The Relationship between Labor Force Participation Rate and Unemployment Rate in Turkey: An Analysis Based on Gender and Education Level

Abstract

According to the economic theory, changes in the unemployment rate can have two different effects on the labor force participation rate. In the periods of economic stagnation when the unemployment rate increases, the decrease in the labor force participation rate is explained by the discouraged worker effect; while the increase in labor force participation rate is explained by the added worker effect. In this study, it was investigated which of these effects is dominant in Turkey’s labor market, using data from January 2014 to July 2017. To achieve more detailed information on the relationship between labor force participation rate and the unemployment rate, the econometric analysis process was conducted using the data based on education level and gender. Findings indicate that the added worker effect is dominant for highly or vocation-educated women, while there was no significant long-term relationship between labor force participation and unemployment rate for high-skilled men.

Keywords

• Added Worker Effect,Discouraged Worker Effect,Labor Market,ARDL Model,Turkey

Türkiye’de İşgücüne Katılma Oranı-İşsizlik Oranı İlişkisi: Cinsiyet ve Eğitim Düzeyine Dayalı Bir Analiz

Abstract

Ekonomik teoriye göre, işsizlik oranındaki değişmeler işgücüne katılma oranı üzerinde iki farkı etkiye sahip olabilmektedir. İşsizlik oranının arttığı ekonomik daralma dönemlerinde işgücüne katılma oranının azalması gücenmiş işçi etkisi, işgücüne katılma oranının artması ise ilave işçi etkisi ile açıklanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Ocak 2014-Temmuz 2017 dönemi verileri kullanılarak Türkiye'nin işgücü piyasasında bu iki etkiden hangisinin baskın olduğu araştırılmıştır. İşgücüne katılma oranı ile işsizlik oranı arasındaki ilişkiye yönelik daha ayrıntılı bilgiye ulaşmak amacıyla, ekonometrik analiz süreci eğitim düzeyi ve cinsiyete dayalı veriler kullanılarak yürütülmüştür. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre yüksek ya da mesleki eğitimli kadınlar için ilave işçi etkisi baskın etki iken, kalifiye erkeklerin işgücüne katılma oranı ile işsizlik oranı arasında uzun dönemli anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmamaktadır.

Keywords

• İlave İşçi Etkisi,Gücenmiş İşçi Etkisi,İşgücü Piyasası,ARDL Modeli,Türkiye

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