THE BENFORD’S LAW AND FINANCIAL STATEMENT ITEMS: AN ANALYSIS OF THE BIST INSURANCE SECTOR

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 74, 67 - 80, 16.01.2025

Nazif Ayyıldız

https://doi.org/10.55322/mdbakis.1456102

Öz

The Benford's Law is a statistical principle that indicates a certain pattern followed by the initial digits in natural datasets. In the financial audit process, Benford's Law can be utilized to identify potential irregularities, errors, and fraud in financial statement data. On the other hand, insurance companies exhibit differences from other businesses with their unique accounting systems and charts of accounts based on technical and mathematical calculations. In this study, the conformity of technical income, gross premiums, technical expenses, paid claims, and technical profit/loss items of the companies listed in the BIST Insurance Index for the period 2014–2023 to the first and second-digit reference distributions of Benford's Law has been examined. As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that the numerical distributions of these financial statement items in insurance companies comply with Benford's Law. This result indicates that there are no errors, irregularities, fraud, or manipulations detected in the preparation of financial statements, especially income statements, in insurance companies. At this point, it is considered important for insurance companies that critical indicators such as income, costs, and profit conform to reality and possess reliability and full disclosure characteristics of accounting concepts.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Audit, Benford, Chi-Square Test, Numerical Analysis, BIST Insurance Index

BENFORD YASASI VE FİNANSAL TABLO KALEMLERİ: BIST SİGORTA SEKTÖRÜ ANALİZİ

Öz

Benford Yasası, doğal veri kümelerinde başlangıç rakamlarının belirli bir düzeni takip ettiğini ifade eden bir istatistik prensibidir. Finansal denetim sürecinde Benford Yasası kullanılarak finansal tablo verilerinde oluşabilecek potansiyel düzensizlik, hata ve hileler belirlenebilmektedir. Diğer yandan sigorta işletmeleri, teknik ve matematiksel hesaplamalara dayanan özgün muhasebe sistemi ve hesap planlarıyla diğer işletmelerden farklılık göstermektedir. Bu çalışmada, 2014–2023 döneminde BIST Sigorta Endeksi’nde yer alan şirketlerin; teknik gelir, brüt primler, teknik giderler, ödenen tazminatlar ve teknik kar/zarar kalemlerinin Benford Yasası’nın birinci ve ikinci basamak referans dağılımlarına uygunluğu incelenmiştir. Gerçekleştirilen analizin sonucunda, sigorta şirketlerinin söz konusu finansal tablo kalemlerindeki rakamsal dağılımların Benford Yasası’na uyum sağladığı saptanmıştır. Elde edilen bu sonuç, sigorta şirketlerinde özellikle gelir tablolarının hazırlanmasında herhangi bir hata, düzensizlik, hile veya manipülasyonun tespit edilmediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu noktada, sigorta şirketleri açısından kritik olan gelir, maliyet ve kar gibi önemli göstergelerin gerçeğe uygun ve muhasebe kavramlarından güvenilirlik ve tam açıklama özelliklerine uymasının önemli olduğu düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Denetim, Benford Yasası, Ki-Kare Testi, Rakamsal Analiz, BIST Sigorta Endeksi

Kaynakça

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