Modeling and Forecasting the Impact of Türkiye's Technological Development on Economic Growth

Abstract

This study fundamentally examines the relationship between the economy and technology. In this context, the impact of technological innovation and development on economic growth in Türkiye was analyzed using data from the period 1996-2020. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was employed as the dependent variable, while the number of patent applications (PA) and the number of articles published in scientific and technical journals (STJ) were used as independent variables Multiple linear regression and Bayesian regression analysis were used as the methodology. According to the findings, it was concluded that the impact of technological development indicators on economic growth is positive.

Keywords

• Bayesian Regression Analysis
• Technological Development
• Monte Carlo Method
• Economy

Türkiye’nin Teknolojik Gelişiminin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisinin Modellenmesi ve Tahminlenmesi

Abstract

Bu çalışma temelde, ekonomi-teknoloji ilişkisinin incelenmesine dayanmaktadır. Bu kapsamda, 1996-2020 dönemine ait verilerle Türkiye’deki teknolojik yenilik ve gelişimin ekonomik büyümeye etkisinin değerlendirilmesi için, gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYİH) (bağımlı değişken) ile patent başvuru sayısı (yerleşik olan ve yerleşik olmayan) (PBS) ve bilimsel ve teknik dergilerde yayımlanan makale sayısı (BTM) (bağımsız değişenler) kullanılmıştır. İlgili veri seti Dünya Bankası resmi veri sitesinden elde edilmiştir. Çalışmada yöntem olarak, regresyon analizi ve Bayesyen regresyon analizi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, teknolojik gelişim göstergelerinin ekonomik büyümeye etkisinin pozitif yönlü olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.

Keywords

• Bayesyen Regresyon Analizi
• Teknolojik Gelişim
• Monte Carlo Yöntemi
• Ekonomi

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