Banka Dijitalleşmesi ile Performans Arasındaki Kısa ve Uzun Dönemli Etkiler: Panel Fourier Nedensellik ve CS-ARDL Bulguları

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren 20 mevduat bankasında dijitalleşme ile banka kârlılığı, istikrarı ve riskliliği arasındaki nedenselliği ve bu nedenselliğin yönünü araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla çalışmada 2010-2024 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak panel Fourier Granger nedensellik ve panel Fourier Toda–Yamamoto nedensellik testleri uygulanmıştır. Ayrıca yatay kesit genişletilmiş ve yaygın şokları dikkate alan CS–ARDL (Cross-Sectionally Augmented AutoRegressive Distributed Lag) modeli ile de kısa ve uzun dönem katsayıları tahmin edilmiştir. Nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye’deki aktif internet bankacılığı müşteri sayısından bankaların aktif kârlılığı ile net faiz marjı değişkenlerine ve maddi olmayan duran varlıkların kendi içindeki değişiminden bankaların aktif kalitesine doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. CS-ARDL sonuçlarına göre ise dijital dönüşüm bankaların performanslarını kısa dönemde pozitif yönde etkilerken, uzun dönemde anlamlı bir etkinin olmadığı görülmüştür. Tüm bu bulgular, dijitalleşme göstergelerinin etkilerinin kullanılan göstergeye ve döneme göre farklılaştığını ve etkilerin ağırlıklı olarak kısa dönemde ortaya çıktığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Dijitalleşme
• Kârlılık
• İstikrar
• Risk
• Panel Fourier Causality
• CS-ARDL Tahmincisi

Short-Term and Long-Term Effects Between Bank Digitalization and Performance: Panel Fourier Causality and CS-ARDL Findings

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the causality and direction of this causality between digitalization and bank profitability, stability, and riskiness across 20 deposit banks operating in Türkiye. For this purpose, panel Fourier Granger causality and panel Fourier Toda–Yamamoto causality tests were conducted using annual data for period 2010–2024. Furthermore, short- and long-term coefficients were estimated using CS–ARDL (Cross-Sectionally Augmented AutoRegressive Distributed Lag) estimator, which incorporates an expanded cross-section and common shocks. The analysis findings reveal that digitalization has positive effects on bank profitability, stability, and riskiness. According to the causality test results, unidirectional causality was identified, running from the number of active internet banking customers in Türkiye to banks' asset profitability and net interest margin variables, and from changes in intangible assets to banks' asset quality. For all other variables, a bidirectional causal relationship was found. According to the CS-ARDL results, digital transformation positively impacted bank performance in the short term, but had no significant long-term impact.

Keywords

• Digitalization
• Profitability
• Stability
• Risk
• Panel Fourier Causality
• CS-ARDL Estimator

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