Turizm ve Gelir Dağılımı Arasındaki İlişki: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Öz

Turizm çok yönlü dinamikleri sayesinde çeşitli bölgelerde gelir üretimini etkileyen, küresel çapta önemli bir ekonomik itici güçtür. Fakat turizm harcamalarındaki büyümenin gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkisi ise akademik yazında tartışılan bir konu olmuştur. Bu çalışmanın amacı turizm faaliyetlerinin gelir eşitsizliği üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Çalışma, 2014-2024 yılları arasında Türkiye’deki 26 Bölge (İstatistiki Bölge Birimleri Sınıflaması [İBBS, 2. Düzey]) örneklemini yatay kesit bağımlılığı, homojenlik testi ve nedensellik analizi yöntemleriyle incelemiştir. Veri seti, turist sayısı, GINI katsayısı ve yoksulluk oranı değişkenlerinden oluşmaktadır. Analizden elde edilen bulgular, modelde yer alan değişkenlerin ülke bazında nedensellik ilişkisini reddederken bazı bölgelerde nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğuna dair kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Çalışmanın özgün yanı, Türkiye için yapılan çalışmaların çoğunlukla zaman serisi analizlerine dayanmasına karşın bu çalışmada panel veri analizi yapılarak daha fazla gözlem ve daha güçlü istatistiksel çıktılar ortaya konmuştur. Elde edilen bulgular bölgesel ve ulusal politika yapıcılar açısından önem arz etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Turizm
• Gelir dağılım
• Eşbütünleşme analizi

The Relationship Between Tourism and Income Distribution: An Econometric Analysis

Abstract

Tourism is an important global economic driver, affecting income generation in various regions through its multifaceted dynamics. However, the impact of growth in tourism expenditure on income distribution has been a topic of debate in academic literature. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of tourism activities on income inequality. The study analyzes a sample of 26 regions in Türkiye (Classification of Statistical Regions [SR, Level 2]) for the period 2014-2024 using cross-sectional dependency, homogeneity test and causality analysis methods. The data set consists of the number of tourists, GINI coefficient, and poverty rate. The findings obtained from the analysis reject causal relationships on a country basis for the variables included in the model, while presenting results regarding causal relationships in some regions. The study is notable in that, unlike most previous research on Turkey, which relies on time series analysis, it adopts a panel data approach, allowing for more observations and statistically robust conclusions. These findings hold valuable implications for both regional and national policymakers.

Keywords

• Tourism
• Income Distribution
• Cointegration Analysis

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