The determinants of income poverty and material deprivation for Turkey: A multinomial probit model

Year 2023, Volume: 16 Issue: 1, 224 - 240, 31.01.2023

Mehmet Sedat Uğur

https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.1177542

Cited By: 1

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors that affect income poverty and material deprivation of the individuals simultaneously for different sub-categories in Turkey. The analysis was conducted with multinomial probit model by using cross-sectional data of TurkStat's Survey of Income and Living Conditions for the year of 2018. The findings indicate that education is the key factor influencing both income poverty and material deprivation for individuals in Turkey. Accordingly, the probability of individuals being both income poor and materially deprived decreases as the level of education increases. In addition, variables such as age, gender, marital status, health, employment status and household size also have an impact on income poverty and material deprivation. Families with single parents and children, as well as the unemployed, have the highest probability of being materially deprived and income poor. While the probability of being income poor and materially deprived decreases as age increases, and men are more likely to be income poor and materially deprived than women, the effects of marital status and health differ in sub-categories. This implies that the effects of variables are not always in the same direction or magnitudes for income poor and materially deprived individuals, and in this context, income poverty and material deprivation should be evaluated differently, and policy-makers should also produce different policies for these two different situations.

Keywords

Income poverty, material deprivation, multinomial probit model

Türkiye için gelir yoksulluğu ve maddi yoksunluğun belirleyicileri: Çok durumlu probit modeli

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye için eş anlı olarak hem gelir yoksulluğu ve maddi yoksunluğu veya bunlardan birini tecrübe edip, diğerini etmeyen bireylerin bu durumlarına etki eden faktörleri incelemektir. TÜİK’in Gelir ve Yaşam Koşulları Araştırması’nın 2018 yılı mikro-kesit verileriyle çok durumlu bir probit model kurularak analiz gerçekleştirilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’de bireylerin hem gelir yoksulluğunu hem de maddi yoksunluğunu etkileyen en önemli değişkenin eğitim olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna göre eğitim düzeyi arttıkça bireylerin hem gelir yoksulu hem de maddi yoksun olma olasılıkları azalmaktadır. Eğitim değişkeninin yanında yaş, cinsiyet, medeni durum, sağlık, iş durumu ve hanehalkı büyüklüğü gibi değişkenler de gelir yoksulluğu ve maddi yoksunluk üzerinde etkilidir. Hane içerisinde gelir yoksulu ve maddi yoksun olma riski en yüksek gruplar ise tek ebeveyn ve çocuklardan oluşan aileler ve işsizlerdir. Yaş arttıkça gelir yoksulu ve maddi yoksun olma olasılığı azalmaktadır. Erkeklerin kadınlara göre gelir yoksulu ve maddi yoksun olma olasılıkları daha fazla iken, medeni durum ve sağlığın etkileri alt-kategorilerde farklılaşmaktadır. Bu da değişkenlerin, bireylerin gelir yoksulluğuna veya maddi yoksunluğuna etkilerinin her zaman aynı yönde olmadığını veya farklı büyüklüklerde olduğunu ve bu bağlamda gelir yoksulluğu ile maddi yoksunluğun farklı değerlendirilmesi gerektiğini göstermektedir. Politika-yapıcıların da bu iki farklı durum için farklı politikalar üretmesi gerekmektedir.

Keywords

Gelir yoksulluğu, maddi yoksunluk, çok durumlu probit modeli

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