ABD’nin Ekonomik Gelişmesinin Tarihsel Bir Analizi (1947-2017)

Year 2019, , 209 - 222, 29.01.2019

Seçil Şenel Uzunkaya Hasan Dinçer , Serhat Yüksel

https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.477724

Cited By: 3

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı ABD'nin ekonomik gelişiminin
tarihsel bir bakış açısıyla değerlendirilmesidir. Bu amaçla, 1947 ve 2015
arasındaki dönemler için üç aylık veriler dikkate alınmıştır. Bu nedenle, bu
uzun döneme odaklanarak daha uygun sonuçların elde edilebilmesi için tarihsel
bir analiz yapılması amaçlanmıştır. Ayrıca ABD'nin ekonomik büyüme oranı
bağımlı değişken olarak kabul edilirken, GSYİH'nin dört farklı alt başlığı
(tüketim, özel yatırım, devlet harcamaları ve net ihracat) bağımsız değişkenler
olarak seçilmiştir. Öte yandan, analiz sürecinde MARS metodolojisi
kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, özel yatırım, hükümet harcamaları ve net ihracatın
ekonomik büyüme arasında pozitif bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Belirtilen
hususa ek olarak, devlet harcamalarının oranı %22.2'yi aştığında olumlu etkinin
azaldığı tespit edilmiştir. Öte yandan, net ihracatın negatif olması ve % 16.3'den
daha düşük bir yatırım oranı olması durumunda, ABD'nin ekonomik gelişimi
olumsuz yönde etkilenecektir. Bu sonuçlar, tüketim yerine GSYİH'nin diğer üç alt
bileşenlerinin ABD'nin ekonomik gelişimine katkı sağladığına dair çok önemli
bilgiler vermektedir. Bu sonuçları göz önünde bulundurarak, ABD'nin özellikle
özel yatırımlara ve ihracata odaklanarak büyüme stratejilerini uygulamaya
koyması önerilmektedir. Bu çerçevede, bu hedefe ulaşmak için yatırımcılara
vergi avantajlarının sağlanması yerinde olacaktır. Bu duruma ek olarak, hükümet
ayrıca, sanayi üretimini iyileştirmek için teşvikler vererek yatırım ve ihracatın
arttırılmasına olumlu etki edebilecektir.

Keywords

ABD Ekonomisi, GSYİH, Tarihsel Analiz, Ekonomik Kalkınma, MARS

A Historical Analysis of The Economic Development of The USA (1947-2017)

Abstract

The aim of this
study is to evaluate economic improvement of US. For this purpose, the
quarterly data for the periods between 1947 and 2015 is taken into the
consideration. Therefore, focusing on this long period provides a historical
view so that more appropriate results can be achieved. Moreover, economic
growth of US is considered as dependent variable whereas four different subtitles
of GDP (consumption, private investment, government expenditure and net export)
are selected as independent variables. Furthermore, multivariate adoptive
regression spline (MARS) methodology is used in the analysis process. The
findings show that private investment, government expenditure and net export
have a positive relationship between economic growth. It is identified that the
positive effect reduces when the percentage of government expenditure exceeds
22.2%. On the other side, in case of negative net export and having lower
investment ratio than 16.3%, economic development of US will be affected
negatively. These results give very important information that instead of
consumption, other three subtitles of GDP make a contribution to the economic
development of US. By considering these results, it is recommended that US
should mainly implement growth strategies by focusing on private investment and
net export. Within this framework, tax advantages for these investors can be
provided to reach this objective. In addition to this condition, government
should also give incentives to improve industrial production so that investment
and export can be increased.

Keywords

US Economy, GDP, Historical Analysis, Economic Development, MARS

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