Development of pavement performance prediction model for bituminous hot mix asphalt on interurban road networks

Year 2017, Volume: 23 Issue: 6, 718 - 725, 15.12.2017

Ufuk Kırbaş Mustafa Karaşahin , Emine Nazan Ünal Muhammet Komut Birol Demir Kıvılcım Öcal

Abstract

The
correct prediction of the deterioration of bituminous hot mix asphalt (HMA),
which is a significant substructure investment for roads, is an indispensable
element in the correct sorting of the budget allocated for maintenance and
repair. This study has developed a pavement performance prediction model for
state roads and intercity roads hot mix asphalt (HMA) coated under the
responsibility of General Directorate of Highways (KGM) for capable of
performance forecast for next year. International roughness index (IRI) were
used as a performance indicator of pavements. Pavement condition index (PCI) of
the road sections (year of construction of the road known by KGM), using
existing pavement distresses data by PAVER system, were obtained. The
prediction performance model was developed depending on the age and PCI of the road
sections using deterministic regression model technique. Then, mathematical
relationship was determined between PCI and IRI on the same road section. The
obtained mathematical relationship is integrated into the prediction
performance model. A prediction model determines the pavements IRI values for
the coming years, based on independent variables of measured IRI value and year's
estimated performance, were obtained. The accuracy of the IRI deterioration prediction
model was controlled by the data sets not used in the modeling studies.

Keywords

Flexible pavement, Deterioration model, Performance prediction, PCI, IRI

Şehirlerarası yol ağlarında bitümlü sıcak karışım kaplamalar için üstyapı performans tahmin modeli geliştirilmesi

Abstract

Önemli
bir altyapı yatırımı olan bitümlü sıcak karışım (BSK) üstyapıların
bozulmalarının doğru tahmin edilmesi, bakım ve onarım için ayrılan bütçenin
doğru olarak belirlenmesinde vazgeçilmez bir unsurdur. Çalışmada, Karayolları
Genel Müdürlüğünün (KGM) sorumluluğunda bulunan devlet yolu ve il yolu
statüsündeki BSK kaplamalı yollarda, gelecek yıllara ait performans tahmini
yapabilen bir üstyapı performans tahmin modeli geliştirilmiştir. Üstyapıların
performans göstergesi olarak uluslararası düzgünsüzlük indeksi (IRI)
kullanılmıştır. KGM tarafından yapım yılı bilinen yollarda mevcut üstyapı
bozulma bilgileri kullanılarak PAVER sistemi yardımıyla kesimlerin üstyapı
durum indeksi (PCI) bilgileri elde edilmiştir. Kesimlerin PCI ve yaşlarına
bağlı olarak deterministik regresyon modeli tekniği kullanılarak tahmin modeli
oluşturulmuştur. Sonrasında, aynı yol kesimlerinde PCI ve IRI arasındaki
matematiksel ilişki ortaya konmuştur. Elde edilen bu matematiksel ilişki oluşturulan
gelecek tahmin modeline entegre edilerek, ölçülen IRI değeri ve performansı
tahmin edilecek yıl bağımsız değişkenlerine bağlı olarak üstyapıların gelecek
yıllara ait IRI değerlerini belirleyen bir tahmin modeli elde edilmiştir. IRI
bozulma tahmin modelinin doğruluğu, modelleme çalışmalarında hiçbir şekilde
kullanılmayan veri setleri ile kontrol edilmiştir.

Keywords

Esnek üstyapı, Bozulma modeli, Performans tahmini, PCI, IRI

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