Obama Yönetimi’nin Suriye Politikasını Anlamak

Year 2021, , 1436 - 1448, 19.04.2021

Ahmet Ateş

https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.855298

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Başkan Obama’nın Suriye politikası ve Suriye’ye müdahale etmeme kararı ABD’nin siyasi seçkinleri, akademisyenleri ve uzmanları tarafından uzun süredir eleştirilmektedir. Suriye iç savaşına yönelik Amerikan politikasına ilişkin açıklamaların çoğu reel politik argümanlara dayanmaktadır. Bu makalede, Obama’nın Suriye politikasının başka iki yaklaşımla da açıklanabileceğini savunulmaktadır: kitle politikası ve psikolojik ve bilişsel yaklaşımlar. İlgili literatürün ve Başkan Obama'nın röportajlarının ve konuşmalarının kapsamlı bir şekilde incelenmesi sonucu, ABD kamuoyunun Suriye'ye asker göndermeye son derece isteksiz olmasının ve bu konuda etkili bir çıkar grubunun olmamasının, Başkan Obama'nın Suriye'ye müdahale etmemeyi seçmesine yol açtığı görülmüştür. Dahası, Başkan Obama’nın inanç ve tutumlarının da Suriye politikasını belirlemede hayati bir rol oynadığı savunulmaktadır. Yapılan araştırma sonucunda, Obama’nın temel inançlarının ve Libya müdahalesine yönelik algısının Suriye iç savaşına dair olan tutumunu etkilediği görülmüştür. Aynı şekilde Obama’nın Ortadoğu liderlerini, Ortadoğu’dan gelen tehditleri ve Suriye muhalefetini sınıflandırmasını da karar alma sürecini etkilediği görülmüştür. Son olarak, kişisel diplomatik deneyiminin de Suriye politikasının belirlenmesinde rol oynadığı görülmüştür.

Keywords

Suriye, Obama, Dış Politika, Psikolojik açıklamalar

Understanding the Obama Administration’s Syria Policy

Abstract

 President Obama’s Syria policy and his decision not to intervene in Syria had long been criticized by the US political elites, scholars, and pundits. Most of the explanations of the US policy towards the Syrian civil war are based on realpolitik arguments. Realpolitik explanations of foreign policy analysis tend to overlook other key factors that play a vital role in foreign policy decision making processes. Therefore, these studies fail to explain Obama’s Syria policy adequately. This article aims to provide a more comprehensive explanation of Obama’s Syria policy. I argue that Obama’s Syria policy can be better explained by two other approaches: mass politics and psychological and cognitive approaches. After a thorough examination of relevant literature and President Obama’s interviews and speeches, I argue that President Obama chose not to intervene in Syria because US public opinion was extremely reluctant to send US troops to Syria, and there was not an effective interest group that could impact the public opinion and the administration’s policies. Further, President Obama’s beliefs and attitudes also played a vital role in determining his Syria policy. First, Obama’s fundamental beliefs shaped how he approached the Syrian crisis. Then, his interaction with several actors and crises affected his attitude towards Syria and how the situation should be handled. His speeches and interviews show that Libyan intervention affected his perceptions. Therefore, he did not implement the same option in the Syrian case. Likewise, Obama’s categorization of the Middle East leaders and threats affected his Syria policy. Last but not least, diplomatic encounters and his personal experience also played a role in determining his Syria policy.

Keywords

Syria, Obama, Foreign Policy, Psychological explanations

References

• Aaronson, M. (2013). Interventionism in US foreign policy from Bush to Obama. In Obama's Foreign Policy (pp. 134-148). Routledge.
• Bajevich, A. J. (7th December, 2016). Barack Obama’s Crash Course in Foreign Policy. The Nation. Retrieved from. https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/barack-obamas-crash-course-in-foreign-policy/ Access: 06/01/2021
• Ball, J. (August 21, 2012). Obama issues Syria a ‘red line’ warning on chemical weapons. The Washington Post. Retrieved from. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-issues-syria-red-line-warning-on-chemical-weapons/2012/08/20/ba5d26ec-eaf7-11e1-b811-09036bcb182b_story.html Access: 06/01/2021
• Berinsky, A. J. (2001, April). Public Opinion During the Vietnam War: A Revised Measure of the Public Will. In Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association.
• Berinsky, A. J. (2008). Assuming the costs of war: Events, elites, and American public support for military conflict. The Journal of Politics, 69(4), 975-997.
• Clement, S. (7th April, 2017). Americans hated the idea of strikes against Syria in 2013. But Trump’s could be different. The Washington Post. Retrieved from. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/04/07/military-strikes-in-syria-were-very-unpopular-four-years-ago-but-trumps-could-be-different/ Access: 06/01/2021
• Greenberg, D. (29th December, 2016). Syria will stain Obama’s legacy forever. Foreign Policy. Retrieved from. https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/12/29/obama-never-understood-how-history-works/ Access: 06/01/2021
• Guiora, A. N. (2011). Intervention in libya, yes; intervention in syria, no: Deciphering the obama administration. Case W. Res. J. Int'l L., 44, 251.
• Haney, P. J., & Vanderbush, W. (1999). The role of ethnic interest groups in US foreign policy: the case of the Cuban American National Foundation. International Studies Quarterly, 43(2), 341-361.
• Hardman, I. (6th September, 2013). Barack Obama and public opinion on Syria. The Spectator.
• Hinnebusch, R., Kabalan, M. J., Kodmani, B., & Lesch, D. (2010). Syrian Foreign Policy and the United States: From Bush to Obama. Syria Studies, 2(1), 1-58.
• Holland, E. C. (2011). Barack Obama's foreign policy, just war, and the irony of political geography. Political Geography, 2(30), 59-60.
• Indyk, M. S., Lieberthal, K. G., & O'Hanlon, M. E. (2012). Scoring Obama's foreign policy: A progressive pragmatist tries to bend history. Foreign Affairs, 29-43.
• Jentleson, B. W., & Britton, R. L. (1998). Still pretty prudent: Post-cold war American public opinion on the use of military force. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 42(4), 395-417.
• Kanat, K. B. (2016). A Tale of Four Augusts: Obama's Syria Policy (Vol. 7). The SETA Foundation at Washington, DC.
• Krieg, A. (2016). Externalizing the burden of war: the Obama Doctrine and US foreign policy in the Middle East. International Affairs, 92(1), 97-113.
• Larson, D. W. (1989). Origins of containment: A psychological explanation. Princeton University Press.
• Mearsheimer, J. J., & Walt, S. M. (2006). The Israel lobby and US foreign policy. Middle East Policy, 13(3), 29-87.
• Pavgi, K. (17th November, 2011). Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy. Foreign Policy. Retrieved from. https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/11/17/barack-obamas-foreign-policy/ Access: 06/01/2021
• Risse-Kappen, T. (1991). Public opinion, domestic structure, and foreign policy in liberal democracies. World Politics, 43(4), 479-512.
• Sharp, J. M., & Blanchard, C. M. (2012, May). Syria: unrest and US Policy. In Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report for the Congress.
• The US Congress. (2013-2014). S.J.Res.21 - Authorization for the Use of Military Force Against the Government of Syria to Respond to Use of Chemical Weapons
• Titus, A. (14th March, 2018). Obama Owns the Syria Crisis. National Review. Retrieved from. https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/03/syria-crisis-obama-foreign-policy-disaster/ Access: 06/01/2021
• Weiss, M. (2nd January, 2014). The Unraveling: How Obama’s Syria Policy Fell Apart. Politico. Retrieved from. https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/how-obamas-syria-policy-fell-apart-101704 Access: 06/01/2021
• Wyne, A. (6th February, 2017). President Obama’s Foreign Policy Legacy. Kennedy School Review. Retrieved from. https://ksr.hkspublications.org/tag/president-obama/ Access: 06/01/2021
• Zisser, E. (2013). The Failure of US Policy toward Damascus. Middle East Quarterly, 59-65.