ANALYSIS OF CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP AMONG GDP, AGRICULTURAL, INDUSTRIAL AND SERVICES SECTOR GROWTH IN TURKEY

Year 2017, , 75 - 84, 08.07.2017

Filiz Yetiz , Cevher Özden

https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.305729

Cited By: 6

Abstract

This paper investigates the causal relationship among GDP, agricultural, industrial and services sectors in Turkey for the period of 1968-2015. For this purpose, we employed Engle-Granger causality/block exogeneity Wald test, Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition analysis. The results showed unidirectional Granger causality from agriculture to GDP and the other three sectors, while the agricultural sector is not influenced by the others. This is an expected result for any developing country where the agriculture accounts for a large proportion of national GDP, but an unexpected result for developed countries like European Union members to which Turkey has long been wishing to join. To our knowledge, although this method has been applied in various areas, sectoral causality has not been studied for Turkey before

Keywords

Causality, Granger, Agriculture, Impulse-Response, Variance Decomposition, GDP, Turkey

TÜRKİYE‘DE GSYİH, TARIM, SANAYİ VE HİZMETLER SEKTÖRLERİ ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, 1968-2015 yılları arasında Türkiye’nin GSYİH ile tarım, sanayi ve hizmetler sektörleri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi incelenmektedir. Bu amaçla, Engle-Granger nedensellik/Blok Dışsallık Wald testleri ile Etki-Tepki ve Varyans Ayrıştırma analizleri uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, tarım sektöründen GSYİH, sanayi ve hizmetler sektörüne doğru tek yönlü granger nedenselliğin bulunduğu, ancak tarım sektörünün diğer sektörlerden etkilenmediği görülmüştür. Bu bulgu, halen GSYİH’nın önemli bir kısmını tarım sektörünün oluşturduğu gelişmekte olan ülkeler için beklenen bir sonuçtur ancak Türkiye’nin uzun yıllardır tam üye olmak istediği AB Ülkeleri gibi sanayileşmiş ekonomilerde görülmesi beklenmez. Nedensellik analizi daha önce pek çok alanda uygulanmış olmasına karşın, bilgimiz dahilinde sektörel nedensellik analizi Türkiye için daha önce gerçekleştirilmemiştir. 

Keywords

Nedensellik, Granger, Tarım, Etki-Tepki, Varyans Ayrıştırması, GSYİH, Türkiye

References

• REFERENCES
• TSI, (2016). Turkish Statistical Institute, National Accounts and Employment Databases. http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=kategorist Arısoy İ. (2005). Industrial Development in Turkey in terms of Industrialization and Main Indicators, Cukurova University, Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 14, 1. Tiwari, A. (2011). Relationship between Industry, Agriculture, Service Sectors and GDP: The Indian Experience. International Journal of Economics and Business, 1(2010), 1. Mostafizur Rahman, Sayedur Rahman and Wu Hai-bing, 2011. Time Series Analysis of Causal Relationship among GDP, Agricultural, Industrial and Service Sector Growth in Bangladesh. China-USA Business Review, 10 (2011), 1, 9-15. Gülistan Erdal, Hilmi Erdal, Kemal Esengün, 2008. The causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey. Energy Policy, 36 (2008) 3838-3842. Dagher, L., Yacoubian, T. (2012). The Casual Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Lebanon. Energy Policy, 50 (2015), 795-801. Adenomon, M. O., Oyejola, B. A. (2013). Impact of Agriculture and Industrialization on GDP in Nigeria: Evidence from VAR and SVAR Models. International Journal of Analysis and Applications, 1, 1, 40-78. Siboleka, M., Nyambe, J. M., Osterkamp, R.(2014). Agriculture and Manufacturing Sector Growth in Namibia during the 1981 to 2012: A Granger Causality Test. British Journal of Economics, Management&Trade, 4(11):1700-1707. Gaspar, J., Gilson, P., Simoes, M. C. N. (2015). Agriculture in Portugal: Linkages with industry and services. Faculdade de Economica da Universidaded de Coimbra. Yetiz, F. (2008). Structure of the Financial System, Relationship between Financial Depth and Economic Growth, Turkish Finance System, Cukurova University, Department of Economy, Master Thesis. Narin, M. (2011). Change in the Agricultural Support Policies implemented in Turkey, Journal of Economic Approach, 19, 183-225. Eurostat, (2016). European Statistics, National Accounts Database, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database Temiz, D., Gökmen, A.(2010). An Analysis of the Export and Economic Growth in Turkey over the period of 1950-2009. International Journal of Economic and Administrative Studies, 5, 5. Evrimoğlu U., Çondur, F. (2012). An Analysis of Interlinkages between The IMKB and the Shock Exchange Markets of Developed and Developing Countries for Pre- and Post-Crisis Periods, Uludag Journal of Economy and Society, 16, 1.