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Terör Saldırıları ve Savunma Harcamalarının Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Analizi

Year 2022, , 115 - 134, 27.04.2022
https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1049937

Abstract

Devletlerin bütçelerinden savunma harcamalarına ayırdıkları payların bütçe içinde önemli bir ağırlığı vardır ve maliye politikasında bu harcama yayılım etkisi göstermektedir. Bu negatif dışsallık zaruri olabileceği gibi bazen güvenlik ikilemi orijinli de olabilmektedir. Bu çalışma kapsamında Türkiye’de önlenmesi zaruri olan terör saldırılarının ve savunma harcamalarının büyüme üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiş ve bu sayede de terörün bütçe kanalıyla ekonomik tahribatı ortaya konulmuştur. Sınır testi analizine göre terör saldırılarında meydana gelen artışlar kısa dönemde büyümeyi negatif etkilerken uzun dönemde etkisizdir. Savunma harcamalarında meydana gelen pozitif şoklar(artışlar) ise, büyüme üzerinde hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde negatif etki yaratmaktadır. Türkiye’de terörün önlenmesi ve savunma harcamalarında meydana gelebilecek azalma buradan arttırılan kaynaklar ile ülkenin makro iktisadi çıktılarını arttırmaya yönelik politikalarında önemli bir rol üstlenebilecektir.

References

  • • Ali, H. E. (2011). Military expenditures and human development: Guns and butter arguments revisited: A case study from Egypt. Peace economics, peace science and public policy, 17(1).
  • • Amin, A., Liu, Y., Yu, J., Chandio, A. A., Rasool, S. F., Luo, J., & Zaman, S. (2020). How does energy poverty affect economic development? A panel data analysis of South Asian countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 31623-31635.
  • • Antonakis, N. (1997). Defence spending and growth in Greece: a comment and further empirical evidence. Applied Economics Letters, 4(10), 651-655.
  • • Aydemir, Ahmet Fatih vd. “G-20 Ülkelerinde İşsizlik ve Askeri Harcamalar Arasındaki İlişkiler”. International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Kaposvár – Hungary, 29-31 August, 437-444, 2016.
  • • Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and defense in developing countries. Economic development and cultural change, 26(2), 271-280.
  • • Biswas, B., & Ram, R. (1986). Military expenditures and economic growth in less developed countries: An augmented model and further evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2), 361-372.
  • • Broock, W. A., Scheinkman, J. A., Dechert, W. D., & LeBaron, B. (1996). A test for independence based on the correlation dimension. Econometric reviews, 15(3), 197-235.
  • • Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 37(2), 149–192. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2984889
  • • Cohen, J. S., Stevenson, R., Mintz, A., & Ward, M. D. (1996). Defense expenditures and economic growth in Israel: the indirect link. Journal of Peace Research, 33(3), 341-352.
  • • Dakurah, A. H., Davies, S. P., & Sampath, R. K. (2001). Defense spending and economic growth in developing countries: A causality analysis. Journal of Policy Modeling, 23(6), 651-658.
  • • Deger, S. (1986). Economic development and defense expenditure. Economic development and cultural change, 35(1), 179-196.
  • • Deger, S., & Smith, R. (1983). Military expenditure and growth in less developed countries. Journal of conflict resolution, 27(2), 335-353.
  • • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
  • • Dunne, J. P., Smith, R. P., & Willenbockel, D. (2005). Models of military expenditure and growth: A critical review. Defence and peace economics, 16(6), 449-461.
  • • Dunne, P., Nikolaidou, E., & Vougas, D. (2001). Defence spending and economic growth: a causal analysis for Greece and Turkey. Defence and peace economics, 12(1), 5-26.
  • • Elveren, A. Y. (2012). Military spending and income inequality: evidence on cointegration and causality for Turkey, 1963–2007. Defence and Peace Economics, 23(3), 289-301.
  • • Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
  • • Erdugan, F., & Özçelik, Ö. (2020). Savunma harcamaları ve istihdam ilişkisi: Panel veri analizi. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(2), 152-168.
  • • Frederiksen, P. C., & Looney, R. E. (1983). Defense expenditures and economic growth in developing countries. Armed Forces & Society, 9(4), 633-645.
  • • Gujarati, D.N. (1999). Temel Ekonometri, (Çeviri: Şenesen, Ü. ve Günlük Şenesen, G.). Literatür Yayıncılık, İstanbul.
  • • Günlük-Senesen, G. (2002). Budgetary trade-offs of security expenditures in Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 13(5), 385-403.
  • • Halicioglu, F. (2004). Defense spending and economic growth in Turkey: an empirical application of new macroeconomic theory. Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 2(3), 34-43.
  • • Heo, U., 1999. Defense spending and economic growth in South Korea: The indirect link. Journal of Peace Research, 36(6), 699-70
  • • Heo, Uk - Ye, Min. “Defense Spending and Economic Growth Around the Globe: The Direct and Indirect Link”. International Interactions 42/5 (2016), 774-796.
  • • Huang, C., and A. Mintz. 1991. “Defence Expenditures and Economic Growth: The Externality Effect.” Defence Economics 3 (1): 35–40.
  • • Jervis, R. (1978). Cooperation under the security dilemma. World politics, 30(2), 167-214.
  • • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
  • • Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with appucations to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
  • • Kapetanios, G. & Y. Shin & A. Snell (2003), “Testing For a Unit Root in the Nonlinear STAR Framework”, Journal of Econometrics, 112(2), 359-379.
  • • Karagol, E. (2006). The relationship between external debt, defence expenditures and GNP revisited: The case of Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 17(1), 47-57.
  • • Kusi, N. K. (1994). Economic growth and defense spending in developing countries: A causal analysis. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 38(1), 152-159.
  • • Looney, R. E., & Frederiksen, P. C. (1986). Defense expenditures, external public debt and growth in developing countries. Journal of Peace Research, 23(4), 329-337.
  • • Luqman, M., & Antonakakis, N. (2021). Guns better than butter in Pakistan? The dilemma of military expenditure, human development, and economic growth. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 173, 121143.
  • • Majeski, S. J. 1992. Defence Budgeting, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Performance, 217–237. London: Routledge.
  • • Mintz, A., and C. Huang. 1990. “Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth, and the ‘Peace Dividend’.” The American Political Science Review 84: 1283–1293.
  • • Mintz, A., and R. T. Stevenson. 1995. “Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth, and the ‘Peace Dividend’: A Longitudinal Analysis of 103 Countries.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 39 (2): 283–305.
  • • Mueller, M. J., & Atesoglu, H. S. (1993). Defense spending, technological change, and economic growth in the United States. Defence and Peace Economics, 4(3), 259-269.
  • • Mylonidis, N. (2008). Revisiting the nexus between military spending and growth in the European Union. Defence and Peace Economics, 19(4), 265-272.
  • • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied economics, 37(17), 1979-1990.
  • • Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In Strom S (ed.) Econometrics and economic theory in the 20th century: the Ragnar Frisch centennial symposium. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2678547
  • • Raza, S. A., Shahbaz, M., & Paramati, S. R. (2017). Dynamics of military expenditure and income inequality in Pakistan. Social Indicators Research, 131(3), 1035-1055.
  • • Safdari, M., Keramati, J., Mahmoodi, M., 2011.The relationship between military expenditure and economic growth in four Asian countries. Chinese Business Review, 10(2), 112-118.
  • • Sezgin, S. (2001). An empirical analysis of turkey's defence‐growth relationships with a multi‐equation model (1956–1994). Defence and Peace Economics, 12(1), 69-86.
  • • Shahbaz, M., Afza, T., & Shabbir, M. S. (2013). Does defence spending impede economic growth? Cointegration and causality analysis for Pakistan. Defence and Peace Economics, 24(2), 105-120.
  • • Stewart, D. B. (1991). Economic growth and the defense burden in Africa and Latin America: Simulations from a dynamic model. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 40(1), 189-207.
  • • Tiwari, A. K., & Shahbaz, M. (2013). Does defence spending stimulate economic growth in India? A revisit. Defence and Peace Economics, 24(4), 371-395.
  • • Topal, M. H. (2018). Türkiye’de askeri harcamalar ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin bir analizi (1960-2016). Maliye Dergisi, (174), 175-202.
  • • Wang, T. P., Shyu, S. H. P., Chou, H. C., 2012.The impact of defense expenditure on economic productivity in OECD countries. Economic Modelling, 29(6), 2104-2114.
  • • Wijeweera, A., & Webb, M. J. (2009). Military spending and economic growth in Sri Lanka: A time series analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 20(6), 499-508.
  • • Yang, H., Hong, C., Jung, S., & Lee, J. D. (2015). Arms or butter: The economic effect of an increase in military expenditure. Journal of Policy Modeling, 37(4), 596-615.
  • • Yildirim, J., & Sezgin, S. (2003). Military expenditure and employment in Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 14(2), 129-139.
  • • Yolcu Karadam, D., Yildirim, J., & Öcal, N. (2017). Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries and Turkey: a non-linear panel data approach. Defence and Peace Economics, 28(6), 719-730.

Terrorist Attacks and The Effect of Defense Expenditure on Growth: Analysis of Turkey

Year 2022, , 115 - 134, 27.04.2022
https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1049937

Abstract

The shares allocated by the states to defense expenditures from their budgets have a significant weight in the budget and this expenditure has a spillover effect in fiscal policy. While this negative externality may be necessary, it may sometimes be of security dilemma origin. Within the scope of this study, the effects of terrorist attacks and defense expenditures, which must be prevented in Turkey, on growth have been examined and thus, the economic damage of terrorism through the budget channel has been revealed. According to the boundary test analysis, while increases in terrorist attacks affect growth negatively in the short run, they are ineffective in the long run. Positive shocks (increases) in defense expenditures have a negative impact on growth both in the short and long term. The reduction in the prevention of terrorism and defense expenditures in Turkey will play an important role in the policies aimed at increasing the macroeconomic outputs of the country with the resources increased from there.

References

  • • Ali, H. E. (2011). Military expenditures and human development: Guns and butter arguments revisited: A case study from Egypt. Peace economics, peace science and public policy, 17(1).
  • • Amin, A., Liu, Y., Yu, J., Chandio, A. A., Rasool, S. F., Luo, J., & Zaman, S. (2020). How does energy poverty affect economic development? A panel data analysis of South Asian countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 31623-31635.
  • • Antonakis, N. (1997). Defence spending and growth in Greece: a comment and further empirical evidence. Applied Economics Letters, 4(10), 651-655.
  • • Aydemir, Ahmet Fatih vd. “G-20 Ülkelerinde İşsizlik ve Askeri Harcamalar Arasındaki İlişkiler”. International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Kaposvár – Hungary, 29-31 August, 437-444, 2016.
  • • Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and defense in developing countries. Economic development and cultural change, 26(2), 271-280.
  • • Biswas, B., & Ram, R. (1986). Military expenditures and economic growth in less developed countries: An augmented model and further evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2), 361-372.
  • • Broock, W. A., Scheinkman, J. A., Dechert, W. D., & LeBaron, B. (1996). A test for independence based on the correlation dimension. Econometric reviews, 15(3), 197-235.
  • • Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 37(2), 149–192. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2984889
  • • Cohen, J. S., Stevenson, R., Mintz, A., & Ward, M. D. (1996). Defense expenditures and economic growth in Israel: the indirect link. Journal of Peace Research, 33(3), 341-352.
  • • Dakurah, A. H., Davies, S. P., & Sampath, R. K. (2001). Defense spending and economic growth in developing countries: A causality analysis. Journal of Policy Modeling, 23(6), 651-658.
  • • Deger, S. (1986). Economic development and defense expenditure. Economic development and cultural change, 35(1), 179-196.
  • • Deger, S., & Smith, R. (1983). Military expenditure and growth in less developed countries. Journal of conflict resolution, 27(2), 335-353.
  • • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
  • • Dunne, J. P., Smith, R. P., & Willenbockel, D. (2005). Models of military expenditure and growth: A critical review. Defence and peace economics, 16(6), 449-461.
  • • Dunne, P., Nikolaidou, E., & Vougas, D. (2001). Defence spending and economic growth: a causal analysis for Greece and Turkey. Defence and peace economics, 12(1), 5-26.
  • • Elveren, A. Y. (2012). Military spending and income inequality: evidence on cointegration and causality for Turkey, 1963–2007. Defence and Peace Economics, 23(3), 289-301.
  • • Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
  • • Erdugan, F., & Özçelik, Ö. (2020). Savunma harcamaları ve istihdam ilişkisi: Panel veri analizi. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(2), 152-168.
  • • Frederiksen, P. C., & Looney, R. E. (1983). Defense expenditures and economic growth in developing countries. Armed Forces & Society, 9(4), 633-645.
  • • Gujarati, D.N. (1999). Temel Ekonometri, (Çeviri: Şenesen, Ü. ve Günlük Şenesen, G.). Literatür Yayıncılık, İstanbul.
  • • Günlük-Senesen, G. (2002). Budgetary trade-offs of security expenditures in Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 13(5), 385-403.
  • • Halicioglu, F. (2004). Defense spending and economic growth in Turkey: an empirical application of new macroeconomic theory. Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 2(3), 34-43.
  • • Heo, U., 1999. Defense spending and economic growth in South Korea: The indirect link. Journal of Peace Research, 36(6), 699-70
  • • Heo, Uk - Ye, Min. “Defense Spending and Economic Growth Around the Globe: The Direct and Indirect Link”. International Interactions 42/5 (2016), 774-796.
  • • Huang, C., and A. Mintz. 1991. “Defence Expenditures and Economic Growth: The Externality Effect.” Defence Economics 3 (1): 35–40.
  • • Jervis, R. (1978). Cooperation under the security dilemma. World politics, 30(2), 167-214.
  • • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
  • • Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with appucations to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
  • • Kapetanios, G. & Y. Shin & A. Snell (2003), “Testing For a Unit Root in the Nonlinear STAR Framework”, Journal of Econometrics, 112(2), 359-379.
  • • Karagol, E. (2006). The relationship between external debt, defence expenditures and GNP revisited: The case of Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 17(1), 47-57.
  • • Kusi, N. K. (1994). Economic growth and defense spending in developing countries: A causal analysis. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 38(1), 152-159.
  • • Looney, R. E., & Frederiksen, P. C. (1986). Defense expenditures, external public debt and growth in developing countries. Journal of Peace Research, 23(4), 329-337.
  • • Luqman, M., & Antonakakis, N. (2021). Guns better than butter in Pakistan? The dilemma of military expenditure, human development, and economic growth. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 173, 121143.
  • • Majeski, S. J. 1992. Defence Budgeting, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Performance, 217–237. London: Routledge.
  • • Mintz, A., and C. Huang. 1990. “Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth, and the ‘Peace Dividend’.” The American Political Science Review 84: 1283–1293.
  • • Mintz, A., and R. T. Stevenson. 1995. “Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth, and the ‘Peace Dividend’: A Longitudinal Analysis of 103 Countries.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 39 (2): 283–305.
  • • Mueller, M. J., & Atesoglu, H. S. (1993). Defense spending, technological change, and economic growth in the United States. Defence and Peace Economics, 4(3), 259-269.
  • • Mylonidis, N. (2008). Revisiting the nexus between military spending and growth in the European Union. Defence and Peace Economics, 19(4), 265-272.
  • • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied economics, 37(17), 1979-1990.
  • • Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In Strom S (ed.) Econometrics and economic theory in the 20th century: the Ragnar Frisch centennial symposium. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2678547
  • • Raza, S. A., Shahbaz, M., & Paramati, S. R. (2017). Dynamics of military expenditure and income inequality in Pakistan. Social Indicators Research, 131(3), 1035-1055.
  • • Safdari, M., Keramati, J., Mahmoodi, M., 2011.The relationship between military expenditure and economic growth in four Asian countries. Chinese Business Review, 10(2), 112-118.
  • • Sezgin, S. (2001). An empirical analysis of turkey's defence‐growth relationships with a multi‐equation model (1956–1994). Defence and Peace Economics, 12(1), 69-86.
  • • Shahbaz, M., Afza, T., & Shabbir, M. S. (2013). Does defence spending impede economic growth? Cointegration and causality analysis for Pakistan. Defence and Peace Economics, 24(2), 105-120.
  • • Stewart, D. B. (1991). Economic growth and the defense burden in Africa and Latin America: Simulations from a dynamic model. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 40(1), 189-207.
  • • Tiwari, A. K., & Shahbaz, M. (2013). Does defence spending stimulate economic growth in India? A revisit. Defence and Peace Economics, 24(4), 371-395.
  • • Topal, M. H. (2018). Türkiye’de askeri harcamalar ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin bir analizi (1960-2016). Maliye Dergisi, (174), 175-202.
  • • Wang, T. P., Shyu, S. H. P., Chou, H. C., 2012.The impact of defense expenditure on economic productivity in OECD countries. Economic Modelling, 29(6), 2104-2114.
  • • Wijeweera, A., & Webb, M. J. (2009). Military spending and economic growth in Sri Lanka: A time series analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 20(6), 499-508.
  • • Yang, H., Hong, C., Jung, S., & Lee, J. D. (2015). Arms or butter: The economic effect of an increase in military expenditure. Journal of Policy Modeling, 37(4), 596-615.
  • • Yildirim, J., & Sezgin, S. (2003). Military expenditure and employment in Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 14(2), 129-139.
  • • Yolcu Karadam, D., Yildirim, J., & Öcal, N. (2017). Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries and Turkey: a non-linear panel data approach. Defence and Peace Economics, 28(6), 719-730.
There are 53 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Finance
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Kubilay Çağrı Yılmaz 0000-0002-2489-9968

Publication Date April 27, 2022
Submission Date December 28, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2022

Cite

APA Yılmaz, K. Ç. (2022). Terör Saldırıları ve Savunma Harcamalarının Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Analizi. Maliye Ve Finans Yazıları(117), 115-134. https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1049937

Dergi özellikle maliye, finans ve bankacılık alanlarında faaliyet göstermektedir.