ABD’nin 2025 Ulusal Güvenlik Stratejisi ve Küresel Sistem Algısındaki Dönüşüm

Abstract

Bu çalışma, uluslararası sistemin yapısına ilişkin tartışmaların ABD’nin 2025 Ulusal Güvenlik Stratejisi Belgesi’nde nasıl çerçevelendirildiği sorunsalı etrafında şekillenmektedir. Araştırmanın temel amacı, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin (ABD) 2025 Ulusal Güvenlik Stratejisi Belgesi’nin uluslararası sistemdeki güç dağılımını ve ABD’nin küresel rolünü nasıl tanımladığını ortaya koymaktır. Çalışma, nitel araştırma yöntemlerinden içerik analizine dayanmakta olup söz konusu belge hegemonya anlayışı, büyük güç rekabeti, müttefiklik yaklaşımı ve stratejik öncelikler gibi önceden belirlenen analitik ölçütler çerçevesinde incelenmektedir. Analiz bulguları, belgenin ABD’nin Soğuk Savaş sonrası dönemde benimsediği küresel hâkimiyet ve sınırsız liderlik anlayışından söylemsel düzeyde uzaklaştığını göstermektedir. Çin’in ABD’ye yakın ölçekte bir güç olarak tanımlanması ve rekabetin teknoloji ile ekonomik kapasite alanlarına kaydırılması, askerî üstünlüğün tek başına belirleyici olmadığı yeni bir güç anlayışına işaret etmektedir. Benzer şekilde Rusya’nın yalnızca bertaraf edilmesi gereken bir tehdit olarak değil, Avrupa güvenliği bağlamında yönetilmesi gereken bir aktör olarak ele alınması, daha dengeli bir rekabet yaklaşımının benimsendiğini göstermektedir. Ayrıca müttefiklerden daha fazla sorumluluk üstlenmelerinin talep edilmesi, küresel yük paylaşımına dayalı yeni bir müttefiklik anlayışının öne çıktığını ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışma, 2025 Ulusal Güvenlik Stratejisi Belgesi’nin uluslararası sistemi daha çoğulcu ve rekabetçi bir yapı içerisinde ele alan yeni bir stratejik söylem sunduğunu ileri sürmektedir.

Keywords

• ABD Dış Politikası
• Çok Kutupluluk
• Ulusal Güvenlik Stratejisi
• Küresel Sistem
• Güç Dengesi

The US’ 2025 National Security Strategy and Transformation of Global System Perception

Abstract

This study examines how debates surrounding the structure of the international system are framed within the United States’ 2025 National Security Strategy document. The primary objective of the research is to analyse how the United States (US) defines the distribution of power in the international system and its own global role through the 2025 National Security Strategy. The study is based on qualitative content analysis and evaluates the document through predetermined analytical categories, including the understanding of hegemony, great power competition, alliance approaches, and strategic priorities. The findings demonstrate that the document discursively departs from the notions of global dominance and unlimited leadership that characterised the US strategy in the post–Cold War era. The identification of China as a near-peer power and the shift of competition toward technological and economic capacities indicate the emergence of a conception of power in which military superiority alone is no longer considered decisive. Similarly, the treatment of Russia not merely as a threat to be contained but as an actor to be managed within the context of European security reflects a more balanced understanding of strategic competition. Furthermore, the expectation that allies assume greater responsibilities highlights the prominence of a new alliance framework based on global burden-sharing. The study argues that the 2025 National Security Strategy presents a new strategic discourse that conceptualises the international system as a more pluralistic and competitive structure.

Keywords

• US Foreing Policy
• Multipolarity
• National Security Strategy
• Global System
• Balance Of Power

References

1. Acharya, A. (2017). After Liberal Hegemony: The Advent of a Multiplex World Order. Ethics & International Affairs, 31(3), 271-285. https://doi.org/10.1017/S089267941700020X
2. Allison, G. (2017, Haziran 9). The thucydides trap. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/09/the-thucydides-trap/
3. Bilge, A. S. (1966). Milletlerarası Politika. Ankara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Yayınları.
4. Boynton, S. (2026, Ocak 6). Trump’s actions in Venezuela suggest Canada is ‘on the menu’: Ex-UN envoy. Global News. https://globalnews.ca/news/11601355/trump-venezuela-canada-western-hemisphere-bob-rae
5. Brands H. & Beckley M. (2021, Aralık 16). Washington Is Preparing for the Wrong War With China. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-12-16/washington-preparing-wrong-war-china.
6. Brzezinski, Z. (2016). Büyük Satranç Tahtası: Amerika’nın Küresel Üstünlüğü ve Bunun Stratejik Gereklilikleri. (Y. Türedi, Çev.) İnkılap Kitabevi.
7. Cooper, J. (2025, March). Preparing for a fourth year of war: Military spending in Russia’s budget for 2025 (SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security Paper 2025/04). Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2025-04/preparing_for_a_fourth_year_of_war-military_spending_in_russias_budget_for_2025_1.pdf
8. Copeland, D. C. (1996). Neorealism and the myth of bipolar stability: Toward a new dynamic realist theory of major war. Security Studies, 5(3), 29-89. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636419608429276

9. Dalaa, M., ve Aksoy, H. A. (2021, Mart, 4). Rus güvenlik şirketi Wagner grubunun Afrika ülkelerinde konuşlandığı öne sürülüyor. Anadolu Ajansı. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/rus-guvenlik-sirketi-wagner-grubunun-afrika-ulkelerinde-konuslandigi-one-suruluyor/2164306
10. DeYoung, K., & Ovalle, D. (2026, Ocak 6). Trump team puts a target on Cuba, with threats and oil blockade. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/01/06/cuba-venezuela-regime-change-trump-rubio/
11. Dueck, C. (2017). The Obama doctrine: American grand strategy today. Oxford University Press.
12. Ericson, R. E. (2008). The Russian economy: From Lenin to Putin. Comparative Economic Studies, 50, 713-716. https://doi.org/10.1057/ces.2007.37
13. Erkan Aydın, M., ve Liu, Y. (2025). Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Origin, Transformation, and Discussions on Expansion(s). Bölge Çalışmaları Dergisi, 4(1), 28-57.
14. Evans, G., Newnham J. (2001). The penguin dictionary of international relations. Penguin Books.
15. Farrell, H., & Newman, A. L. (2019). Weaponized interdependence: How global economic networks shape state coercion. International Security, 44(1), 42-79. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00351
16. Gaddis, J. L. (2018). On grand strategy. Penguin Press.
17. Gençkaya, F. (2021). 2009-2017 arası küresel sistemin güvenlik dönüşümü: Tek kutupluluk çok kutupluluğa karşı. Güvenlik Stratejileri Dergisi, 17(38), 255-287. https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.964031
18. Gilpin, R. (1981). War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge University Press.
19. Haas, M. (2005). Putin’s External and Internal Security Policy, Conflict Studies Research Center, 5(5), 1-14.
20. Huntington, S. (2021). Medeniyetler Çatışması ve Dünya Düzeninin Yeniden Kurulması. (E. Berktaş, Çev.) Panama Yayıncılık.
21. Hynd, A. M. (2025). Repositioning middle powers in international hierarchies of status and order. International Relations, 0(0), 1-25. https://doi.org/10.1177/00471178251319723
22. Ikenberry, G. J. (2011). Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order (Vol. 141). Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt7rjt2
23. IMF. (2025). World Economic Outlook Database (October 2025). https://www.imf.org/en/countries/chn#data
24. James, P., & Brecher, M. (1988). Stability and polarity: New paths for inquiry. Journal of Peace Research, 25(1), 31-42. https://doi.org/10.1177/002234338802500104
25. Jinping, X. (2019). The Belt and Road Initiative (Cilt 2). Foreign Languages Press.
26. Kagan, R. (2013). The world America made. Alfred A. Knopf.
27. Karasoy, H. A., ve Zaimoğlu, S. A. (2024). Rusya’nın Ukrayna Politikası Bağlamında Vekâlet ve Modern Savaş Tanımlamaları. Kamu Yönetimi ve Politikaları Dergisi, 5(2), 249-286. https://doi.org/10.58658/kaypod.1505295
28. Kennedy, P. (1989). The rise and fall of the great powers: Economic change and military conflict from 1500 to 2000. Vintage Books.
29. Keyman, E. F. (2022). Güçler dengesi ve kutupluluk. TÜBİTAK Bilim ve Toplum Başkanlığı Popüler Bilim Yayınları Ansiklopedisi. https://ansiklopedi.tubitak.gov.tr/ansiklopedi/gucler_dengesi_ve_kutupluluk
30. Kim, K. H. (2011). China’s entry into the World Trade Organization and its benefits for U.S. industries. International Business & Economics Research Journal (IBER), 2(6), 39-44. https://doi.org/10.19030/iber.v2i6.3807
31. Kindleberger, C. P. (1973). The world in depression, 1929-1939. University of California Press.
32. Kissinger, H. (2012). On China. Penguin Press.
33. Kissinger, H. (2023). Diplomasi. (E. Berktaş, Çev.) Panama Yayıncılık.
34. Korsunskaya, D. (2025, Eylül, 29). Russian defence spending set to fall slightly in 2026, draft budget shows. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-defence-spending-set-fall-slightly-2026-draft-budget-shows-2025-09-29/
35. Kuo, K. (2025, Haziran 26). How China is reinventing the future of global manufacturing. World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/06/how-china-is-reinventing-the-future-of-global-manufacturing/
36. Kuşak ve Yol Girişimi. (2025, Ocak 8). Kısa Tarihi ve Üye Devletler. Kuşak ve Yol İnisiyatifi Ekonomi ve Kültür Derneği Resmi Sitesi: https://www.kusakveyol.org/15/
37. Lane, D. (2009). ‘Coloured Revolution’ as a Political Phenomenon. Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, 25(2-3), 113-135. https://doi.org/10.1080/13523270902860295
38. Lee, Y., Cash, J., & Lee, L. (2025, Aralık 30). China encircles Taiwan in massive military display. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-launches-live-firing-drills-around-taiwan-its-biggest-war-games-date-2025-12-30/
39. Levine, D. A. (2020). Made in China 2025: China’s strategy for becoming a global high-tech superpower and its implications for the U.S. economy, national security, and free trade. Journal of Strategic Security, 13(3), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.13.3.1833
40. Levy, J. S. (1985). The polarity of the system and international stability: An empirical analysis. İçinde N. Sorbasky (Ed.), Polarity and war: The changing structure of international conflict (ss. 41-66). Westview Press.
41. Liang, X., Nan, T., Lopes da Silva, D., Scarazzato, L., Karim, Z., & Guiberteau Ricard, J. (2025). Trends in world military expenditure, 2024 (SIPRI Fact Sheet). Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2025-04/2504_fs_milex_2024.pdf
42. Mearsheimer, J. J. (2010). The Gathering Storm: China’s Challenge to US Power in Asia. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 3, 381-396. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/poq016
43. Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014). The tragedy of great power politics (Updated ed.). W. W. Norton & Company.
44. Mearsheimer, J. J. (2018). The great delusion: Liberal dreams and international realities. Yale University Press.
45. Mearsheimer, J. J. (2019). Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order, International Security, 43(4), 7-50. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00342
46. Mearsheimer, J. J. (2025). War and International Politics. International Security; 49 (4), 7-36. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00507
47. Miller, J. B. (2021, Aralık 8). Russia and China’s strategic alignment in the Indo-Pacific. The Prospect Foundation. https://www.pf.org.tw/en/pfen/33-8098.html
48. Morgenthau, H. J. (1948). Politics among nations. The struggle for power and peace. Knopf.
49. NATO. (2025, Haziran 25). The Hague Summit Declaration. https://www.nato.int/en/about-us/official-texts-and-resources/official-texts/2025/06/25/the-hague-summit-declaration
50. Nye, J. S. (1990). American strategy after bipolarity. International Affairs, 66(3), 513-521. https://doi.org/10.2307/2623071
51. Nye, J. S. (2021). Do morals matter? Presidents and foreign policy from FDR to Trump. Oxford University Press.
52. Organski, A. F. K. (1958). World Politics. Alfred A. Knopf.
53. Peterson, L. (2001). Başkan Putin ve icraatları Rusya’da eskiye dönüş olarak kabul edilebilir mi? Avrasya Dosyası, 6(4), 16-23.
54. Sander, O. (1995). Siyasi tarih: İlk çağlardan 1918’e. İmge Kitabevi.
55. SIPRI. (2025). Unprecedented rise in global military expenditure as European and Middle East spending surges. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2025/unprecedented-rise-global-military-expenditure-european-and-middle-east-spending-surges
56. Sputnik. (2017, Aralık 26). Russia starts forming permanent groups in Syria’s Tartus, Hmeymim bases-Shoigu. Sputnik Globe. https://sputnikglobe.com/20171226/russia-tartus-base-syria-1060321937.html
57. Stelter, B. (2026, Ocak 5). How right-wing media inspired Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine”. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/05/media/trump-donroe-doctrine-ny-post-fox-news
58. Stuenkel, O. (2021). The Financial Crisis, Contested Legitimacy, and the Genesis of Intra-BRICs Cooperation (2006-2008). In: The BRICS and the Future of Global Order (611-630). Bloomsbury Publishing USA.
59. The Guardian. (2026, Ocak 6). White House says using US military is ‘always an option’ for acquiring Greenland. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/06/trump-greenland-control-us-military
60. The White House. (2015). 2015 National Security Strategy. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/docs/2015_national_security_strategy_2.pdf
61. The White House. (2017). 2017 National Security Strategy. https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf
62. The White House. (2022). 2022 National Security Strategy. https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf
63. The White House. (2025). 2025 National Security Strategy. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf
64. Toprak, M. K., ve İsmayıl, T. (2025). Rusya Federasyonu’nun Büyük Güç Olma Politikasında Yakın Çevre Doktrini. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 22(1), 614-630. https://doi.org/10.33437/ksusbd.1547702
65. Vogel, E. F. (2018). Deng Xiaoping ve Çin’in dönüşümü. (M. Leliç, Çev.), Modus Kitap.
66. Wagner, H. (1993). What was bipolarity. International Organization, 47(1), 77-106.
67. Waltz, K. (1979). Theory of international politics. Addison-Wesley.
68. Wohlforth, W. C. (1999). The Stability of a Unipolar World. International Security, 24(1), 5-41. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2539346
69. Xiaoping, D. (2013). On reform. CN Time Books Inc.