Majör Liglerde Büyük Maçların Stratejik Önemi; Avrupa Futbol Liglerinde Puan ve Sıralama Dinamikleri Üzerine Bir Analiz

Year 2026, Volume: 17 Issue: 1, 147 - 163, 19.03.2026

Furkan Can Şahin , Faruk Albay , Refik Çabuk , İzzet İslamoğlu , Yıldırım Kayacan

https://doi.org/10.17155/omuspd.1834796

https://izlik.org/JA93CS48DH

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Avrupa’nın dört büyük futbol ligi olan Premier Lig, LaLiga, Serie A ve Bundesliga’da 2020–2025 sezonları arasında ligi ilk dört sırada tamamlayan takımların “büyük maç” performanslarının sezon sonu sıralamasındaki belirleyici rolünü incelemektedir. Araştırmada, söz konusu takımların birbirleriyle oynadıkları maçlardan elde ettikleri “Mini Lig Puanı” ile genel lig puanları arasındaki ilişki değerlendirilmiş; ayrıca toplam şut sayısı, rakip ceza sahasında topla buluşma ve maçlardan kazanılan puan gibi temel performans göstergeleri analiz edilmiştir. Pearson korelasyon analizleri ligler arasında dikkat çekici farklılıklar ortaya koymuştur. Serie A’da Mini Lig puanı ile genel lig puanı arasında güçlü ve anlamlı bir ilişki (r = 0,65; p = .001), LaLiga’da yüksek düzeyde anlamlı bir ilişki (r = 0,60; p = .005) ve Bundesliga’da orta düzeyde anlamlı bir ilişki (r = 0,50; p = .024) tespit edilmiştir. Buna karşın Premier Lig’de değişkenler arasında anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmamıştır (p = .497); bu durum ligin rekabetçi yapısının diğer liglere kıyasla daha dengeli olduğunu göstermektedir. ANOVA ve post-hoc analizleri özellikle Bundesliga’da belirgin performans üstünlüklerini ortaya koymuştur. Bayern Münih’in 2021–2022 sezonunda hem toplam şut hem de rakip ceza sahasında topla buluşma değişkenlerinde tüm rakiplerine karşı anlamlı üstünlük sağladığı görülmüştür. LaLiga’da Barcelona’nın Sevilla’ya karşı toplam şutta anlamlı fark yarattığı, Premier Lig’de ise Liverpool ve Manchester City’nin bazı sezonlarda sınırlı fakat anlamlı üstünlükler sergilediği belirlenmiştir. Bulgular genel olarak, Serie A, LaLiga ve Bundesliga’da büyük maç performansının sezon sıralamasını güçlü biçimde öngördüğünü; Premier Lig’de ise başarının daha çok lig geneline karşı gösterilen istikrara dayandığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

Futbol , Mini Lig , Maç Analizi.

The Strategic Importance of Big Matches in Major Leagues; An Analysis of Points and Ranking Dynamics in European Football Leagues

https://izlik.org/JA93CS48DH

Abstract

This study examines the extent to which “big match performance” predicts end-of-season standings among the top four teams in Europe’s major football leagues— the Premier League, LaLiga, Serie A, and the Bundesliga during the 2020–2025 seasons. The analysis focuses on the relationship between teams’ “Mini League Points,” derived from matches played exclusively among the top-four contenders, and their overall league points. Additionally, key performance indicators such as total shots, touches in the opponent’s penalty area, and points gained per match were evaluated. Pearson correlation results revealed notable inter-league differences. A strong and significant association was found in Serie A (r = 0.65; p = .001), a high-level significant association in LaLiga (r = 0.60; p = .005), and a moderate but significant association in the Bundesliga (r = 0.50; p = .024). Conversely, no significant relationship was detected in the Premier League (p = .497), suggesting that competitive balance in this league is higher than in the others. ANOVA and post-hoc analyses further highlighted clear performance advantages in certain seasons, particularly in the Bundesliga. Bayern Munich demonstrated significant superiority in both total shots and penalty-area touches over all rivals in the 2021–2022 season. In LaLiga, Barcelona produced a significant advantage in total shots against Sevilla, whereas in the Premier League, Liverpool and Manchester City showed limited but statistically significant advantages in select seasons. Overall, the graphical and statistical findings indicate that big match performance strongly aligns with season outcomes in Serie A, LaLiga, and the Bundesliga, whereas in the Premier League, success is determined more by overall consistency against the entire league rather than dominance in top-level encounters.

Keywords

Football , Mini League , Football Analysis

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