MIST Ülkelerinde İthalat, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi

Abstract

Ulusal ekonomilerin dışa açık bir uluslararası ticaret politikası benimsemesinin iktisadi büyümelerine olumlu yönde katkıda bulunacağı hipotezi literatürde uzun yıllardır tartışılmakta ve büyük ölçüde kabul görmektedir. Bu bağlamda Meksika, Endonezya, Güney Kore ve Türkiye’den oluşan MIST ülkeleri ele alınmış, her bir ülke için zaman serisi yöntemlerinden Johansen eşbütünleşme ve Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analizleri uygulanarak dış ticaret ile büyüme arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Ampirik bulgulara göre geliri dış ticaretten en çok etkilenen ülke Meksika’dır. Bununla birlikte Meksika, Endonezya ve Türkiye için dış ticarete dayalı büyüme hipotezi geçerlidir.

Keywords

• ihracat,ithalat,iktisadi büyüme

Imports, Exports and Economic Growth in MIST Countries: Toda-Yamamoto Causality Analysis

Abstract

The hypothesis that an open international trade policy will contribute positively to the economic growth of the countries has been discussed and widely accepted in the literature for many years. In this context, the relationship between foreign trade and growth are discussed for the MİST countries consisting of Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey by applying the time series methods which are Johansen co-integration and Toda-Yamamoto causality analyses. According to empirical findings, income of Mexico is the most affected by foreign trade. However, trade-led growth hypothesis is valid for Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey.

Keywords

• Export,Import,Economic Growth

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