Impacts of Hydrological Losses on Surface Temperatures in the Lakes Region: A Remote Sensing–Based Assessment

Abstract

Global climate change and intensifying anthropogenic pressures are precipitating increasingly profound hydrological crises within the freshwater reserves of the Mediterranean Basin. This study employs remote sensing methodologies to investigate variations in water surface areas of nine selected lakes in the Lakes Region that one of Türkiye’s most ecologically sensitive zones between 1990 and 2025, alongside the subsequent impacts of these changes on the thermal regimes of the lakes and their immediate vicinities. The primary objective is to determine, through trend analysis of land and water surface temperatures, whether the long-term contraction of lake surfaces triggers a positive feedback mechanism. In this context, results derived from the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), calculated using Landsat satellite imagery, reveal a distinct, systematic, and continuous trend of water loss across the Lakes Region over the thirty-five-year period. Shifts in thermal processes were evaluated using the Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Water Surface Temperature (WST) indices. The findings indicate that Akşehir, Karataş, and Yarışlı lakes have completely desiccated during summer periods, transitioning into terrestrial surfaces. Lake Burdur has experienced approximately a 40% reduction in surface area, while Lake Eber has suffered an 80% loss. Although Lakes Beyşehir and Eğirdir have relatively minor areal fluctuations, they have incurred significant losses in terms of water volume. Conversely, Salda and Gölhisar lakes have managed to maintain their surface areas relatively well, largely due to their deep morphologies, favorable hydrogeological recharge conditions, and protected status. The Mann–Kendall trend analysis employed in this study identified a robust positive correlation between the recession of lake surfaces and rising surface temperatures. These results demonstrate that the loss of lake area is not merely a hydrological issue but also functions as a mechanism that disrupts the surface energy balance, thereby exacerbating warming at both local and regional scales.

Keywords

• : Lake District of Türkiye
• Land Surface Temperature (LST/LSWT)
• Remote Sensing
• Positive Feedback Mechanism
• Trend Analysis.

Supporting Institution

There are no supporting institutions or organizations

Ethical Statement

I guarantee that there is no ethical issue involved

Thanks

This is stated in the acknowledgments section.

Göller Yöresi’nde Hidrolojik Kayıpların Yüzey Sıcaklıkları Üzerindeki Etkileri: Uzaktan Algılama Tabanlı Bir İnceleme

Abstract

Küresel iklim değişikliği ve artan antropojenik baskılar, Akdeniz Havzası’ndaki tatlı su rezervleri üzerinde giderek derinleşen hidrolojik sorunlara yol açmaktadır. Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin ekolojik açıdan en hassas bölgelerinden biri olan Göller Yöresi’nde yer alan dokuz seçilmiş gölün 1990–2025 yılları arasındaki su yüzey alanı değişimlerini ve bu değişimlerin göl ve yakın çevresindeki termal rejim üzerindeki etkilerini uzaktan algılama yöntemleriyle incelemektedir. Çalışmanın temel amacı göl yüzeylerinde meydana gelen uzun süreli daralmaların kara ve su yüzey sıcaklıkları üzerinden eğilim analizleri ile pozitif bir geri besleme mekanizması oluşturup oluşturmadığını belirlemektir. Bu kapsamda Landsat uydu görüntüleri kullanılarak hesaplanan Modifiye Edilmiş Normalize Fark Su İndeksi sonuçları otuz beş yıllık süreçte Göller Yöresi genelinde belirgin sistematik ve süreklilik arz eden bir su kaybı eğilimini ortaya koymuştur. Termal süreçlerdeki değişimler Kara Yüzeyi Sıcaklık İndeksi ve Su Yüzeyi Sıcaklık İndeksi kullanılarak değerlendirilmiştir. Bulgular Akşehir, Karataş ve Yarışlı göllerinin yaz dönemlerinde tamamen kuruyarak karasal yüzeylere dönüştüğünü göstermektedir. Burdur Gölü yaklaşık %40, Eber Gölü ise %80 oranında su yüzey alanı kaybı yaşamıştır. Türkiye’nin en büyük tatlı su rezervleri olan Beyşehir ve Eğirdir göllerinde alansal değişim fazla olmasa da su hacmi açısından önemli kayıplar gerçekleşmiştir. Buna karşılık Salda ve Gölhisar gölleri derin morfolojileri, hidrojeolojik beslenme koşulları ve koruma statülerinin etkisiyle yüzey alanlarını görece olarak koruyabilmiştir. Çalışmada kullanılan yöntemlerden Mann–Kendall trend analizleri göl yüzeylerindeki gerileme ile yüzey sıcaklıkları arasında güçlü bir pozitif ilişki belirlenmiştir. Sonuçlar göl alanı kayıplarının yalnızca hidrolojik bir sorun olmadığını aynı zamanda yüzey enerji dengesini bozarak yerel ve bölgesel ölçekte ısınmayı pekiştiren bir mekanizma oluşturduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Göller Yöresi
• Yüzey Sıcaklığı (LST/LWST)
• Uzaktan Algılama
• Pozitif Geri Besleme
• Trend Analizi

Supporting Institution

Destekleyen kurum veya kuruluş bulunmamaktadır.

Ethical Statement

Etik gerektiren bir durum olmadığını taahhüt ederiz.

Thanks

Teşekkür bölümünde beyan edilmiştir.

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