EU27- Turkey Commodity Trade And The J- Curve: New Evidence From Asymmetry Analysis (The Case of Plastics Industry)

Year 2024, Issue: 122, 1 - 23, 01.10.2024

Eyüp Tekin , Mortaza Ojaghlou

https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1280806

Abstract

The J-curve is one of the key theories to determine foreign trade policy of a country. The J-curve phenomenon is based on the logic of concept that devaluation of national currencies makes exports cheaper for foreign and imports expansive for home country. Thus, export increase and import decrease that it make trade balance improve. The effects are not immediate, but are passed on with a lag through exchange rate effects. In our article, we aim to fill a gap in the literature by evaluating the plastics trade between the EU27 and Turkey within the framework of the j-curve concept.

Keywords

EU27- Turkey, J-Curve Effect, Foreign Trade Balance

AB27- Türkiye Emtia Ticareti ve J- Eğrisi: Asimetrik Analizinden Yeni Kanıtlar (Plastik Sektörü Örneği)

Abstract

Bir ülkenin dış ticaret politikasını belirleyici en önemli teoremlerden biri J- Eğrisidir. Parası değer kaybeden ülkede mallar ucuzlayacağından ihracatı artar ve ithalatı pahalı hale gelir. Kısa dönemde ticaret dengesi bozulur ve olumsuz bir hal alır. Bununla birlikte ihracatın artmasıyla uzun vadede dış ticarette bir denge oluşur. J-Eğrisi kavramı burada meydana gelir. Kısa vadedeki para değerinin düşüşünden kaynaklanan bu negatif etki J-Eğrisi olarak isimlendirilmiştir. Bu makalemizde AB27- TÜRKİYE arasındaki plastik ticaretini j-eğrisi kavramı çerçevesinde değerlendirerek literatürde bu alanda bir eksiği doldurmasını amaçlamaktayız.

Keywords

AB27- Türkiye, J- Eğri Etkisi, Dış Ticaret Dengesi, Plastik Sektörü

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