Prediction of The Referendum Results According To People's Attitude Towards The Local Government

H. Mustafa Paksoy; Mehmet Özçalıcı; B. Dilek Özbezek

doi:10.26466/opus.639650

EN TR

Prediction of The Referendum Results According To People's Attitude Towards The Local Government

Abstract

In recent years, the referendums play an important role in modern democracies. With the rapid changes in globalization, information and communication technologies and the increasing complexity of economic and social problems caused by intense competition, especially the referendums that are held to maximize the legitimacy of the decisions taken by the public will are seen as direct participation of citizens in the political process when traditional forms of political participation are declining. This study present a method to predict how citizen will vote in the referendum only by starting from their attitude towards local governments. For this purpose, a qualitative research was designed and 2446 voters were interviewed in Kilis Province Center of Turkey. In the study, Support Vector Machines, which is a nonparametric classification method based on statistical learning theory, was used to estimate the referendum results that would be voted as yes or no. At the end of the study, by using twenty-six variables, the rate of people voting in the referendum was predicted by 81%. This results guide the survey companies' efforts to predict the results of the referendum

Keywords

Support Vector Machines,Referendum,Forecasting,Voting

Referandum Sonucunun Seçmenlerin Yerel Yönetime Tutumu İle Tahmin Edilmesi

Abstract

Son yıllarda referandumlar modern demokrasilerde önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Küreselleşme, bilgi ve iletişim teknolojilerindeki hızlı değişimler ve yoğun rekabetin meydana getirdiği ekonomik ve sosyal problemlerin giderek daha karmaşık hale gelmesi ile birlikte kamu iradesinin aldığı kararların meşruluğunu en üst düzeye çıkarmak için kullanılan referandumlar, özelikle geleneksel siyasal katılım azaldığı dönemde vatandaşların siyasi sürece doğrudan katılımı olarak görülmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı vatandaşların sadece yerel yönetimlere karşı tutumlarından yola çıkarak referandumda ne yönde oy kullanacakları tahmin edilmesi için bir yöntem ortaya koymaktır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda nitel bir araştırma tasarlanmış ve Kilis İl Merkez’de 2446 adet seçmene anket uygulanmıştır. Çalışmada evet veya hayır yönünde oy kullanılacak referandum sonuçları tahmin edilmesinde istatistiksel öğrenme teorisine dayalı parametrik olmayan bir sınıflandırma yöntemi olan Destek Vektör Makineleri (Support Vector Machines) kullanılmıştır. Araştırma sonunda yirmi altı değişken kullanmak suretiyle, kişilerin referandumda hangi yönde oy kullanacakları %81 oranında önceden kestirilebilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar anket şirketlerinin referandum sonuçlarını önceden tahmin etme çabalarına yol gösterici niteliktedir.

Keywords

Destek Vektör Makineleri,Referandum,Tahmin,Oy verme

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Operation

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

H. Mustafa Paksoy
0000-0001-7975-1795
Türkiye

Mehmet Özçalıcı
0000-0003-0384-6872
Türkiye

B. Dilek Özbezek ^*
0000-0001-7176-1534
Türkiye

Publication Date

February 29, 2020

Submission Date

October 29, 2019

Acceptance Date

February 14, 2020

Published in Issue

Year 2020 Volume: 15 Number: 22

DOI

https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.639650

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA85PP63BK

APA

Paksoy, H. M., Özçalıcı, M., & Özbezek, B. D. (2020). Prediction of The Referendum Results According To People’s Attitude Towards The Local Government. OPUS International Journal of Society Researches, 15(22), 823-839. https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.639650

AMA

1.Paksoy HM, Özçalıcı M, Özbezek BD. Prediction of The Referendum Results According To People’s Attitude Towards The Local Government. OPUS International Journal of Society Researches. 2020;15(22):823-839. doi:10.26466/opus.639650

Chicago

Paksoy, H. Mustafa, Mehmet Özçalıcı, and B. Dilek Özbezek. 2020. “Prediction of The Referendum Results According To People’s Attitude Towards The Local Government”. OPUS International Journal of Society Researches 15 (22): 823-39. https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.639650.

EndNote

Paksoy HM, Özçalıcı M, Özbezek BD (February 1, 2020) Prediction of The Referendum Results According To People’s Attitude Towards The Local Government. OPUS International Journal of Society Researches 15 22 823–839.

IEEE

[1]H. M. Paksoy, M. Özçalıcı, and B. D. Özbezek, “Prediction of The Referendum Results According To People’s Attitude Towards The Local Government”, OPUS International Journal of Society Researches, vol. 15, no. 22, pp. 823–839, Feb. 2020, doi: 10.26466/opus.639650.

ISNAD

Paksoy, H. Mustafa - Özçalıcı, Mehmet - Özbezek, B. Dilek. “Prediction of The Referendum Results According To People’s Attitude Towards The Local Government”. OPUS International Journal of Society Researches 15/22 (February 1, 2020): 823-839. https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.639650.

JAMA

1.Paksoy HM, Özçalıcı M, Özbezek BD. Prediction of The Referendum Results According To People’s Attitude Towards The Local Government. OPUS International Journal of Society Researches. 2020;15:823–839.

MLA

Paksoy, H. Mustafa, et al. “Prediction of The Referendum Results According To People’s Attitude Towards The Local Government”. OPUS International Journal of Society Researches, vol. 15, no. 22, Feb. 2020, pp. 823-39, doi:10.26466/opus.639650.

Vancouver

1.H. Mustafa Paksoy, Mehmet Özçalıcı, B. Dilek Özbezek. Prediction of The Referendum Results According To People’s Attitude Towards The Local Government. OPUS International Journal of Society Researches. 2020 Feb. 1;15(22):823-39. doi:10.26466/opus.639650

Prediction of The Referendum Results According To People's Attitude Towards The Local Government

Abstract

Keywords

Referandum Sonucunun Seçmenlerin Yerel Yönetime Tutumu İle Tahmin Edilmesi

Abstract

Keywords

References

Details

Primary Language

Subjects

Journal Section

Authors

Publication Date

Submission Date

Acceptance Date

Published in Issue

DOI

IZ

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