The Fiscal Impact of Brain Drain in Türkiye and a Compensatory Tax Mechanism: An Assessment of the Bhagwati Tax

Yıl 2026, Sayı: 109, 1 - 22, 02.01.2026

İbrahim Ethem Akyıldız

https://doi.org/10.25095/mufad.1694515

Öz

Brain drain–the international migration of highly educated individuals–imposes not only demographic and social challenges but also significant economic consequences for developing countries. In particular, it results in substantial fiscal losses when publicly funded human capital is transferred abroad. This study estimates the fiscal burden of brain drain in Türkiye by calculating the public cost of university graduate emigration between 2015 and 2023. Using data from the Council of Higher Education, Turkish Statistical Institute, and education expenditure statistics, the analysis links emigration rates to per–student public spending. Results show that the number of emigrated graduates exceeded 146.000 during this period, leading to a cumulative public cost of over 4.6 billion Turkish Liras, which corresponds to approximately 511 million dollars. The study discusses these losses in the context of the Bhagwati Tax, a proposed compensatory tax on skilled emigrants. While the tax offers a normative framework, its implementation is limited by legal and political barriers. As an alternative, the study proposes a voluntary, earmarked diaspora fund, remittance-linked and return incentives, and institutionalised knowledge-and-innovation compacts with the diaspora. This research provides one of the first systematic estimates of the brain drain's fiscal cost in Türkiye and contributes to discussions on equitable responses to skilled migration.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Brain Drain , Fiscal Cost , Bhagwati Tax , Skilled Labour

Türkiye’deki Beyin Göçünün Kamu Maliyesine Etkisi ve Telafi Edici Vergi Uygulaması: Bhagwati Vergisi Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme

Öz

Beyin göçü yüksek öğretimli bireylerin uluslararası düzeyde göçü–gelişmekte olan ülkeler açısından yalnızca demografik ve sosyal değil aynı zamanda önemli ekonomik sonuçlar da doğurmaktadır. Özellikle, kamu kaynaklarıyla finanse edilen beşeri sermayenin yurt dışına transferi, ciddi mali kayıplara yol açmaktadır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de beyin göçünün kamu maliyesi üzerindeki yükünü, 2015–2023 yılları arasında üniversite mezunlarının yurt dışına göçü üzerinden hesaplamayı amaçlamaktadır. Yükseköğretim Kurulu, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu ve eğitim harcamaları istatistiklerinden elde edilen veriler doğrultusunda, beyin göçü oranları kişi başına kamu eğitim harcamalarıyla ilişkilendirilerek mali kayıp tahmin edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, bu dönemde yurt dışına göç eden mezun sayısının 146.000’i aştığını ve bunun toplam kamuya maliyetinin 4.6 milyar Türk lirasını geçtiğini; bu tutarın yaklaşık 511 milyon ABD dolarına karşılık geldiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışma, söz konusu kayıpları nitelikli göçmenlere yönelik önerilen telafi edici bir vergi mekanizması olan Bhagwati Vergisi çerçevesinde değerlendirmektedir. Bu verginin normatif bir yaklaşım sunduğu kabul edilse de yasal ve politik kısıtlar nedeniyle uygulanabilirliğinin sınırlı olduğu vurgulanmaktadır. Alternatif olarak, çalışma gönüllülük esaslı ve amaç tahsisli bir diaspora fonunu, havalelere bağlı ve geri dönüşü ödüllendirici teşvikleri ve diaspora ile bilgi ve inovasyona yönelik kurumsal mutabakatları önermektedir. Çalışma, Türkiye bağlamında beyin göçünün maliyetine dair ilk sistematik tahminlerden birini sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bhagwati Vergisi , Mali Yük , Beyin Göçü , Nitelikli İşgücü

Kaynakça

• Akçiğit, U.- Koç, Ç. - Parmar, S.- Pearce, J.- Saygın, Z. B. - Shim, Y.– Taşpınar, N.- Tokmakoğlu, D. (2023). “Türkiye akademik diaspora raporu: Beyin göçünden beyin gücüne”. Türkiye Bilişim Vakfı, 1-80. https://www.tbv.org.tr/Content/userfiles/files/Diaspora_Raporu.pdf (21.06.2025).
• Arıkan, Z.- İnneci, A. (2023). “Seçilmiş Avrupa Ülkelerinin Beyin Göçüne Yönelik Vergi Politikası Tercihleri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme”. International Journal of Public Finance, 8(2), 313-332. https://doi.org/10.30927/ijpf.1377280
• Bassetto, J.- Ippedico, G. (2023). “Can tax incentives bring brains back? Returnees tax schemes and high-skilled migration in Italy.”, CESifo Working Paper No. 10271, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4359376 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4359376
• Batista, C - Han, D.- Haushofer, J.- Khanna, G.- McKenzie, D.- Mobarak, A. M., ... - Yang, D. (2025). “Brain drain or brain gain? Effects of high-skilled international emigration on origin countries.”, Science, 388(6749), eadr8861.
• Bhagwati, J.- Dellalfar, W. (1973). “The brain drain and income taxation.”, World Development, 1(1-2), 94-101.
• Bhagwati, J.- Hamada, K. (1974). “The brain drain, international integration of markets for professionals and unemployment: a theoretical analysis”, Journal of Development Economics, 1(1), 19-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(74)90020-0
• Bhagwati, J. (1972). “The United States in the Nixon era: The end of innocence”, Daedalus, 25-47.
• Bhagwati, J. N. (1976). “Taxing the brain drain. Challenge”, 19(3), 34-38. https://doi.org/10.1080/05775132.1976.11470220
• Brauner, Y. (2010). “Brain Drain Taxation as Development Policy”, Louis ULJ, 55, 221.
• Carare, M. A.- Baratas, A. F.- Kilembe, J.- Hadzi-Vaskov, M.- Zhang, W. (2024). “The Joint Effect of Emigration and Remittances on Economic Growth and Labor Force Participation in Latin America and the Caribbean”, International Monetary Fund.
• Clemens, M. A. (2014). “A case against taxes and quotas on high-skill emigration”, Journal of Globalization and Development, 5(1), 1-39. DOI: doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2014-0015
• Docquier, F.- Rapoport, H. (2012). “Globalization, brain drain, and development. Journal of economic literature”, 50(3), 681-730. DOI: 10.1257/jel.50.3.681
• Docquier, F.- Veljanoska, S. (2022). “Brain Drain or Gain”, Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics, 1-27.
• Docquier, F. (2014). “The brain drain from developing countries: The brain drain produces many more losers than winners in developing countries”, IZA World of Labor, 31, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.15185/izawol.31
• Dumitru, S. (2012). “Skilled Migration: Who should pay for what? A critique of the Bhagwati tax. A Critique of the Bhagwati Tax” (November 12, 2012). Diversities, 14(1), 9-23.
• Gadžo, S. (2019). “Using tax policy to address brain drain and depopulation: the case of Croatia”, Анали Правног факултета у Београду, 67(4), 116-146.
• Gibson, J.- McKenzie, D. (2012). “The economic consequences of ‘brain drain’of the best and brightest: Microeconomic evidence from five countries”, The Economic Journal, 122(560), 339-375.
• Krasikov, A. (2007). “Declassified KGB Study Illuminates Early Years of Soviet Jewish Emigration”, https://forward.com/news/12254/declassified-kgb-study-illuminates-early-years-of-00966/ (16.09.2025).
• Kristiaji, B. B. (2019). “Tax and brain drain: Justification, policy options and prospect for large developing economies”, Анали Правног факултета у Београду, 67(4), 17-67.
• Lister, M. (2017). “A tax-credit approach to addressing brain drain”, Louis ULJ, 62, 73.
• Moreno, A. B.- López, H. L. (2019). Brain drain tax vs. brain gain benefits: general thoughts from a Spanish perspective. Anali Pravnog fakulteta u Beogradu-Časopis za pravne i društvene nauke, 67(4).
• OECD (2023). “International Migration Outlook 2023”, https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/international-migration-outlook-2024_50b0353e-en.html (06.05.2025).
• OECD (2024). “International Migration Outlook 2024”, https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/international-migration-outlook-2024_50b0353e-en/full-report/turkiye_e05e2874.html (04.05.2025).
• Sager, A. (2014). “Reframing the brain drain. Critical Review of International Social and Political Philosophy”, 17(5), 560-579. https://doi.org/10.1080/13698230.2014.919061
• Scalera, D. (2012). “Skilled migration and education policies: Is there still scope for a Bhagwati tax?”, The Manchester School, 80(4), 447-467. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2011.02256.x
• Schiff, M. (2018). “Brain Drain-Induced Brain Gain and the Bhagwati Tax: Are Early and Recent Paradigms Compatible? (No. 262). GLO Discussion Paper. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/183209/1/GLO-DP-0262.pdf (04.05.2025).
• Shimada, A. (2019). The education policy challenge to the brain drain problem. International Journal of Education Economics and Development, 10(4), 335-355. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJEED.2019.102740
• Srivastava, B. (2018). Economic impact of brain drain in developed and developing countries. New Jersey, USA: William Paterson University.
• Stevenson, A. (2016). Recovering lost tax revenue through taxation of transnational households. Berkeley J. Int'l L., 34, 100.
• Turkstat (2024a). “Higher Education Brain Drain Statistics, 2021-2023”, https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Higher-Education-Brain-Drain-Statistics-2021-2023-53839&dil=2 (03.05.2025).
• Turkstat (2024b). “Education Expenditure Statistics, 2023”, https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Egitim-Harcamalari-Istatistikleri-2023-53557 (03.05.2025).
• United Nations (2025). “International Migrant Stock 2024”, https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/undesa_pd_2025_intlmigstock_2024_key_facts_and_figures_advance-unedited.pdf (05.05.2024).
• Volacu, A. - Terteleac, V. (2021). “Mitigating the costs of departure. Brain drain, disadvantage and fair burden-sharing”, Ethics & Global Politics, 14(3). https://doi.org/10.1080/16544951.2021.1958508
• Wilson, J. D. (2007). “Taxing the brain drain: A reassessment of the Bhagwati proposal. In Trade, globalization and poverty”, Routledge, 270-278
• Yavan, S. (2022). “Bhagwati Tarafından Önerilen Beyin Göçü Vergisinin Uygulanabilirliğinin Analizi”, Sosyoekonomi, 30(51), 511-536. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.25
• Yüksek Öğretim Bilgi Sistemi (2025). ”Yükseköğretim istatistikleri”, https://istatistik.yok.gov.tr/ (03.05.2025).