Türkiye’nin Ticaret Etkinliği: Stokastik Sınır Çekim Modeli Yaklaşımı

Year 2018, , 29 - 48, 09.02.2018

Memduh Alper Demir , Mustafa Bilik

https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.309214

Cited By: 6

Abstract

Bu
çalışmada, Türkiye’nin dış ticaret potansiyeli stokastik sınır çekim modeli
uygulanarak incelenmektedir. Ayrıca, dış ticaretteki büyümeyi kısıtlayıcı
faktörleri tespit edilmektedir. Çalışma Türkiye’nin 31 dış ticaret ortağının
2003-2014 yılları arası panel verileri kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Çalışmada, dış
ticareti etkileyen; kişi başına gelir, gayri safi yurt içi hasıla, nüfus
yoğunluğu, uzaklık, ticari serbestlik, ortak gümrük gibi temel değişkenler
modellenmiştir.  Dış ticaret açısından
Türkiye’nin ortalama etkinliğinin %60 olduğu ve ülke bazlı olarak %11 ile %96
arasında çıkan etkinlik sonuçlarına varılmıştır. Etkinliği ortalamanın altında
kalan ülkelerdeki nedenler tartışılmış ve çözüm önerileri sunulmuştur.

Keywords

Çekim Modeli, Stokastik Sınır Analizi, Etkinlik, Dış Ticaret, Türkiye

Turkey’s Trade Effıcıency: A Stochastıc Frontıer Gravıty Model Approach

Abstract

In this study,
Turkey’s trade potential is examined by applying the stochastic frontier
gravity model. Furthermore, restrictive factors on trade growth are determined.
This article uses a panel data of Turkey’s thirty-one trade partner countries
from 2003 -2014. Basic variables such as per capita income, gross domestic product,
population density, distance, trade freedom, common customs which are affect the
trade are analyzed in the model. The findings show that Turkey’s trade
average efficiency score is %60 and country-pair specific scores are among
between %11 and %96. Causes discussed for the countries that have below average
efficiency score and finally implications presented.  

Keywords

Gravity Model, Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Efficiency, Trade, Turkey

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