Türkiye’nin Ticaret Etkinliği: Stokastik Sınır Çekim Modeli Yaklaşımı

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin dış ticaret potansiyeli stokastik sınır çekim modeli uygulanarak incelenmektedir. Ayrıca, dış ticaretteki büyümeyi kısıtlayıcı faktörleri tespit edilmektedir. Çalışma Türkiye’nin 31 dış ticaret ortağının 2003-2014 yılları arası panel verileri kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Çalışmada, dış ticareti etkileyen; kişi başına gelir, gayri safi yurt içi hasıla, nüfus yoğunluğu, uzaklık, ticari serbestlik, ortak gümrük gibi temel değişkenler modellenmiştir.  Dış ticaret açısından Türkiye’nin ortalama etkinliğinin %60 olduğu ve ülke bazlı olarak %11 ile %96 arasında çıkan etkinlik sonuçlarına varılmıştır. Etkinliği ortalamanın altında kalan ülkelerdeki nedenler tartışılmış ve çözüm önerileri sunulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Çekim Modeli,Stokastik Sınır Analizi,Etkinlik,Dış Ticaret,Türkiye

Turkey’s Trade Effıcıency: A Stochastıc Frontıer Gravıty Model Approach

Abstract

In this study, Turkey’s trade potential is examined by applying the stochastic frontier gravity model. Furthermore, restrictive factors on trade growth are determined. This article uses a panel data of Turkey’s thirty-one trade partner countries from 2003 -2014. Basic variables such as per capita income, gross domestic product, population density, distance, trade freedom, common customs which are affect the trade are analyzed in the model. The findings show that Turkey’s trade average efficiency score is %60 and country-pair specific scores are among between %11 and %96. Causes discussed for the countries that have below average efficiency score and finally implications presented.  

Keywords

• Gravity Model,Stochastic Frontier Analysis,Efficiency,Trade,Turkey

Kaynakça

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