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YAŞLANAN NÜFUS MİLLİ GELİRİ NASIL ETKİLER? G-20 ÜLKELERİNDEN KANITLAR

Year 2022, Volume: 9 Issue: 3, 1806 - 1825, 29.11.2022
https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.1033643

Abstract

Doğum oranlarındaki azalış, beklenen yaşam süresindeki artış küresel yaş yapısında önemli bir değişime neden olmaktadır. Toplam nüfus içerisinde yaş gruplarının oranının değişmesi, özellikle yaşlı nüfus oranının artması ile ekonomik hayatta bazı değişimler yaşanmıştır. Bu değişimler genç, çalışma çağı ve yaşlı nüfus grupları arasında işgücü arzı, tasarruf, tüketim, kamusal harcamalar ve beşerî sermaye gibi konuların farklılaşmasına yol açmıştır. Nüfustaki artışın ekonomik büyümeyi tüketim ve tasarruf modelleri, kamusal sosyal harcama ve insan sermayesi olarak üç mekanizma yoluyla etkileyeceği belirtilmektedir. Bu çalışma ile nüfus yaşlanmasının milli geliri nasıl etkileyeceği açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu bağlamda G20 ülkeleri verileri kullanılarak panel veri analizi yöntemi ile demografik değişkenler ve milli gelir arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Analiz sonuçları, toplam nüfus içinde çalışma çağındaki nüfusun oranı arttıkça milli gelirin arttığı görülmektedir. Ayrıca toplam nüfus içinde yaşlı nüfusun artmasının da milli geliri arttırdığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Elde edilen bu sonuçlar istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır.

References

  • Acemoglu, D. ve P. Restrepo (2017), “Secular Stagnation? The Effects of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation,” American Economic Review, 107(5),174-179.
  • Aguila, E. (2011), “Personal retirement accounts and saving”. American Economic Journal: Eco-nomic Policy, 3, 1-24.
  • Aidi, H. O., Emecheta, C., ve Ngwudiobu, I. M. (2016). Population dynamics and economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 7(15).
  • Akintunde, T. S., Olomola, P. A. and Oladeji, S. I. (2013). “Population Dynamics and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa” Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(11), 148-157.
  • Alders, P. ve Broer, D. P. (2005), “Ageing, fertility, and growth”. Journal of Public Economics, 89, 1075-1095.
  • Arellano, M. ve Bond, S. (1991). “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations”, Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277-297.
  • Barlow, R. (1994). Population growth and economic growth: Some more correlations. Population and Development Review, 153-165. Bloom, D. E., D.Canning, ve G.Fink. (2011). Population Aging and Economic Growth. NBER Working Paper No. 16705.
  • Bloom, D.E., D. Canning, ve J. E. Finlay. (2010). Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia.The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 19, s.61 – 89.
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., ve Fink, G. (2011). “Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth”, Program on the Global Demography of Aging Working Paper Series, No: 64, January, s. 1-39: 12-13.
  • Dağlı, İ., ve Ezanoğlu, Z. (2021). Ar-Ge, Patent ve İleri Teknoloji İhracatının Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkileri: OECD Ülkeleri İçin Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi. Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches, 10(1).
  • Díaz-Giménez, J. ve Díaz-saavedra, J. (2009), “Delaying retirement in Spain”. Review of Economic Dynamics, 12, 147-167.
  • Elgin, C. ve Tumen, S. (2010), “Can sustained economic growth and declining popula¬tion coexist? Barro-Becker children meet Lucas”. Economic Modelling, 29,
  • Futagami, K., ve Nakajima, T. (2001). Population aging and economic growth. Journal of Macroeconomics, 1(23), 31-44.
  • Garza-Rodriguez, J., Andrade-Velasco, C., Martinez-Silva, K., Renteria-Rodriguez, F., ve Vallejo-Castillo, P. (2016). The relationship between population growth and economic growth in Mexico. Jorge Garza-Rodriguez and Cecilia I. Andrade-Velasco and Karen D. Martinez-Silva and Francisco D. Renteria-Rodriguez and Pedro A. Vallejo-Castillo,(2016)''The relationship between population growth and economic growth in Mexico'', Economics Bulletin, 36(1), 97-107.
  • Greene, W. (2000), Econometric Analysis, New York:Prentice-Hall.
  • Günsoy, G., ve Tekeli, S. (2015). Nüfusun Yaşlanması ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Analiz. Amme İdaresi Dergisi, 48(1), 35-87.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978). “Specification tests in econometrics”, Econometrica, 46, s. 1251–1271.onomic Growth. Korea and the World Economy VI Conference, University of Wollongong, 2007.
  • Kaygısız, A.D. (2021). Demografik Dönüşümün Milli Gelir Üzerindeki Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi. Stratejik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 5(2), 231-243.
  • Kelley, A. C., ve Schmidt, R. M. (1996). Saving, dependency and development. Journal of population economics, 9(4), 365-386. Klasen, S., ve Lawson, D. (2007). The impact of population growth on economic growth and poverty reduction in Uganda (No. 133). Diskussionsbeiträge.
  • Lee, H. H., Huh, H. S., Lee, Y. Y., ve Lim, J. Y. (2013). Effects of population aging on economic growth: A panel analysis. Seoul Journal of Economics, 26, 401-432.
  • Lee, H. H., ve Shin, K. (2019). Nonlinear effects of population aging on economic growth. Japan and the World Economy, 51, 100963.
  • Lee, H.-H., Huh, H.-S., Lee, Y.-Y. Ve Lim, J.-Y., (2013). Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth: A Panel Analysis (November 29, 2013). Seoul Journal of Economics 26: 401-432.
  • Lee, H-H. and Shin, K. (2019). Nonlinear Effects Of Population Aging On Economic Growth? Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, , Hitotsubashi University , 2-1, HIAS-E-86
  • Lisenkova, K., Mérette, M. ve wright, R. (2013), “Population ageing and the labour market: modelling size and age-specific effects”. Economic Modelling, 35, 981-989.
  • Ludwig, A., Schelkle, T. ve vogel, E. (2012), “Demographic change, human capital and welfare”. Review of Economic Dynamics, 5, 94-107.
  • Maestas N., K. J. Mullen ve D. Powell (2016). The Effect Of Populatıon Agıng On Economıc Growth. The Labor Force And Productıvıty. Working Paper No: 22452, http://www.nber.org/papers/w22452
  • Nagarajan, N. R., Teıxeıra, A. A. C., ve Sılva, S. T. (2016). The impact of an ageing population on economic growth: an exploratory review of the main mechanisms, Análise Social, 218, li (1), 4-35.
  • Park, D., ve Rhee, C. (2007). “Population Aging an Financial Markets: A Cross-country Study.” Seoul Journal of Economics 20 (No. 3 2007): 333-54.
  • Pérez-Brignoli, H. (2001). Human capital, fertility decline, and economic development: the case of Costa Rica since 1950. In XXIVth IUSSP General Population Conference, S39 Population and Development. 1 (6).
  • Pham T. N. ve Vo, D. H. (2019). Aging Population And Economic Growth İN DEVELOPİNG Countries: A Quantile Regression Approach. Business And Economics Research Group, Munich Personal Repec Archive Paper no. 103279.
  • Ranganathan, S., Swain, R. B., ve Sumpter, D. J. (2015). The demographic transition and economic growth: implications for development policy. Palgrave Communications, 1(1), 1-8.
  • Roodman, D. M. (2009). A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71, 135–158.
  • Rosado, J. A., ve Alvarado, I. (2017). From population age structure and savings rate to economic growth: Evidence from Ecuador. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(3), 352.
  • Savaş, B. (2008). The relationship between population and economic growth: empirical evidence from the Central Asian Economies. Orta Asya ve Kafkasya Araştırmaları, (06), 135-153.
  • Simon, J. L. 1989. "On aggregate empirical studies relating population variables to economic development," Population and Development Review 15: 323-332.
  • Skirbekk, V. (2003), “Age and Individual Productivity: A Literature Survey”, MPIDR Working Paper WP 2003-028, Max-Planck Institute for Demographic Research
  • Tatoğlu, Y. F. (2018). İleri Panel Veri Ekonometrisi: Stata Uygulamalı, 3. Baskı, İstanbul: Beta Yayıncılık.
  • Telatar, O. M., ve Terzi, H. (2010). Nüfus ve eğitimin ekonomik büyümeye etkisi: Türkiye üzerine bir inceleme. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(2), 197-214.
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, Massachusetts:The MIT Press.

HOW AGING POPULATION AFFECTS NATIONAL INCOME? EVIDENCE FROM G-20 COUNTRIES

Year 2022, Volume: 9 Issue: 3, 1806 - 1825, 29.11.2022
https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.1033643

Abstract

The decrease in birth rates and the increase in life expectancy cause a significant change in the global age structure. There have been some changes in economic life with the change in the ratio of age groups in the total population, especially the increase in the proportion of the elderly population. These changes have led to the differentiation of subjects such as labor supply, savings, consumption, public expenditures and human capital among young, working age and elderly population groups. It is stated that the increase in population will affect economic growth through three mechanisms as consumption and savings models, public social expenditure and human capital. In this study, it has been tried to explain how population aging will affect national income. In this context, the relationship between demographic variables and national income was examined by panel data analysis method using the data of G20 countries. The results of the analysis show that as the ratio of the working age population in the total population increases, the national income increases. In addition, it has been concluded that the increase in the elderly population in the total population also increases the national income. These results are statistically significant.

References

  • Acemoglu, D. ve P. Restrepo (2017), “Secular Stagnation? The Effects of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation,” American Economic Review, 107(5),174-179.
  • Aguila, E. (2011), “Personal retirement accounts and saving”. American Economic Journal: Eco-nomic Policy, 3, 1-24.
  • Aidi, H. O., Emecheta, C., ve Ngwudiobu, I. M. (2016). Population dynamics and economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 7(15).
  • Akintunde, T. S., Olomola, P. A. and Oladeji, S. I. (2013). “Population Dynamics and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa” Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(11), 148-157.
  • Alders, P. ve Broer, D. P. (2005), “Ageing, fertility, and growth”. Journal of Public Economics, 89, 1075-1095.
  • Arellano, M. ve Bond, S. (1991). “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations”, Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277-297.
  • Barlow, R. (1994). Population growth and economic growth: Some more correlations. Population and Development Review, 153-165. Bloom, D. E., D.Canning, ve G.Fink. (2011). Population Aging and Economic Growth. NBER Working Paper No. 16705.
  • Bloom, D.E., D. Canning, ve J. E. Finlay. (2010). Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia.The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 19, s.61 – 89.
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., ve Fink, G. (2011). “Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth”, Program on the Global Demography of Aging Working Paper Series, No: 64, January, s. 1-39: 12-13.
  • Dağlı, İ., ve Ezanoğlu, Z. (2021). Ar-Ge, Patent ve İleri Teknoloji İhracatının Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkileri: OECD Ülkeleri İçin Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi. Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches, 10(1).
  • Díaz-Giménez, J. ve Díaz-saavedra, J. (2009), “Delaying retirement in Spain”. Review of Economic Dynamics, 12, 147-167.
  • Elgin, C. ve Tumen, S. (2010), “Can sustained economic growth and declining popula¬tion coexist? Barro-Becker children meet Lucas”. Economic Modelling, 29,
  • Futagami, K., ve Nakajima, T. (2001). Population aging and economic growth. Journal of Macroeconomics, 1(23), 31-44.
  • Garza-Rodriguez, J., Andrade-Velasco, C., Martinez-Silva, K., Renteria-Rodriguez, F., ve Vallejo-Castillo, P. (2016). The relationship between population growth and economic growth in Mexico. Jorge Garza-Rodriguez and Cecilia I. Andrade-Velasco and Karen D. Martinez-Silva and Francisco D. Renteria-Rodriguez and Pedro A. Vallejo-Castillo,(2016)''The relationship between population growth and economic growth in Mexico'', Economics Bulletin, 36(1), 97-107.
  • Greene, W. (2000), Econometric Analysis, New York:Prentice-Hall.
  • Günsoy, G., ve Tekeli, S. (2015). Nüfusun Yaşlanması ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Analiz. Amme İdaresi Dergisi, 48(1), 35-87.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978). “Specification tests in econometrics”, Econometrica, 46, s. 1251–1271.onomic Growth. Korea and the World Economy VI Conference, University of Wollongong, 2007.
  • Kaygısız, A.D. (2021). Demografik Dönüşümün Milli Gelir Üzerindeki Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi. Stratejik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 5(2), 231-243.
  • Kelley, A. C., ve Schmidt, R. M. (1996). Saving, dependency and development. Journal of population economics, 9(4), 365-386. Klasen, S., ve Lawson, D. (2007). The impact of population growth on economic growth and poverty reduction in Uganda (No. 133). Diskussionsbeiträge.
  • Lee, H. H., Huh, H. S., Lee, Y. Y., ve Lim, J. Y. (2013). Effects of population aging on economic growth: A panel analysis. Seoul Journal of Economics, 26, 401-432.
  • Lee, H. H., ve Shin, K. (2019). Nonlinear effects of population aging on economic growth. Japan and the World Economy, 51, 100963.
  • Lee, H.-H., Huh, H.-S., Lee, Y.-Y. Ve Lim, J.-Y., (2013). Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth: A Panel Analysis (November 29, 2013). Seoul Journal of Economics 26: 401-432.
  • Lee, H-H. and Shin, K. (2019). Nonlinear Effects Of Population Aging On Economic Growth? Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, , Hitotsubashi University , 2-1, HIAS-E-86
  • Lisenkova, K., Mérette, M. ve wright, R. (2013), “Population ageing and the labour market: modelling size and age-specific effects”. Economic Modelling, 35, 981-989.
  • Ludwig, A., Schelkle, T. ve vogel, E. (2012), “Demographic change, human capital and welfare”. Review of Economic Dynamics, 5, 94-107.
  • Maestas N., K. J. Mullen ve D. Powell (2016). The Effect Of Populatıon Agıng On Economıc Growth. The Labor Force And Productıvıty. Working Paper No: 22452, http://www.nber.org/papers/w22452
  • Nagarajan, N. R., Teıxeıra, A. A. C., ve Sılva, S. T. (2016). The impact of an ageing population on economic growth: an exploratory review of the main mechanisms, Análise Social, 218, li (1), 4-35.
  • Park, D., ve Rhee, C. (2007). “Population Aging an Financial Markets: A Cross-country Study.” Seoul Journal of Economics 20 (No. 3 2007): 333-54.
  • Pérez-Brignoli, H. (2001). Human capital, fertility decline, and economic development: the case of Costa Rica since 1950. In XXIVth IUSSP General Population Conference, S39 Population and Development. 1 (6).
  • Pham T. N. ve Vo, D. H. (2019). Aging Population And Economic Growth İN DEVELOPİNG Countries: A Quantile Regression Approach. Business And Economics Research Group, Munich Personal Repec Archive Paper no. 103279.
  • Ranganathan, S., Swain, R. B., ve Sumpter, D. J. (2015). The demographic transition and economic growth: implications for development policy. Palgrave Communications, 1(1), 1-8.
  • Roodman, D. M. (2009). A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71, 135–158.
  • Rosado, J. A., ve Alvarado, I. (2017). From population age structure and savings rate to economic growth: Evidence from Ecuador. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(3), 352.
  • Savaş, B. (2008). The relationship between population and economic growth: empirical evidence from the Central Asian Economies. Orta Asya ve Kafkasya Araştırmaları, (06), 135-153.
  • Simon, J. L. 1989. "On aggregate empirical studies relating population variables to economic development," Population and Development Review 15: 323-332.
  • Skirbekk, V. (2003), “Age and Individual Productivity: A Literature Survey”, MPIDR Working Paper WP 2003-028, Max-Planck Institute for Demographic Research
  • Tatoğlu, Y. F. (2018). İleri Panel Veri Ekonometrisi: Stata Uygulamalı, 3. Baskı, İstanbul: Beta Yayıncılık.
  • Telatar, O. M., ve Terzi, H. (2010). Nüfus ve eğitimin ekonomik büyümeye etkisi: Türkiye üzerine bir inceleme. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(2), 197-214.
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, Massachusetts:The MIT Press.
There are 39 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Ayşe Durgun 0000-0002-8062-7473

Zeynep Ezanoğlu 0000-0002-4601-7567

Early Pub Date November 27, 2022
Publication Date November 29, 2022
Submission Date December 7, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 9 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Durgun, A., & Ezanoğlu, Z. (2022). YAŞLANAN NÜFUS MİLLİ GELİRİ NASIL ETKİLER? G-20 ÜLKELERİNDEN KANITLAR. Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty, 9(3), 1806-1825. https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.1033643