Enerji Fiyatlarının Dış Ticaret Açığı Üzerindeki Rolü: Doğrusal Olmayan İlişkinin Analizi

Year 2017, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 62 - 71, 03.05.2017

İbrahim Doğan Süleyman Gürbüz

Abstract

Enerji ülkelerin gerek ekonomik büyüme performansları gerekse de dış
ticaret işlemleri açısından önemli bir üretim faktörüdür. Özellikle enerjide
dışa bağımlı olan ülkelerde enerji harcamaları dış ticaret üzerinde kaydadeğer
etkilere sahip olabilmektedir. Bu amaçla çalışmada, enerji giderleri ile dış
ticaret açığı arasındaki ilişki doğrusal olmayan ekonometrik modellerle ele
alınmıştır.  Veriler TÜİK ve MB’dan
(TCMB) alınmış olup 2002:1- 2015:12 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Doğrusal olmayan
Granger nedensellik analizi sonuçları enerji giderleri ve dış ticaret açığı
değişkenleri arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

Enerji Harcaması, Dış Ticaret Açığı, Doğrusal Olmayan Granger Nedensellik Analizi

Role of Energy Prices on Foreign Trade Deficit: Analiysis of Non-Linear Relationship

Abstract

Energy is an importantproduction
factor for both countries’ economic growth and their foreign trade. Especially,
in countries which are foreign source dependant on, energy expenditure may have
considerable effects on foreign trade. For this purpose, the relationship in
between energy expenditure and foreign trade deficit is discussed through non-
linear econometric models. The data is taken from database of TUIK and Cebtral
Bank (CBRT)for the term 2002:1- 2015:12. Non-linear Granger causality analiysis
has shown that, the variables of energy consumption and foreign trade deficit
have a bidirectional causality relationship. 

Keywords

Energy Expanditure, Foreign Trade Deficit, Non-linear Granger Causality Analysis

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