Finansal Küreselleşme ve Ekonomik Büyüme

Abstract

Bu çalışma, finansal küreselleşme ve sermaye hesabı serbestleşmesinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini teorik ve ampirik literatür ışığında incelemektedir. Neoklasik teori, serbest sermaye akışlarının yatırımları artıracağını öngörse de, ampirik bulgular genel serbestleşmenin doğrudan büyüme etkilerinin zayıf olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna karşılık, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve hisse senedi piyasası liberalizasyonunun büyümeye net pozitif etkileri vardır. “Yeniden Değerlendirme” paradigmasına göre finansal küreselleşmenin asıl faydası, sermaye birikiminden ziyade kurumsal kalite ve finansal derinlik gibi Toplam Faktör Verimliliğini artıran dolaylı faydalar oluşturmasıdır. Ancak bu faydaların gerçekleşmesi, ülkelerin belirli finansal ve kurumsal eşikleri aşmasına bağlıdır. Aksi halde ani sermaye çıkışları ve krizler yaşanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada ayrıca, kontrolsüz sermaye girişlerinin reel döviz kurunu aşırı değerlendirerek rekabet gücüne zarar verdiği ve “asli günah” gibi dış borçlanma kaynaklı yapısal kırılganlıkların sürdüğü eleştirileri tartışılmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, finansal entegrasyon sihirli bir değnek veya tek tip bir reçete değildir ancak doğru sıralama, kurumsal reformlar ve tamamlayıcı politikalarla uygulandığında başarılı olabilecek pragmatik bir araçtır.

Keywords

• Finansal Küreselleşme
• Sermaye Hesabı Serbestleşmesi
• Ekonomik Büyüme

Financial Globalization and Economic Growth

Abstract

This study examines the effects of financial globalization and capital account liberalization on economic growth in light of theoretical and empirical literature. Although neoclassical theory predicts that free capital flows will increase investments, empirical findings indicate that the direct growth effects of broad liberalization are weak. In contrast, foreign direct investments and equity market liberalization have clear positive effects on growth. According to the "Reappraisal" paradigm, the main benefit of financial globalization is not direct capital accumulation, but rather the generation of indirect benefits such as institutional quality and financial depth that boost Total Factor Productivity. However, the realization of these benefits depends strictly on countries surpassing certain financial and institutional thresholds. Otherwise, sudden capital outflows and crises occur. The article also discusses the criticisms that uncontrolled capital inflows harm competitiveness by overvaluing the real exchange rate, and that structural vulnerabilities stemming from external borrowing, such as "original sin", persist. Ultimately, financial integration is not a magic wand or a one-size-fits-all prescription, but a pragmatic tool that can be successful when implemented with proper sequencing, institutional reforms, and complementary policies.

Keywords

• Financial Globalization
• Capital Account Liberalization
• Economic Growth

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