ANALYSIS OF CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP AMONG GDP, AGRICULTURAL, INDUSTRIAL AND SERVICES SECTOR GROWTH IN TURKEY

Abstract

This paper investigates the causal relationship among GDP, agricultural, industrial and services sectors in Turkey for the period of 1968-2015. For this purpose, we employed Engle-Granger causality/block exogeneity Wald test, Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition analysis. The results showed unidirectional Granger causality from agriculture to GDP and the other three sectors, while the agricultural sector is not influenced by the others. This is an expected result for any developing country where the agriculture accounts for a large proportion of national GDP, but an unexpected result for developed countries like European Union members to which Turkey has long been wishing to join. To our knowledge, although this method has been applied in various areas, sectoral causality has not been studied for Turkey before

Keywords

• Causality
• Granger
• Agriculture
• Impulse-Response
• Variance Decomposition
• GDP
• Turkey

TÜRKİYE‘DE GSYİH, TARIM, SANAYİ VE HİZMETLER SEKTÖRLERİ ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada, 1968-2015 yılları arasında Türkiye’nin GSYİH ile tarım, sanayi ve hizmetler sektörleri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi incelenmektedir. Bu amaçla, Engle-Granger nedensellik/Blok Dışsallık Wald testleri ile Etki-Tepki ve Varyans Ayrıştırma analizleri uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, tarım sektöründen GSYİH, sanayi ve hizmetler sektörüne doğru tek yönlü granger nedenselliğin bulunduğu, ancak tarım sektörünün diğer sektörlerden etkilenmediği görülmüştür. Bu bulgu, halen GSYİH’nın önemli bir kısmını tarım sektörünün oluşturduğu gelişmekte olan ülkeler için beklenen bir sonuçtur ancak Türkiye’nin uzun yıllardır tam üye olmak istediği AB Ülkeleri gibi sanayileşmiş ekonomilerde görülmesi beklenmez. Nedensellik analizi daha önce pek çok alanda uygulanmış olmasına karşın, bilgimiz dahilinde sektörel nedensellik analizi Türkiye için daha önce gerçekleştirilmemiştir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Nedensellik
• Granger
• Tarım
• Etki-Tepki
• Varyans Ayrıştırması
• GSYİH
• Türkiye

Kaynakça

1. REFERENCES
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