Obama Yönetimi’nin Suriye Politikasını Anlamak

Öz

Başkan Obama’nın Suriye politikası ve Suriye’ye müdahale etmeme kararı ABD’nin siyasi seçkinleri, akademisyenleri ve uzmanları tarafından uzun süredir eleştirilmektedir. Suriye iç savaşına yönelik Amerikan politikasına ilişkin açıklamaların çoğu reel politik argümanlara dayanmaktadır. Bu makalede, Obama’nın Suriye politikasının başka iki yaklaşımla da açıklanabileceğini savunulmaktadır: kitle politikası ve psikolojik ve bilişsel yaklaşımlar. İlgili literatürün ve Başkan Obama'nın röportajlarının ve konuşmalarının kapsamlı bir şekilde incelenmesi sonucu, ABD kamuoyunun Suriye'ye asker göndermeye son derece isteksiz olmasının ve bu konuda etkili bir çıkar grubunun olmamasının, Başkan Obama'nın Suriye'ye müdahale etmemeyi seçmesine yol açtığı görülmüştür. Dahası, Başkan Obama’nın inanç ve tutumlarının da Suriye politikasını belirlemede hayati bir rol oynadığı savunulmaktadır. Yapılan araştırma sonucunda, Obama’nın temel inançlarının ve Libya müdahalesine yönelik algısının Suriye iç savaşına dair olan tutumunu etkilediği görülmüştür. Aynı şekilde Obama’nın Ortadoğu liderlerini, Ortadoğu’dan gelen tehditleri ve Suriye muhalefetini sınıflandırmasını da karar alma sürecini etkilediği görülmüştür. Son olarak, kişisel diplomatik deneyiminin de Suriye politikasının belirlenmesinde rol oynadığı görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Suriye
• Obama
• Dış Politika
• Psikolojik açıklamalar

Understanding the Obama Administration’s Syria Policy

Öz

 President Obama’s Syria policy and his decision not to intervene in Syria had long been criticized by the US political elites, scholars, and pundits. Most of the explanations of the US policy towards the Syrian civil war are based on realpolitik arguments. Realpolitik explanations of foreign policy analysis tend to overlook other key factors that play a vital role in foreign policy decision making processes. Therefore, these studies fail to explain Obama’s Syria policy adequately. This article aims to provide a more comprehensive explanation of Obama’s Syria policy. I argue that Obama’s Syria policy can be better explained by two other approaches: mass politics and psychological and cognitive approaches. After a thorough examination of relevant literature and President Obama’s interviews and speeches, I argue that President Obama chose not to intervene in Syria because US public opinion was extremely reluctant to send US troops to Syria, and there was not an effective interest group that could impact the public opinion and the administration’s policies. Further, President Obama’s beliefs and attitudes also played a vital role in determining his Syria policy. First, Obama’s fundamental beliefs shaped how he approached the Syrian crisis. Then, his interaction with several actors and crises affected his attitude towards Syria and how the situation should be handled. His speeches and interviews show that Libyan intervention affected his perceptions. Therefore, he did not implement the same option in the Syrian case. Likewise, Obama’s categorization of the Middle East leaders and threats affected his Syria policy. Last but not least, diplomatic encounters and his personal experience also played a role in determining his Syria policy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Syria
• Obama
• Foreign Policy
• Psychological explanations

Kaynakça

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