Research Article

Does Financial Development Asymmetrically Affect CO2 Emissions in Türkiye? A NARDL Approach

Number: 126 August 1, 2026
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Does Financial Development Asymmetrically Affect CO2 Emissions in Türkiye? A NARDL Approach

Abstract

This study examines the asymmetric effects of financial development, economic growth, trade openness, and inflation on CO2 emissions in Türkiye over the period 1976-2024 using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach. The results of the bounds test provide evidence of a cointegrating relationship among the variables. The empirical results demonstrate that, in the long term, negative shocks to financial development lead to a significant increase in CO₂ emissions, whereas positive shocks have no statistically significant effect. Similarly, in the long term, trade expansion increases emissions, while contractions in trade volume do not reduce them; short-run trade impacts, however, remain symmetric. This finding suggests that credit contractions adversely affect environmental quality. Positive inflation shocks temporarily raise CO2 emissions in the short run but reduce them in the long run through the contraction of aggregate demand. Overall, the results point to the need for nonlinear policy frameworks in Türkiye that account for financial stability.

Keywords

CO₂ Emissions, Financial Development, NARDL, Türkiye

References

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APA
Akgüneş, A. O., & Yıldız, F. (2026). Does Financial Development Asymmetrically Affect CO2 Emissions in Türkiye? A NARDL Approach. Maliye Ve Finans Yazıları, 126, 125-146. https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1916941
AMA
1.Akgüneş AO, Yıldız F. Does Financial Development Asymmetrically Affect CO2 Emissions in Türkiye? A NARDL Approach. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları. 2026;(126):125-146. doi:10.33203/mfy.1916941
Chicago
Akgüneş, Ahmet Oğuz, and Furkan Yıldız. 2026. “Does Financial Development Asymmetrically Affect CO2 Emissions in Türkiye? A NARDL Approach”. Maliye Ve Finans Yazıları, nos. 126: 125-46. https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1916941.
EndNote
Akgüneş AO, Yıldız F (August 1, 2026) Does Financial Development Asymmetrically Affect CO2 Emissions in Türkiye? A NARDL Approach. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları 126 125–146.
IEEE
[1]A. O. Akgüneş and F. Yıldız, “Does Financial Development Asymmetrically Affect CO2 Emissions in Türkiye? A NARDL Approach”, Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, no. 126, pp. 125–146, Aug. 2026, doi: 10.33203/mfy.1916941.
ISNAD
Akgüneş, Ahmet Oğuz - Yıldız, Furkan. “Does Financial Development Asymmetrically Affect CO2 Emissions in Türkiye? A NARDL Approach”. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları. 126 (August 1, 2026): 125-146. https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1916941.
JAMA
1.Akgüneş AO, Yıldız F. Does Financial Development Asymmetrically Affect CO2 Emissions in Türkiye? A NARDL Approach. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları. 2026;:125–146.
MLA
Akgüneş, Ahmet Oğuz, and Furkan Yıldız. “Does Financial Development Asymmetrically Affect CO2 Emissions in Türkiye? A NARDL Approach”. Maliye Ve Finans Yazıları, no. 126, Aug. 2026, pp. 125-46, doi:10.33203/mfy.1916941.
Vancouver
1.Ahmet Oğuz Akgüneş, Furkan Yıldız. Does Financial Development Asymmetrically Affect CO2 Emissions in Türkiye? A NARDL Approach. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları. 2026 Aug. 1;(126):125-46. doi:10.33203/mfy.1916941