009), “A simple unit root test against asymmetric STAR nonlinearity with an application to real exchange rates in Nordic countries”, Economic Modelling, 26: 118-125.
  • TCMB, (2015). Finansal İstikrar: Türkiye’de Finansal İstikrar Gelişmeleri, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr
  • Van Roye, B. (2011). Financial stress and economic activity in Germany and the Euro Area (No. 1743). Kiel Working Paper.
  • White, W.R., 2006. Is price stability enough?, BIS Working Paper, 205.
  • Woodford, M., 2012. Inflation targeting and financial stability, NBER Working Paper,17967.
  • Yılancı, V. ve Tıraşoğlu, M. (2016), Türkiye’nin Makroekonomik Zaman Serilerinin Doğrusallığının Testi. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(2), 1-16.

THE RELATION OF PRICE AND FINANCIAL STABILITY IN MONETARY POLICY DESIGN: EVIDENCE FROM EURO AREA (1999:01-2020:12)

Year 2022, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 262 - 293, 23.03.2022
https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.862481

Abstract

In this study, it is aimed to examine the relations between price stability and financial stability in the monetary policy designs of the euro area countries empirically, taking into account the development of monetary policy designs since the 1990s with Conventional Wisdom and New Environment Hypotheses. For this purpose, in the study are examined the time-changing relations between price stability and financial stability in euro area countries where monetary policies are designed for the main purpose of price stability econometrically using the TVP-VAR model for the period 1999:01-2020:12. As a result of the study, it was found that the relations between price stability and financial stability during the review period in euro area countries changed over time and were mutual within the scope of the New Environment Hypothesis. These results point to the necessity of redesigning monetary policies in the euro area countries, taking into account the New Environment Hypothesis and the changing structure of the relations between monetary and financial variables over time.

References

  • Babu, T. Ramesh and Venkateswarlu, M. (2017). Dynamics of Financial Stress and Economic Performance of India, International Journal of Applied Business and Economic Research, 15, 5: 1-17.
  • Başçı, E., & Kara, H. (2011). Finansal istikrar ve para politikası. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 26(302), 9-25.
  • Billi, R.M., Verdin, A., 2014. Monetary policy and financial stability-A simple story. Sveriges Bank Economic Review 7e22.
  • Blot, C., Creel, J., Hubert, P., Labondance, F., & Saraceno, F. (2015). Assessing the link between price and financial stability. Journal of financial Stability, 16, 71-88.
  • Bordo, M.D., & Wheelock, D.C. (1998). Price Stability and Financial Stability: The Historical Record. Review, 80, 41–60. doi:10. 20955/r.80.41-62.
  • Bordo, M.D., Dueker, M.J., & Wheelock, D.C. (2002). Aggregate price shocks and financial instability: A historical analysis. Economic Inquiry, 40, 521–538. doi:10.1093/ei/40.4.521.
  • Borio, C. (2014a). The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?. Journal of Banking & Finance, 45, 182-198.
  • Borio, C., (2014b). Monetary policy and financial stability: what role in prevention and recovery? BIS Working Paper, 440. 1-23.
  • Borio, C., English, B., Filardo, A., 2003. A Tale of Two Perspectives: Old or New Challenges for Monetary Policy. Bank of International Settlements (BIS) BIS Working Papers No 127, 1-66.
  • Borio, C., Lowe, P., 2002. Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring thenexus. BIS Working Paper, 114. 1-47.
  • Crockett, A. (1997). Why is financial stability a goal of public policy? Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 82, 5–22.
  • Cuestas J. C. and Garrant, D. (2011), “Is Real GDP Per Capita a Stationary Process? Smooth Transitions, Nonlinear Trends and Unit Root Testing”, Empirical Economics, 41, 555-563.
  • Dahem, A., Skander, S., & Fatma, S. G. (2017). Time Varying VAR Analysis for Disaggregated Exchange Rate Pass-through in Tunisia. Munich Personal RePEc Archivei MPRA Paper No. 79759.
  • Demirguc-Kunt, A., & Detragiache, E. (1998). The determinants of banking crises in developing and developed countries. IMF Staff Papers, 45, 81–109. doi:10.2307/3867330
  • Dhal, S., Kumar, P., & Ansari, J. (2011). Financial stability, economic growth, inflation and monetary policy linkages in India: An empirical reflection. Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, 32(3), 1-35.
  • ECB, The European Central Bank, www.ecb.europa.eu 2020
  • Fouejieu, A. (2017). Inflation targeting and financial stability in emerging markets. Economic Modelling, 60, 51-70.
  • Fouejieu, A., Popescu, A., & Villieu, P. (2019). Trade-offs between macroeconomic and financial stability objectives. Economic Modelling, 81, 621-639.
  • Frappa, S., & Mésonnier, J. S. (2010). The housing price boom of the late 1990s: Did inflation targeting matter?. Journal of Financial Stability, 6(4), 243-254.
  • Gadanecz, B., & Jayaram, K. (2008). Measures of financial stability-a review. Irving Fisher Committee Bulletin, 31, 365–383.
  • Granville, B., & Mallick, S. (2009). Monetary and financial stability in the euro area: Pro-cyclicality versus trade-off. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 19(4), 662-674.
  • Hamilton, J. (2017). Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter. NBER Working Paper, No: 23429.
  • Hardy, D., Pazarbasioglu, C., 1999. Determinants and leading indicators of bankingcrises: further evidence. IMF Staff Papers, 463. pp. 247-258.
  • Harvey, D. I., and Leybourne, S. J. (2007), Testing for Time Series Linearity. Econometrics Journal, 10, 149-165.
  • Harvey, D. I., Leybourne, S. J. and Xiao, B. (2008), A Powerful Test for Linearity When the Order of Integration is Unknown. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 12(3), 1-22.
  • Hollo, D., Kremer, M., Lo Duca, M., 2012. “CISS – a composite indicator of systemicstress in the financial system”, ECB Working Paper Series, No.1426. 1-49.
  • Hoque, M. E., & Zaidi, M. A. S. (2019). The impacts of global economic policy uncertainty on stock market returns in regime switching environment: Evidence from sectoral perspectives. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 24(2), 991-1016.
  • Issing, O. (2003). Monetary and financial stability: is there a trade-off? BIS Papers, 18, 16–23.
  • Kapetanios G., Shin Y. and Snell A. (2003), “Testing for a Unit Root in the Nonlinear STAR Framework”, Journal of Econometrics, 112, 359-379.
  • Karanovic, G., & Karanovic, B. (2015). Developing an aggregate index for measuring financial stability in the Balkans. Procedia Economics and Finance, 33, 3-17.
  • Kim, S., & Mehrotra, A. (2017). Managing price and financial stability objectives in inflation targeting economies in Asia and the Pacific. Journal of Financial Stability, 29, 106-116.
  • Leijonhufvud, A. (2007). Monetary and financial stability. CEPR Policy Insight, 14.1–25.
  • Mishkin, F. S. (2011). Monetary policy strategy: lessons from the crisis (No. w16755). National Bureau of Economic Research. 1-62.
  • Nair, A. R., & Anand, B. (2020). Monetary policy and financial stability: Should central bank lean against the wind?. Central Bank Review. 20, 133-142.
  • Nakajima, J. (2011). Time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility: An overview of methodology and empirical applications, Monetary and Economic Studies, 29: 107-142.
  • Orphanides, A., van Norden, S. (2002). The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real-Time. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84, 569–583.
  • Özatay, F. (2012). Para politikasında yeni arayışlar. Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 27(315), 51-75.
  • Primiceri, Giorgio E. (2005). The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 72, Issue 3, July 2005, Pages 821–852.
  • Rajan, R.G. (2005). Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier? NBER working paper n.11728. 1-45.
  • Roldán-Peña, J., Torres-Ferro, M., & Torres García, A. (2017). Trade-offs between inflation targeting and financial stability objectives: Drivers of gains from coordinating monetary and macroprudential policies (No. 2017-22). Working Papers.1-35.
  • Sahoo, J. (2020). Financial stress index, growth and price stability in India: Some recent evidence. Transnational Corporations Review, 1-15.
  • Schwartz, A.J. (1995). Why financial stability despends on price stability. Economic Affairs, 15, 21–25.
  • Sethi, D., & Acharya, D. (2020). Monetary policy and financial stability: the role of inflation targeting. Australian Economic Review, 53(1), 50-75.
  • Smets, F. (2014). Financial stability and monetary policy: How closely interlinked?. the International Journal of Central Banking, 35th issue (June 2014), 263-300.
  • Sollis, R. (2009), “A simple unit root test against asymmetric STAR nonlinearity with an application to real exchange rates in Nordic countries”, Economic Modelling, 26: 118-125.
  • TCMB, (2015). Finansal İstikrar: Türkiye’de Finansal İstikrar Gelişmeleri, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr
  • Van Roye, B. (2011). Financial stress and economic activity in Germany and the Euro Area (No. 1743). Kiel Working Paper.
  • White, W.R., 2006. Is price stability enough?, BIS Working Paper, 205.
  • Woodford, M., 2012. Inflation targeting and financial stability, NBER Working Paper,17967.
  • Yılancı, V. ve Tıraşoğlu, M. (2016), Türkiye’nin Makroekonomik Zaman Serilerinin Doğrusallığının Testi. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(2), 1-16.
There are 50 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Ömer Yalçınkaya 0000-0002-1210-2405

Halil İbrahim Aydın 0000-0001-6783-4905

Publication Date March 23, 2022
Submission Date January 16, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 9 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Yalçınkaya, Ö., & Aydın, H. İ. (2022). PARA POLİTİKASI TASARIMLARINDA FİYAT VE FİNANSAL İSTİKRAR İLİŞKİSİ: EURO ALANINDAN KANITLAR (1999:01-2020:12). Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty, 9(1), 262-293. https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.862481