The Fiscal Impact of Brain Drain in Türkiye and a Compensatory Tax Mechanism: An Assessment of the Bhagwati Tax

Abstract

Brain drain–the international migration of highly educated individuals–imposes not only demographic and social challenges but also significant economic consequences for developing countries. In particular, it results in substantial fiscal losses when publicly funded human capital is transferred abroad. This study estimates the fiscal burden of brain drain in Türkiye by calculating the public cost of university graduate emigration between 2015 and 2023. Using data from the Council of Higher Education, Turkish Statistical Institute, and education expenditure statistics, the analysis links emigration rates to per–student public spending. Results show that the number of emigrated graduates exceeded 146.000 during this period, leading to a cumulative public cost of over 4.6 billion Turkish Liras, which corresponds to approximately 511 million dollars. The study discusses these losses in the context of the Bhagwati Tax, a proposed compensatory tax on skilled emigrants. While the tax offers a normative framework, its implementation is limited by legal and political barriers. As an alternative, the study proposes a voluntary, earmarked diaspora fund, remittance-linked and return incentives, and institutionalised knowledge-and-innovation compacts with the diaspora. This research provides one of the first systematic estimates of the brain drain's fiscal cost in Türkiye and contributes to discussions on equitable responses to skilled migration.

Keywords

• Brain Drain
• Fiscal Cost
• Bhagwati Tax
• Skilled Labour

Türkiye’deki Beyin Göçünün Kamu Maliyesine Etkisi ve Telafi Edici Vergi Uygulaması: Bhagwati Vergisi Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme

Abstract

Beyin göçü yüksek öğretimli bireylerin uluslararası düzeyde göçü–gelişmekte olan ülkeler açısından yalnızca demografik ve sosyal değil aynı zamanda önemli ekonomik sonuçlar da doğurmaktadır. Özellikle, kamu kaynaklarıyla finanse edilen beşeri sermayenin yurt dışına transferi, ciddi mali kayıplara yol açmaktadır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de beyin göçünün kamu maliyesi üzerindeki yükünü, 2015–2023 yılları arasında üniversite mezunlarının yurt dışına göçü üzerinden hesaplamayı amaçlamaktadır. Yükseköğretim Kurulu, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu ve eğitim harcamaları istatistiklerinden elde edilen veriler doğrultusunda, beyin göçü oranları kişi başına kamu eğitim harcamalarıyla ilişkilendirilerek mali kayıp tahmin edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, bu dönemde yurt dışına göç eden mezun sayısının 146.000’i aştığını ve bunun toplam kamuya maliyetinin 4.6 milyar Türk lirasını geçtiğini; bu tutarın yaklaşık 511 milyon ABD dolarına karşılık geldiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışma, söz konusu kayıpları nitelikli göçmenlere yönelik önerilen telafi edici bir vergi mekanizması olan Bhagwati Vergisi çerçevesinde değerlendirmektedir. Bu verginin normatif bir yaklaşım sunduğu kabul edilse de yasal ve politik kısıtlar nedeniyle uygulanabilirliğinin sınırlı olduğu vurgulanmaktadır. Alternatif olarak, çalışma gönüllülük esaslı ve amaç tahsisli bir diaspora fonunu, havalelere bağlı ve geri dönüşü ödüllendirici teşvikleri ve diaspora ile bilgi ve inovasyona yönelik kurumsal mutabakatları önermektedir. Çalışma, Türkiye bağlamında beyin göçünün maliyetine dair ilk sistematik tahminlerden birini sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Bhagwati Vergisi
• Mali Yük
• Beyin Göçü
• Nitelikli İşgücü

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