Turizm ve Gelir Dağılımı Arasındaki İlişki: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Öz

Turizm çok yönlü dinamikleri sayesinde çeşitli bölgelerde gelir üretimini etkileyen, küresel çapta önemli bir ekonomik itici güçtür. Fakat turizm harcamalarındaki büyümenin gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkisi ise akademik yazında tartışılan bir konu olmuştur. Bu çalışmanın amacı turizm faaliyetlerinin gelir eşitsizliği üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Çalışma, 2014-2024 yılları arasında Türkiye’deki 26 Bölge (İstatistiki Bölge Birimleri Sınıflaması [İBBS, 2. Düzey]) örneklemini yatay kesit bağımlılığı, homojenlik testi ve nedensellik analizi yöntemleriyle incelemiştir. Veri seti, turist sayısı, GINI katsayısı ve yoksulluk oranı değişkenlerinden oluşmaktadır. Analizden elde edilen bulgular, modelde yer alan değişkenlerin ülke bazında nedensellik ilişkisini reddederken bazı bölgelerde nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğuna dair kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Çalışmanın özgün yanı, Türkiye için yapılan çalışmaların çoğunlukla zaman serisi analizlerine dayanmasına karşın bu çalışmada panel veri analizi yapılarak daha fazla gözlem ve daha güçlü istatistiksel çıktılar ortaya konmuştur. Elde edilen bulgular bölgesel ve ulusal politika yapıcılar açısından önem arz etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Turizm
• Gelir dağılım
• Eşbütünleşme analizi

The Relationship Between Tourism and Income Distribution: An Econometric Analysis

Abstract

Tourism is an important global economic driver, affecting income generation in various regions through its multifaceted dynamics. However, the impact of growth in tourism expenditure on income distribution has been a topic of debate in academic literature. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of tourism activities on income inequality. The study analyzes a sample of 26 regions in Türkiye (Classification of Statistical Regions [SR, Level 2]) for the period 2014-2024 using cross-sectional dependency, homogeneity test and causality analysis methods. The data set consists of the number of tourists, GINI coefficient, and poverty rate. The findings obtained from the analysis reject causal relationships on a country basis for the variables included in the model, while presenting results regarding causal relationships in some regions. The study is notable in that, unlike most previous research on Turkey, which relies on time series analysis, it adopts a panel data approach, allowing for more observations and statistically robust conclusions. These findings hold valuable implications for both regional and national policymakers.

Keywords

• Tourism
• Income Distribution
• Cointegration Analysis

Kaynakça

1. Adeniyi, O., Adekunle, W., Afolabi, J., & Kumeka, T. T. (2024). Tourism-income inequality Nexus in Africa: evidence from SADC countries. Current Issues in Tourism, 27(18), 2899-2917. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2023.2227377
2. Akarsu, G. (2022). Spatial panel data analysis of the relationship between tourism and income inequality. Anatolia, 33(4), 537-549. https://doi.org/10.1080/13032917.2021.1969959
3. Akta¸s, Z., Çimen, A., Kutlu, D., Sarıçoban, K., & Ongun, U. (2024). The Competitiveness of Turkish Tourism in the Global Market. https://doi.org/10.3390/su162411232
4. Alam, Md. S., & Paramati, S. R. (2016a). The impact of tourism on income inequality in developing economies: Does Kuznets curve hypothesis exist? Annals of Tourism Research, 61, 111-126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2016.09.008
5. Alam, Md. S., & Paramati, S. R. (2016b). The impact of tourism on income inequality in developing economies: Does Kuznets curve hypothesis exist? Annals of Tourism Research, 61, 111-126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2016.09.008
6. Alılı, O., Özer, Y., & Erkan, M. (2022). Turizm ve Gelir Eşitsizliği İlişkisinde Kuznets Eğrisi Hipotezinin Geçerliliği. Sosyoekonomi, 30(51), 301-318. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.15
7. Bahar, O., & Kozak, M. (2007). Advancing Destination Competitiveness Research. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 22(2), 61-71. https://doi.org/10.1300/J073V22N02_05
8. Barrientos-Báez, A., Caldevilla Domínguez, D., & Santos, E. (2024). Sustainable Tourism Dynamics: Understanding the Impact of Tourist Stays on Regional Revenue and Development. Sustainability 2024, Vol. 16, Page 8403, 16(19), 8403. https://doi.org/10.3390/SU16198403

9. Berbeka, K., Alejziak, W., & Berbeka, J. (2024). Sustainable development goals of Agenda 2030 in the declarations and aims of international tourism organisations. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 41(1), 142-153. https://doi.org/10.1080/10548408.2023.2239862
10. Blake, A. (2008). Tourism and income distribution in East Africa. International Journal of Tourism Research, 10(6), 511-524. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.702
11. Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
12. Bui Hoang, N. (2024). Do positive and negative shocks of tourism development affect income inequality in a developed country? PLOS ONE, 19(4), e0301628. https://doi.org/10.1371/JOURNAL.PONE.0301628
13. Camacho, M., & Ramos-Herrera, M. del C. (2024). Does tourism reduce income inequality? https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166241262349. https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166241262349
14. Carrascal Incera, A., & Fernández, M. F. (2015). Tourism and income distribution: Evidence from a developed regional economy. Tourism Management, 48, 11-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.TOURMAN.2014.10.016
15. Carrascal Incera, A., & Fernández, M. F. (2015). Tourism and income distribution: Evidence from a developed regional economy. Tourism Management, 48, 11-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2014.10.016
16. Chi, J. (2021). Revisiting the tourism-inequality nexus: evidence from a panel of developed and developing economies. Current Issues in Tourism, 24(6), 755-767. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2020.1743243 Chiu, Y. Bin, & Wang, Z. (2023). Inbound tourism and income inequality: the role of banking sector development. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 31(9), 2080-2099. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2022.2108820
17. Croes, R., & Rivera, M. A. (2017). Tourism’s potential to benefit the poor. Tourism Economics, 23(1), 29-48. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2015.0495
18. Dossou, T. A. M., Kambaye, E. N., Berhe, M. W., & Alinsato, A. S. (2023a). Toward efforts to lessen income inequality in Asia: Exploring synergies between tourism and governance quality. Tourism Management Perspectives, 46, 101086. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2023.101086
19. Dossou, T. A. M., Kambaye, E. N., Berhe, M. W., & Alinsato, A. S. (2023b). Toward efforts to lessen income inequality in Asia: Exploring synergies between tourism and governance quality. Tourism Management Perspectives, 46, 101086. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2023.101086
20. Earl, A., & Hall, C. M. (2021). Institutional Theory in Tourism and Hospitality. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003051206
21. Emirmahmutoglu, F., & Kose, N. (2011). Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 870-876. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.10.018
22. Fernández, H., Picazo, P., & Moreno Gil, S. (2024). The Pathway to Sustainability in a Mass Tourism Destination: The Case of Lanzarote. Sustainability, 16(12), 5253. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16125253
23. Gao, J., Sakcharoen, T., Suwanteep, K., & Niyommaneerat, W. (2024). Stakeholder Perceptions of Sustainable Tourism Development: A Case Study in Haikou, China. Sustainability, 16(16), 6742. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16166742
24. Ghosh, S., & Mitra, S. K. (2021). Tourism and inequality: A relook on the Kuznets curve. Tourism Management, 83, 104255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2020.104255
25. Goh, C., Li, H., & Zhang, Q. (2015). Achieving Balanced Regional Development in China: Is Domestic or International Tourism More Efficacious? Tourism Economics, 21(2), 369-386. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2013.0353
26. Hashem Pesaran, M., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010 Jiaqun, W., Jotham, K., Dossou, T. A. M., Alinsato, A. S., & Asongu, S. A. (2024). Tourism and income inequality in sub-Saharan African countries: the role of democracy. Current Issues in Tourism, 27(18), 2878-2898. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2024.2321336
27. Kaur, P., Stoltzfus, J., & Yellapu, V. (2018). Descriptive statistics. International Journal of Academic Medicine, 4(1), 60. https://doi.org/10.4103/IJAM.IJAM_7_18
28. Kutta, T., & Dette, H. (2024). Validating approximate slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 246(1-2), 105898. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105898
29. Lee, S. (2009). Income inequality in tourism services-dependent counties. Current Issues in Tourism, 12(1), 33-45. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500802248001
30. Lee, S., & O’Leary, J. T. (2008). Determinants of Income Inequality in U.S. Nonmetropolitan Tourism- and Recreation-Dependent Communities. Journal of Travel Research, 46(4), 456-468. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287507312425
31. Li, H., Chen, J. L., Li, G., & Goh, C. (2016). Tourism and regional income inequality: Evidence from China. Annals of Tourism Research, 58, 81-99. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ANNALS.2016.02.001
32. Mahadevan, R., & Suardi, S. (2019). Panel evidence on the impact of toursim growth on poverty, poverty gap. Current Issues in Tourism, 22, 253-264. https://ro.uow.edu.au/buspapers/1287
33. Nazlioglu, S., Lebe, F., & Kayhan, S. (2011). Nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries: Cross-sectionally dependent heterogeneous panel causality analysis. Energy Policy, 39(10), 6615-6621. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.08.007
34. Nguyen, C. P., Schinckus, C., Su, T. D., & Chong, F. H. L. (2021). The Influence of Tourism on Income Inequality. Journal of Travel Research, 60(7), 1426-1444. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287520954538
35. Oviedo-García, M. Á., González-Rodríguez, M. R., & Vega-Vázquez, M. (2019). Does Sun-and-Sea All-Inclusive Tourism Contribute to Poverty Alleviation and/or Income Inequality Reduction? The Case of the Dominican Republic. Journal of Travel Research, 58(6), 995-1013. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287518789272
36. Pan, X. M., & Dossou, T. A. M. (2020). The relationship between tourism and sustainable economic growth in the Republic of Benin. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(7), 785-794. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1676206 Pérez-Vicente, S., & Expósito Ruiz, M. (2009). Descriptive statistics. Allergologia et Immunopathologia, 37(6), 314-320. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ALLER.2009.10.005
37. Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.572504
38. Raza, S. A., & Shah, N. (2017). Tourism growth and income inequality: does Kuznets Curve hypothesis exist in top tourist arrival countries. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22(8), 874-884. https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2017.1343742
39. Sarafidis, V., Yamagata, T., & Robertson, D. (2009). A test of cross section dependence for a linear dynamic panel model with regressors. Journal of Econometrics, 148(2), 149-161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.10.006
40. Shahbaz, M., Solarin, S. A., Azam, M., & Tiwari, A. K. (2020). Tourism-induced income distribution in Malaysia: a practical experience of a truly Asian economy. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(23), 2910-2929. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1697648
41. Subramaniam, Y., Masron, T. A., & Loganathan, N. (2022). Tourism and income inequality. Journal of Business and Socio-economic Development, 2(2), 181-194. https://doi.org/10.1108/JBSED-07-2021-0102
42. Swamy, P. A. V. B. (1970). Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model. Econometrica, 38(2), 311. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913012
43. Tam, P. S. (2024). Editorial of the special issue on contemporary issues in tourism economics. Economic Modelling, 139, 106822. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECONMOD.2024.106822
44. Truong, V. D., Hall, C. M., & Garry, T. (2014). Tourism and poverty alleviation: perceptions and experiences of poor people in Sapa, Vietnam. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 22(7), 1071-1089. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2013.871019
45. Türkmen, S. (2019). Seçilmiş OECD Ülkelerinde Ar-Ge Ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Panel Eş Bütünleşme Yaklaşımından Yeni Kanıtlar. Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Yönetimi Dergisi. 14(2), 89-101.
46. UNWTO. (2023, Mayıs 12). UNWTO-WHY TOURISM? https://www.unwto.org/why-tourism
47. UNWTO. (2024, Aralık 30). Tourism – an economic and social phenomenon. unwto.
48. Uzar, U., & Eyuboglu, K. (2019). Can tourism be a key sector in reducing income inequality? An empirical investigation for Turkey. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 24(8), 822-838. https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2019.1636105
49. Wang, Y., & Tziamalis, A. (2023). International tourism and income inequality: The role of economic and financial development. Tourism Economics, 29(7), 1836-1864. https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166231177106/ASSET/IMAGES/LARGE/10.1177_13548166231177106-FIG2.JPEG
50. Wienclaw, R. A. (2021). Descriptive Statistics (Sociology). Salem Press Encyclopedia. https://3d43585e923c69c05fe5cddbdcda4e642ae7fbed.vetisonline.com/contentitem/ers:89185422?sid=ebsco:plink:crawler&id=ebsco:ers:89185422&crl=c
51. Xuanming, P., Dossou, T. A. M., Alinsato, A. S., & Asongu, S. A. (2024). Economic freedom, tourism and income inequality in sub-Saharan African economies. Current Issues in Tourism. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2024.2428758
52. Zhang, H., & Yang, Y. (2023). Is tourism growth able to shrink economic inequalities? A DSGE analysis. Annals of Tourism Research Empirical Insights, 4(1), 100089. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ANNALE.2023.100089
53. Zhang, J. (2021). The effects of tourism on income inequality: A meta-analysis of econometrics studies. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 48, 312-321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2021.07.009
54. Zhang, J., & Zhang, Y. (2022). Tourism, transport infrastructure and income inequality: A panel data analysis of China. Current Issues in Tourism, 25(10), 1607-1626. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2021.1928012