A Theoretical, Conceptual and Statistical Evaluation of Real Wages in the Context of the Monetary Illusion in the Inflation Environment and Industry 4.0

Year 2022, , 227 - 243, 15.05.2022

Ahmet Efe

https://doi.org/10.33712/mana.1084069

Abstract

Decreasing real wages and negative taxation with inflation is a critical and controversial issue that is frequently brought up by trade unions but is not generally accepted by employers and governments. While real wages generally show a downward trend in inflation, workers' rejoicing at the hikes they receive was first reported in the literature by Irving Fisher and then Milton Friedman as a "money illusion" and macroeconomists are continuing studies on this subject. Discussions continue that many white-collar business areas will now reach a point where they can be freed from workers, with artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms and robotic technology taking automation to a higher level. Especially with the Industry 4.0 (4IR) paradigm in which dark factories and complete automation are discussed, while the current employment areas are shrinking, it has been a matter of curiosity how real wages will follow and whether a monetary illusion will occur. In this study, in the light of the relevant literature and sectoral reports, the decline in real wages is analyzed in the context of the Turkish public sector, and futuristic evaluations are made in connection with technological progress. In addition, it was given importance to determine the wage groups in which the course of real wages decreased between two points. According to the findings, it has been determined that wages did not see a significant increase in real terms between 2003 and 2022, and the wage group that suffered actual losses was the academicians, general managers and governors in the sample. Our study argues that there is a monetary illusion on the real wages, and automation systems developed with AI can provide the opportunity to easily access accurate information on time about nominal and real wages and monetary illusion status through innovative MIS applications.

Keywords

Monetary Illusion, Real Wages, Inflation, Industry 4.0, MIS

Enflasyon Ortamındaki Parasal İllüzyon ve Endüstri 4.0 Bağlamında Reel Ücretler Üzerinde Kuramsal, Kavramsal ve İstatistiksel Bir Değerlendirme

Abstract

Enflasyonist ortamlarda reel ücretler genelde düşüş eğilimi gösterirken işçilerin aldıkları zamlara sevinmeleri “Money ilusion- parasal yanılgı” olarak önce Irving Fisher ve daha sonra da Milton Friedman tarafından literatüre geçirilmiş olup halen bu konuda çalışmalar özellikle makro iktisatçılar tarafından devam ettirilmektedir. Aslında reel ücretlerin düştüğü ve aslında enflasyonla birlikte negatif vergileme yapıldığı konusu işçi sendikaları tarafından sıkça gündeme getirilen ancak işverenler ile hükümetler tarafından genelde hiçbir şekilde kabul edilmeyen kritik ve tartışmalı bir husustur. Yapay zekâ (YZ) algoritmaları ile robotik teknolojinin otomasyonu ileri seviyeye çıkarmasıyla pek çok beyaz yaka iş alanlarının da artık işçilerden arındırılabilecek bir noktaya varacağı üzerinde tartışmalar devam etmektedir. Özellikle karanlık fabrikaların ve tam otomasyonun konuşulduğu Endüstri 4.0 (4IR) paradigması ile mevcut istihdam alanları daralırken reel ücretlerin nasıl bir seyir izleyeceği ve parasal illüzyonun meydana gelip gelmeyeceği merak konusu olmuştur. Bu çalışmada, ilgili literatür ve sektörel raporlar ışığında reel ücretlerdeki düşüş Türkiye kamu sektörü bağlamında analiz edilmekte ve teknolojik ilerlemeyle bağlantılı olarak fütürist değerlendirmeler yapılmaktadır. Ayrıca reel ücretlerin iki nokta arasındaki seyrinde düşüş yaşanan ücret gruplarının da belirlenmesine önem verilmiştir. Yapılan tespitlere göre 2003 ile 2022 yılları arasında reel olarak ücretlerin ciddi bir artış görmemiş olduğu ve reel kayba uğrayan ücret grubunun da örneklemdeki akademisyenler, genel müdürler ve valiler olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Çalışmamızda reel ücretlerle ilgili parasal illüzyonun mevcut olduğu ve YZ ile gelişen otomasyon sistemlerinin akıllı YBS uygulamaları üzerinden nominal ve reel ücretler ve parasal illüzyon durumu hakkında kolayca doğru bilgiye zamanında ulaşabilme imkânı sağlayabileceği savunulmaktadır.

Keywords

Parasal Yanılgı, Reel Ücretler, Enflasyon, Endüstri 4.0, YBS

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