Tarımsal Desteklerin Tarımsal İhracat Üzerindeki Etkisi

Abstract

Bu çalışma tarımsal desteklerin Türk tarımsal ihracatı üzerindeki etkisini, krizleri de göz önünde bulundurarak ele almaktadır. 1986-2019 dönemleri için yıllık veriler kullanılarak, tarımsal ihracat üzerindeki etkiyi görmek için ARDL sınır testi, krizleri analiz etmek için de yapısal kırılma testi uygulanmaktadır. Ampirik bulgular tarımsal ihracatın, tarımsal destek ve kişi başına GSYİH ile pozitif ilişkili olduğunu, reel döviz kuru ve kriz dönemi ile ise negatif ilişkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Yapısal kırılma testi sonuçları, 2000-2002 dönemi için anlamlı olmamakla birlikte, tarımsal ihracat üzerinde negatif etkisinin olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Tarımsal Destek
• Tarımsal İhracat
• Sürdürülebilirlik
• Ekonomik Kriz
• Yapısal Kırılma Testi

Impact of Agricultural Supports on the Agricultural Export

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the impact of agricultural supports on Turkish agricultural export by taking the crises into consideration. By using annual data for the 1986-2019 period, ARDL bound test is implemented for the impact on agricultural export and structural break test for the crises. The empirical results reveal that while agricultural export has a positive relationship with agricultural support and GDP per capita, negative relationship with real exchange rate and the crisis period. Structural break test shows the importance of 2000-2002 period on the export, however that period is not significant, it has a negative impact on the agricultural export.

Keywords

• Agricultural Export
• Agricultural Support
• Sustainability
• Economic Crisis
• Structural Break Test

References

1. Akkaraca Kose, M. (2012). “Agricultural Policy Reforms and Their Implications on Rural Development: Turkey and the EU”, Ankara Avrupa Çalışmaları Dergisi, Vol. 11, No. 2: 75-98.
2. Bayrac, H.N.; Dogan, E. (2016). “Türkiye’de İklim Değişikliğinin Tarım Sektörü Üzerine Etkileri”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, Vol. 11, No. 1: 23-48.
3. Bayraktar, Y.; Bulut, E. (2016). “The Changing Structure of Agricultural Supports and the Causes of High Agricultural Supports: A Comparative Analysis for Turkey”, İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, Vol. 66, No. 1: 45-66.
4. Cakmak, E.H. (2003). “Evaluation of the Past and Future Agricultural Policies in Turkey: Are They Capable to Achieve Sustainability?”, Options Mediterraneennes, Vol. 52: 155-165.
5. Ceylan, S.F.; Ozkan, B. (2020). “Assessing Impacts of COVID-19 on Agricultural Production and Food Systems in the World and in Turkey”, Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 2020 Special Issue: 472-485.
6. Dickey, D. A.; Fuller, W. A. (1981). “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root”, Econometrica, Vol. 49, No.4: 1057-1072.
7. Dogani, H.G.; Kan, A; Kan, M. (2019). “The Nexus of Agricultural Credit and Agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Terms of European Union Rural Area Typology in Turkey”, Turkish Journal of Agriculture-Food Science and Technology, Vol. 7, No.11: 1966-1971.
8. FAO. (2020). “Impacts of COVID-19 on Agriculture, Food Systems and Rural Livelihoods in Eastern Africa: Policy and Programmatic Options”, http://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/cb0552en/, (Access date: 14.05.2021).

9. Gbetnkom, D.; Khan, S.A. (2002). “Determinants of Agricultural Exports the Case of Cameroon”, AERC Research Paper 120.
10. Gocer, I. (2013). “Küresel Ekonomik Krizin Etkileri: Panel Veri Analizi”, Balıkesir University The Journal of Social Sciences Institute, Vol. 16, No. 29: 163-188.
11. Hasdemir, M. (2016). “Agricultural Support Policies and Public Budgeting in Turkey”, Management Studies, Vol. 4, No. 6: 237-242.
12. Hayaloglu, P. (2018). “Iklim Değişikliğinin Tarım Sektörü ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri”, Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Elektronik Dergisi, Vol. 9, No. 25: 51-62.
13. Hoekman, B.; Ng, F; Olarreaga, M. (2004). “Agricultural Tariffs or Subsidies: Which are More Important for Developing Economies?”, The World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 18, No. 2: 175-204.
14. Isik, H.B.; Bilgin, O. (2016). The Effects of Agricultural Support Policies on Agricultural Production: The Case of Turkey. RSEP International Conferences on Social Issues and Economic Studies, 2nd Multidisciplinary Conference, Madrid, Spain 2-4 November.
15. Koc, K.; Islek, H. (2020). “Causality Relationship between Agricultural Support and Agricultural Production in BRICS-T Countries: Bootstrap Causality Analysis”, Journal Social Research and Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 6, No. 12: 284-295.
16. Konyali, S.; Oraman, Y. (2020). “The Role of Agricultural Supports in Sustainable Rural Development: The Case of Turkey”. In: Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference “Bulgaria of Regions’2019”.
17. Koo, W. W.; Kennedy, P. L. (2006). “The Impact of Agricultural Subsidies on Global Welfare”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 88, No. 5: 1219-1226.
18. Lee, J.; Strazicich, M.C. (2013). “Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break”, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 33, No. 4: 2483-2492.
19. Matthews, A.; Salvatici, L.; Scoppola, M. (2017). “Trade Impacts of Agricultural Support in the EU”, IATRC Commisioned Papers, No.19.
20. Ozer, O.O. (2012). “Turkey’s Exports of Agricultural Products Export Function and Effects of Exchange Rate Uncertainty”. Selçuk Tarım ve Gıda Bilimleri Dergisi, Vol. 26, No. 2: 63-69.
21. Ozertem, H.S. (2017). “Turkey and Russia: A Fragile Friendship”, Turkish Policy Quarterly, Vol. 15, No. 4: 121-134.
22. Pesaran, M.H.; Shin, Y. (1999). “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”, Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century the Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, (Eds. S.Strom, A. Holly and P. Diamond), Cambridge University Press: Cambridge: 371-413.
23. Pesaran, M. H.; Shin, Y; Smith, R. J. (2001). “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationship”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 16, No. 3: 289-326.
24. Semerci, A. (2019). “Evaluation of Agricultural Support Implementations in Turkey”, COMU Journal of Agriculture Faculty, Vol. 7, No. 1: 181-186.
25. Strazicich, M.; Lee, J. (2003). “Minimum LM Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 85, No. 4: 1082-1089.
26. Tong, L. A.; Pham, C. S.; Ulubasoglu, M. A. (2019). “The Effects of Farm Subsidies on Farm Exports in the United States”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 101, No. 4: 1277-1304.
27. Turkish Exporters Assembly. (2020). “Sektörel Bazda Rakamlar”, https://tim.org.tr/tr/ihracat-rakamlari, (Access date: 14.05.2021).
28. Yanikkaya, H.; Aktas Koral, Z. (2013). “Impacts of Agricultural Supports on Exports of Individual Agricultural Products in Turkey”. International Review of Economics and Management, Vol. 1, No. 1: 1-37.
29. Yilmaz, O. T. (2013). “Evolution and Level of Agricultural Support in Turkey and in The European Union”. Marmara Üniversitesi Avrupa Topluluğu Enstitüsü Avrupa Araştırmaları Dergisi, Vol. 21, No. 2: 195-216.
30. Yuceer, S.E; Tan, S.; Semerci, A. (2020). “Examining 2000-2020 Periods of Agricultural Support Policies in Turkey”, Lapseki Meslek Yüksekokulu Uygulamalı Araştırmalar Dergisi, Vol. 1, No. 2: 36-46.