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ABD’nin Ekonomik Gelişmesinin Tarihsel Bir Analizi (1947-2017)

Year 2019, , 209 - 222, 29.01.2019
https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.477724

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı ABD'nin ekonomik gelişiminin
tarihsel bir bakış açısıyla değerlendirilmesidir. Bu amaçla, 1947 ve 2015
arasındaki dönemler için üç aylık veriler dikkate alınmıştır. Bu nedenle, bu
uzun döneme odaklanarak daha uygun sonuçların elde edilebilmesi için tarihsel
bir analiz yapılması amaçlanmıştır. Ayrıca ABD'nin ekonomik büyüme oranı
bağımlı değişken olarak kabul edilirken, GSYİH'nin dört farklı alt başlığı
(tüketim, özel yatırım, devlet harcamaları ve net ihracat) bağımsız değişkenler
olarak seçilmiştir. Öte yandan, analiz sürecinde MARS metodolojisi
kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, özel yatırım, hükümet harcamaları ve net ihracatın
ekonomik büyüme arasında pozitif bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Belirtilen
hususa ek olarak, devlet harcamalarının oranı %22.2'yi aştığında olumlu etkinin
azaldığı tespit edilmiştir. Öte yandan, net ihracatın negatif olması ve % 16.3'den
daha düşük bir yatırım oranı olması durumunda, ABD'nin ekonomik gelişimi
olumsuz yönde etkilenecektir. Bu sonuçlar, tüketim yerine GSYİH'nin diğer üç alt
bileşenlerinin ABD'nin ekonomik gelişimine katkı sağladığına dair çok önemli
bilgiler vermektedir. Bu sonuçları göz önünde bulundurarak, ABD'nin özellikle
özel yatırımlara ve ihracata odaklanarak büyüme stratejilerini uygulamaya
koyması önerilmektedir. Bu çerçevede, bu hedefe ulaşmak için yatırımcılara
vergi avantajlarının sağlanması yerinde olacaktır. Bu duruma ek olarak, hükümet
ayrıca, sanayi üretimini iyileştirmek için teşvikler vererek yatırım ve ihracatın
arttırılmasına olumlu etki edebilecektir.

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A Historical Analysis of The Economic Development of The USA (1947-2017)

Year 2019, , 209 - 222, 29.01.2019
https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.477724

Abstract


The aim of this
study is to evaluate economic improvement of US. For this purpose, the
quarterly data for the periods between 1947 and 2015 is taken into the
consideration. Therefore, focusing on this long period provides a historical
view so that more appropriate results can be achieved. Moreover, economic
growth of US is considered as dependent variable whereas four different subtitles
of GDP (consumption, private investment, government expenditure and net export)
are selected as independent variables. Furthermore, multivariate adoptive
regression spline (MARS) methodology is used in the analysis process. The
findings show that private investment, government expenditure and net export
have a positive relationship between economic growth. It is identified that the
positive effect reduces when the percentage of government expenditure exceeds
22.2%. On the other side, in case of negative net export and having lower
investment ratio than 16.3%, economic development of US will be affected
negatively. These results give very important information that instead of
consumption, other three subtitles of GDP make a contribution to the economic
development of US. By considering these results, it is recommended that US
should mainly implement growth strategies by focusing on private investment and
net export. Within this framework, tax advantages for these investors can be
provided to reach this objective. In addition to this condition, government
should also give incentives to improve industrial production so that investment
and export can be increased.

References

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  • Baykul, A. (2018). Bölgesel Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerinde Ar-Ge Faaliyetlerinin Etkileri: Türkiye’de Düzey I Bölgelerinde Ampirik Bir İnceleme. Kırgızistan-Türkiye Manas Üniversitesi, 7(2), 143-154.
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  • Brueckner, M., Dabla-Norris, E., Gradstein, M., & Lederman, D. (2018). The rise of the middle class and economic growth in ASEAN. Journal of Asian Economics, 56, 48-58.
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  • Cappella Zielinski, R., Fordham, B. O., & Schilde, K. E. (2017). What goes up, must come down? The asymmetric effects of economic growth and international threat on military spending. Journal of Peace Research, 54(6), 791-805.
  • d’Agostino, G., Dunne, J. P., & Pieroni, L. (2016). Government spending, corruption and economic growth. World Development, 84, 190-205.
  • David, O. O., & Mohammed, Y. (2016). The Perceived Relations between Development Reforms, Stock Market Performance and Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1984-2014. Economy, 3(1), 31-39.
  • Dettrey, B. J., & Palmer, H. D. (2015). Partisan Differences in the Distributional Effects of Economic Growth: Stock Market Performance, Unemployment, and Political Control of the Presidency. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 25(3), 317-332.
  • Dincer, H. (2018). HHI-based evaluation of the European banking sector using an integrated fuzzy approach. Kybernetes.
  • Dinçer, H., Yüksel, S., & Martínez, L. (2019). Balanced scorecard-based Analysis about European Energy Investment Policies: A hybrid hesitant fuzzy decision-making approach with Quality Function Deployment. Expert Systems with Applications, 115, 152-171.
  • Dinçer, H., Hacıoğlu, Ü., & Yüksel, S. (2017a). A Strategic Approach to Global Financial Crisis in Banking Sector: A Critical Appraisal of Banking Strategies Using Fuzzy ANP and Fuzzy Topsis Methods. International Journal of Sustainable Economies Management (IJSEM), 6(1), 1-21.
  • Dinçer, H., Yüksel, S., & Adalı, Z. (2017b). Identifying Causality Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Developed Countries. International Business and Accounting Research Journal, 1(2), 71-81.
  • Dinçer, H., Yüksel, S., & Şenel, S. (2018a). Analyzing the Global Risks for the Financial Crisis after the Great Depression Using Comparative Hybrid Hesitant Fuzzy Decision-Making Models: Policy Recommendations for Sustainable Economic Growth. Sustainability, 10(9), 3126.
  • Dinçer, H., Hacıoğlu, Ü., & Yüksel, S. (2018b). Determining Influencing Factors of Currency Exchange Rate for Decision Making in Global Economy Using MARS Method. In Geopolitics and Strategic Management in the Global Economy(pp. 261-273). IGI Global.
  • Dunne, J. P., & Tian, N. (2015). Military expenditure, economic growth and heterogeneity. Defence and Peace Economics, 26(1), 15-31.
  • Égert, B. (2015). Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?. Journal of Macroeconomics, 43, 226-238.
  • Fasanya, I. O., & Olayemi, I. A. (2018). Balance of payment constrained economic growth in Nigeria: How useful is the Thirlwall's hypothesis?. Future Business Journal, 4(1), 121-129.
  • Friedman, J. H. (1991). Multivariate adaptive regression splines. The annals of statistics, 1-67.
  • George, S. (2014). Effect of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) Inflow in Kenya on Economic Growth (GDP), Exports and Balance of Payment (BOP) (Doctoral dissertation, United States International University-Africa).
  • Gokten, S., & Karatepe, S. (2016). Electricity consumption and economic growth: A causality analysis for Turkey in the frame of import-based energy consumption and current account deficit. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 11(4), 385-389.
  • Guttmann, R. (2016). How Credit-money Shapes the Economy: The United States in a Global System: The United States in a Global System. Routledge.
  • Herndon, T., Ash, M., & Pollin, R. (2014). Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff. Cambridge journal of economics, 38(2), 257-279.
  • Ihugba, O. A., & Njoku, A. C. (2017). Social and Community Services Government Expenditure and Nigeria’s Economic Growth. In Advances in Applied Economic Research (pp. 59-71). Springer, Cham.
  • Karahan, Ö., & Çolak, O. (2017). Financial Capital Inflows, Current Account Deficit and Economic Growth in Turkey. European Financial Systems 2017, 300.
  • Kartal, M. T., Depren, S. K., & Depren, Ö. (2018). Türkiye’de Döviz Kurlarini Etkileyen Makroekonomik Göstergelerin Belirlenmesi: Mars Yöntemi İle Bir İnceleme. Kırgızistan-Türkiye Manas Üniversitesi, 7(1), 209-229.
  • Kasman, A., & Duman, Y. S. (2015). CO2 emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: a panel data analysis. Economic Modelling, 44, 97-103.
  • Kempa, B., & Khan, N. S. (2016). Government debt and economic growth in the G7 countries: are there any causal linkages?. Applied Economics Letters, 23(6), 440-443.
  • Kennedy, T., Smyth, R., Valadkhani, A., & Chen, G. (2017). Does income inequality hinder economic growth? New evidence using Australian taxation statistics. Economic Modelling, 65, 119-128.
  • Konuk, F. (2018). Financial and Performance Analysis of Food Companies: Application of TOPSIS and DEA. Kırgızistan-Türkiye Manas Üniversitesi, 7(3), 381-390.
  • Lin, B., & Omoju, O. E. (2017). Does private investment in the transport sector mitigate the environmental impact of urbanisation? Evidence from Asia. Journal of cleaner production, 153, 331-341.
  • Mikucka, M., Sarracino, F., & Dubrow, J. K. (2017). When does economic growth improve life satisfaction? Multilevel analysis of the roles of social trust and income inequality in 46 countries, 1981–2012. World Development, 93, 447-459.
  • Ngare, E., Nyamongo, E. M., & Misati, R. N. (2014). Stock market development and economic growth in Africa. Journal of Economics and Business, 74, 24-39.
  • Odhiambo, N. M. (2015). Government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa: An empirical investigation. Atlantic Economic Journal, 43(3), 393-406.
  • Oishi, S., & Kesebir, S. (2015). Income inequality explains why economic growth does not always translate to an increase in happiness. Psychological science, 26(10), 1630-1638.
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There are 73 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Seçil Şenel Uzunkaya This is me

Hasan Dinçer

Serhat Yüksel 0000-0002-9858-1266

Publication Date January 29, 2019
Submission Date November 2, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2019

Cite

APA Şenel Uzunkaya, S., Dinçer, H., & Yüksel, S. (2019). A Historical Analysis of The Economic Development of The USA (1947-2017). MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 8(1), 209-222. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.477724
AMA Şenel Uzunkaya S, Dinçer H, Yüksel S. A Historical Analysis of The Economic Development of The USA (1947-2017). MJSS. January 2019;8(1):209-222. doi:10.33206/mjss.477724
Chicago Şenel Uzunkaya, Seçil, Hasan Dinçer, and Serhat Yüksel. “A Historical Analysis of The Economic Development of The USA (1947-2017)”. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 8, no. 1 (January 2019): 209-22. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.477724.
EndNote Şenel Uzunkaya S, Dinçer H, Yüksel S (January 1, 2019) A Historical Analysis of The Economic Development of The USA (1947-2017). MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 8 1 209–222.
IEEE S. Şenel Uzunkaya, H. Dinçer, and S. Yüksel, “A Historical Analysis of The Economic Development of The USA (1947-2017)”, MJSS, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 209–222, 2019, doi: 10.33206/mjss.477724.
ISNAD Şenel Uzunkaya, Seçil et al. “A Historical Analysis of The Economic Development of The USA (1947-2017)”. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 8/1 (January 2019), 209-222. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.477724.
JAMA Şenel Uzunkaya S, Dinçer H, Yüksel S. A Historical Analysis of The Economic Development of The USA (1947-2017). MJSS. 2019;8:209–222.
MLA Şenel Uzunkaya, Seçil et al. “A Historical Analysis of The Economic Development of The USA (1947-2017)”. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, vol. 8, no. 1, 2019, pp. 209-22, doi:10.33206/mjss.477724.
Vancouver Şenel Uzunkaya S, Dinçer H, Yüksel S. A Historical Analysis of The Economic Development of The USA (1947-2017). MJSS. 2019;8(1):209-22.

MANAS Journal of Social Studies (MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi)     


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